The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 24

2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies

Friday, October 24, 2025 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

MIA 0–0@MEM 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MIA 34 percent, MEM 66 percent. MIA Heat 34% proj. 114 · final 146 MEM Grizzlies · home 66% proj. 120 · final 114
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MIA Miami Heat 114 146 +32
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home) 120 114 −6

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMIAMEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14671522
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +124
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −1.3+3.8
Games played this season 11
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.6109.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 121.1113.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIA1467MEM1522

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIA1467

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1462 → started this one at 1472
  2. This season's 1 game: −4.2
  • L@ORL121–125−4.2

MEM1522

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1519
  2. This season's 1 game: +2.6
  • WNOP128–122+2.6
Season scoring marginMIA−1.3MEM+3.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIA−1.3

Scores 121.0, allows 125.0 over 1 game: −4.0 a game.

5% this season (−4.0) + 95% last season (−1.1) = −1.3

MEM+3.8

Scores 128.0, allows 122.0 over 1 game: +6.0 a game.

5% this season (+6.0) + 95% last season (+3.7) = +3.8

Offensive rating, last 10MIA111.6MEM109.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

MIA111.6scored, −2.1 vs league

FactorMIALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.2%54.3%+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.0%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.6%25.3%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1330.194−1.7
Everything else−2.1

MEM109.6scored, −4.0 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.3%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%12.0%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.4%25.3%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.194+0.8
Everything else−0.2
Defensive rating, last 10MIA121.1MEM113.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

MIA121.1allowed, +7.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.9%54.3%−5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.1%12.0%−2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.7%25.3%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.194−0.3
Everything else−1.1

MEM113.0allowed, −0.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.3%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.0%−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.7%25.3%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.194−0.7
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 100.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIA 98.7 and MEM 102.9 → average 100.8 (league 2024-25: 99.4)

Rotation points missingMIA0.0MEM0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-10-24 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-10-24 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestMIA2 daysMEM2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA2days

Last played Oct 22 against ORL.

MEM2days

Last played Oct 22 against NOP.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 22@ORL121–12544-9112-3521-271710109.0112.6111.0
Apr 28CLE83–13832-8910-499-15191584.7142.397.5
Apr 26CLE87–12432-7616-347-1016594.6136.391.5
Apr 23@CLE112–12142-8116-4512-16139117.9128.794.5
Apr 20@CLE100–12139-8013-319-121411114.9137.587.5
Apr 13WAS118–11949-9810-3210-1289114.6116.7102.5
Apr 11@NOP153–10458-10420-4517-22916143.098.1106.5
Apr 9@CHI111–11944-9212-3311-171311107.8116.7102.5
Apr 7PHI117–10545-8916-3611-151310120.6108.297.0
Apr 5MIL115–12143-10215-4614-161011108.5114.296.0

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 22NOP128–12241-8011-3735-43176117.4113.0108.5
Apr 26OKC115–11737-8012-3129-302110111.7114.7102.5
Apr 24OKC108–11436-8314-4222-26169108.0115.299.5
Apr 22@OKC99–11839-9110-3111-1414999.0118.0100.0
Apr 20@OKC80–13132-936-3410-12221373.4121.3108.5
Apr 13DAL132–9752-10415-4013-151118129.495.1102.0
Apr 11@DEN109–11741-9114-4313-19127105.8114.7102.5
Apr 10MIN125–14146-8918-3615-21158121.4138.2102.5
Apr 8@CHA124–10042-9318-5522-261314125.3101.099.0
Apr 5@DET109–10339-949-3222-291417104.899.0104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
34%
pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner
the forecast favored MEM
38 pts
margin miss
forecast +6, actual −32 for MEM
112th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
14th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.09 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMIAMEM
Final score146114
Field goals55–102 · 53.9%38–95 · 40.0%
Three-pointers19–40 · 47.5%13–45 · 28.9%
Free throws17–22 · 77.3%25–28 · 89.3%
Rebounds5741
Assists3429
Turnovers1920
Steals158
Blocks44

How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)+6−32−38
Total points234260+26
MIA points114146+32
MEM points120114−6

Recent form before this game

Miami Heat

DateOpponentResult
Oct 22 at ORL L 121–125
Apr 28 vs CLE L 83–138
Apr 26 vs CLE L 87–124
Apr 23 at CLE L 112–121
Apr 20 at CLE L 100–121

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Oct 22 vs NOP W 128–122
Apr 26 vs OKC L 115–117
Apr 24 vs OKC L 108–114
Apr 22 at OKC L 99–118
Apr 20 at OKC L 80–131

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 3 2024-25 MEM at MIA MEM 110 – 108 MIA
Mar 15 2024-25 MIA at MEM MIA 91 – 125 MEM
Jan 24 2023-24 MEM at MIA MEM 105 – 96 MIA
Nov 8 2023-24 MIA at MEM MIA 108 – 102 MEM
Mar 15 2022-23 MEM at MIA MEM 119 – 138 MIA