The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 31

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

ATL 3–3@NOP 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 64 percent, NOP 36 percent. ATL Hawks 64% proj. 123 · final 99 NOP Pelicans · home 36% proj. 118 · final 121
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 123 99 −24
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 118 121 +3

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans ATL

  • Home court+2.1 NOPWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+5.7 ATLElo NOP 1407, ATL 1553; season margin NOP −3.9, ATL +2.1.
  • Player availability+1.8 ATLNOP without Dejounte Murray (18 ppg) and Yves Missi (10 ppg) and 1 more.
  • Recent form+0.6 ATLLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: NOP scores 113.3 and allows 116.4; ATL scores 109.8 and allows 116.8.

Together: ATL by 5, a 64% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

ATL is 3–3, winning by 5 a game on average (scoring 119, allowing 114). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their defense lets opponents shoot 56% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +1.6, defensive rebounding −1.3.

NOP is 1–4, losing by 2 a game on average (scoring 119, allowing 122). Last season they were a −4 team, which still counts for 75% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 1.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: offensive rebounding −1.5, getting to the line +1.4. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Dejounte Murray, Yves Missi and Jordan Poole are out (33 rotation points a game combined).

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors NOP; left favors ATL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −5.7, Player availability −1.8, Recent form −0.6, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule −0.1, giving −5.9 for NOP. -8-40+4+8 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −5.7 Player availability −1.8 Recent form −0.6 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule −0.1 Projected margin −5.9
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −5.9. The 64% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputATLNOPEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15531407 −0.5
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −76 −4.6
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.1−3.9 −0.7
Games played this season 65 +0.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.8113.3 +0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.8116.4 −0.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 103.5 −0.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.033.3 −1.8
Rest days 22 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueNOP ptsATL ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-76.2−1.53+3.07−4.59
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)116.4+0.17+1.67−1.50
Rotation points missing (home)33.3−1.03+0.18−1.21
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)116.8+1.12+0.09+1.03
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)109.8−0.10−0.89+0.78
Combined pace, last 10103.5+4.59+5.23−0.64
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.12+0.52−0.64
Elo rating (home)1406.6−0.10+0.45−0.55
Season scoring margin (away)2.1−0.19+0.22−0.41
Season scoring margin (home)-3.9−0.12+0.20−0.32
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)113.3−0.34−0.08−0.25
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.06+0.18
Elo rating (away)1552.9+0.14+0.04+0.10
Games played (home)5.0+0.03−0.05+0.08
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.06−0.06
Series pressure0.0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Games played (away)6.0+0.25+0.28−0.03
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.03
Rest days (home)2.0−0.00+0.02−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1553NOP14075.0 pts toward ATL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1553

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
  2. This season's 6 games: +26.7
  • W@ORL132–125+11.1
  • W@CHA128–81+48.4
  • LHOU114–121−10.8
  • L@HOU110–120−7.3
  • LMIA117–129−19.4
  • WCLE114–111+4.7

NOP1407

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1399 → started this one at 1424
  2. This season's 5 games: −17.3
  • LIND120–123−8.2
  • L@UTA119–120−4.4
  • L@DEN135–141−2.5
  • LDEN91–104−9.0
  • WSAC132–120+6.8
Season scoring marginATL+2.1NOP−3.90.7 pts toward ATL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL+2.1

Scores 119.2, allows 114.5 over 6 games: +4.7 a game.

30% this season (+4.7) + 70% last season (+1.1) = +2.1

NOP−3.9

Scores 119.4, allows 121.6 over 5 games: −2.2 a game.

25% this season (−2.2) + 75% last season (−4.5) = −3.9

Offensive rating, last 10ATL109.8NOP113.30.5 pts toward NOP

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL109.8scored, −4.8 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.5%−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1810.210−0.8
Everything else+0.4

NOP113.3scored, −1.3 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.5%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.6%26.1%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2600.210+1.4
Everything else+1.5
Defensive rating, last 10ATL116.8NOP116.40.5 pts toward ATL

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL116.8allowed, +2.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.8%54.5%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.3%12.2%+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2490.210−1.1
Everything else+0.5

NOP116.4allowed, +1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.7%54.5%−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.2%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.1%26.1%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2340.210−0.7
Everything else+0.5
Pace, last 10average 103.50.6 pts toward ATL

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 100.8 and NOP 106.2 → average 103.5 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingATL0.0NOP33.31.8 pts toward ATL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

NOP33.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Dejounte Murray17.832.34
Yves Missi9.519.62
Jordan Poole6.015.94

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-31 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysNOP2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Oct 29 against CLE.

NOP2days

Last played Oct 29 against SAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 29CLE114–11142-9517-4313-181115116.3113.398.0
Oct 28MIA117–12946-9616-389-14159109.3120.6107.0
Oct 26@HOU110–12042-9811-3915-211313105.8114.3104.5
Oct 24HOU114–12143-9613-4915-211317115.2121.099.5
Oct 23@CHA128–8148-9518-4514-221212128.081.0100.0
Oct 21@ORL132–12544-9014-3630-361711118.9114.7110.0
Apr 30NYK89–14031-829-3518-23191189.0141.499.5
Apr 28@NYK97–12637-8313-4210-17105103.2134.094.0
Apr 25NYK98–11434-8310-4120-251812104.3121.394.0
Apr 23NYK109–10839-8613-3318-261613107.9106.9101.0

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 29SAC132–12050-8510-2922-32205118.9108.1111.0
Oct 28DEN91–10434-827-3016-2219890.1104.0100.5
Oct 24@DEN135–14150-9911-3824-301814116.4119.5106.0
Oct 23@UTA119–12044-878-2623-27159116.7117.6102.0
Oct 21IND120–12338-8910-3034-371414114.3117.1105.0
Apr 12@MIN126–13245-1075-2131-38917117.8122.2107.5
Apr 10@BOS118–14444-969-3221-30138112.4137.1105.0
Apr 7UTA156–13761-10614-3420-23168127.9112.3122.0
Apr 5ORL108–11235-8410-3128-36159102.9107.7104.5
Apr 3@SAC113–11740-8414-3419-21137115.3118.298.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
36%
pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner
the forecast favored ATL
27 pts
margin miss
forecast −5, actual +22 for NOP
15th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
12th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 1.03 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLNOP
Final score99121
Field goals35–91 · 38.5%43–76 · 56.6%
Three-pointers8–46 · 17.4%7–17 · 41.2%
Free throws21–23 · 91.3%28–35 · 80.0%
Rebounds3649
Assists2027
Turnovers1923
Steals1115
Blocks44

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)−5+22+27
Total points241220−21
ATL points12399−24
NOP points118121+3

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 29 vs CLE W 114–111
Oct 28 vs MIA L 117–129
Oct 26 at HOU L 110–120
Oct 24 vs HOU L 114–121
Oct 23 at CHA W 128–81

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Oct 29 vs SAC W 132–120
Oct 28 vs DEN L 91–104
Oct 24 at DEN L 135–141
Oct 23 at UTA L 119–120
Oct 21 vs IND L 120–123

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 7 2025-26 NOP at ATL NOP 100 – 117 ATL
Nov 22 2025-26 ATL at NOP ATL 115 – 98 NOP
Dec 2 2024-25 NOP at ATL NOP 112 – 124 ATL
Nov 3 2024-25 ATL at NOP ATL 126 – 111 NOP
Mar 10 2023-24 NOP at ATL NOP 116 – 103 ATL