The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 25

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

MEM 2–0@SAC 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 44 percent, SAC 56 percent. MEM Grizzlies 44% proj. 117 · final 123 SAC Kings · home 56% proj. 119 · final 112
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 117 123 +6
SAC Sacramento Kings (home) 119 112 −7

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans SAC

  • Home court+2.1 SACWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+0.8 MEMElo SAC 1357, MEM 1352; season margin SAC −10.7, MEM −4.4.

Together: SAC by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

SAC is 0–2, losing by 16 a game on average (scoring 108, allowing 124). Last season they were a −10 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 32% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −2.3, ball security −1.9. Their defense lets opponents shoot 58% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Keegan Murray (7 ppg) is out.

MEM is 2–0, winning by 12 a game on average (scoring 117, allowing 106). Last season they were a −6 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 17% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense lets opponents rebound 51% of their misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 11 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting defense −8, forcing turnovers +1.0. Zach Edey (7 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors SAC; left favors MEM.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −0.8, No playoff context +0.3, Recent form +0.3, Player availability +0.0, Rest and schedule −0.0, giving +1.9 for SAC. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −0.8 No playoff context +0.3 Recent form +0.3 Player availability +0.0 Rest and schedule −0.0 Projected margin +1.9
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +1.9. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputMEMSACEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13521357 −0.2
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +75 +0.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −4.4−10.7 −0.5
Games played this season 22 −0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 109.2112.0 +0.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 125.5120.7 −0.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.2 +0.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 7.07.0 +0.0
Rest days 22 −0.0
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueSAC ptsMEM ptsMargin
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)120.7+0.41+1.94−1.53
Season scoring margin (home)-10.7−0.90+0.44−1.33
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)109.2−0.03−0.89+0.85
Season scoring margin (away)-4.4+0.76−0.08+0.83
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)125.5+0.82+0.06+0.76
Elo rating (home)1356.6−0.14+0.61−0.76
Rotation points missing (home)7.0+0.54−0.10+0.63
Rotation points missing (away)7.0−0.06+0.55−0.61
Elo rating (away)1351.6+0.25−0.32+0.57
Games played (away)2.0+0.20+0.76−0.56
Combined pace, last 10101.3+3.01+2.46+0.55
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.0−0.40−0.01−0.39
Elo gap incl. home court74.9−0.68−0.94+0.26
Home series wins0.0+0.28+0.03+0.25
Games played (home)2.0+0.67+0.47+0.20
Series pressure0.0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.03
Rest days (home)2.0+0.00+0.02−0.01
Rest days (away)2.0+0.00+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1352SAC13570.1 pts toward SAC

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1352

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1273 → started this one at 1330
  2. This season's 2 games: +22.0
  • WUTA123–103+12.8
  • W@GSW111–108+9.2

SAC1357

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
  2. This season's 2 games: −12.8
  • L@LAC96–121−6.8
  • LPOR120–128−6.0
Season scoring marginMEM−4.4SAC−10.70.9 pts toward MEM

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−4.4

Scores 117.0, allows 105.5 over 2 games: +11.5 a game.

10% this season (+11.5) + 90% last season (−6.1) = −4.4

SAC−10.7

Scores 108.0, allows 124.5 over 2 games: −16.5 a game.

10% this season (−16.5) + 90% last season (−10.0) = −10.7

Offensive rating, last 10MEM109.2SAC112.00.5 pts toward SAC

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM109.2scored, −5.4 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.5%−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.7%12.2%−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)17.1%26.1%−4.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.210−0.7
Everything else+2.9

SAC112.0scored, −2.5 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.5%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.5%26.1%+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2090.210−0.0
Everything else−0.7
Defensive rating, last 10MEM125.5SAC120.70.8 pts toward MEM

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

MEM125.5allowed, +10.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.9%54.5%−8.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.2%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)50.5%26.1%−11.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2190.210−0.3
Everything else+7.5

SAC120.7allowed, +6.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.2%54.5%−5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.2%26.1%+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2250.210−0.4
Everything else−0.7
Pace, last 10average 101.20.6 pts toward SAC

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 102.8 and SAC 99.7 → average 101.3 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMEM7.0SAC7.0no effect on the margin

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM7.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Zach Edey7.021.82

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

SAC7.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Keegan Murray7.027.22

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-25 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysSAC2 daysno effect on the margin

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Oct 23 against GSW.

SAC2days

Last played Oct 23 against POR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@GSW111–10840-8615-3916-222518112.1108.099.5
Oct 21UTA123–10344-9313-3422-281315118.399.0104.0
Apr 12@HOU101–13239-9513-4910-1013398.1128.2103.0
Apr 10@UTA101–14741-10911-528-919483.5121.5121.0
Apr 8@DEN119–13642-9219-5016-2363119.0136.0100.0
Apr 6CLE126–14245-9429-597-10133122.3137.9103.0
Apr 5@MIL115–13138-9217-4622-28149112.7129.7101.5
Apr 3TOR96–12834-8511-4217-2620893.2125.5102.5
Apr 1NYK119–13039-7616-3625-30133126.6136.894.5
Mar 30PHX105–13138-7511-3018-20224106.1132.399.0

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23POR120–12842-918-3228-301410113.2120.8106.0
Oct 21@LAC96–12136-858-2816-28171191.4116.3104.5
Apr 12@POR110–12240-837-2123-311615112.2123.298.5
Apr 10GSW124–11841-8917-4425-341616121.6115.7102.0
Apr 7@GSW105–11041-8711-3112-171413111.7114.695.0
Apr 5LAC109–13845-859-3210-202011105.8135.3102.5
Apr 3NOP117–11346-9010-3315-201411118.2115.398.5
Apr 1@TOR123–11542-9212-3327-291319126.8117.397.5
Mar 29@BKN99–11636-8410-3217-251511103.1122.195.5
Mar 28@ATL113–12345-9312-3211-131514116.5126.897.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
44%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
the forecast favored SAC
13 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual −11 for SAC
37th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
49th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMSAC
Final score123112
Field goals42–96 · 43.8%44–95 · 46.3%
Three-pointers15–41 · 36.6%10–33 · 30.3%
Free throws24–27 · 88.9%14–22 · 63.6%
Rebounds5644
Assists2420
Turnovers1213
Steals58
Blocks75

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)+2−11−13
Total points236235−1
MEM points117123+6
SAC points119112−7

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at GSW W 111–108
Oct 21 vs UTA W 123–103
Apr 12 at HOU L 101–132
Apr 10 at UTA L 101–147
Apr 8 at DEN L 119–136

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 vs POR L 120–128
Oct 21 at LAC L 96–121
Apr 12 at POR L 110–122
Apr 10 vs GSW W 124–118
Apr 7 at GSW L 105–110

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 23 2025-26 SAC at MEM SAC 123 – 114 MEM
Feb 4 2025-26 MEM at SAC MEM 129 – 125 SAC
Nov 30 2025-26 MEM at SAC MEM 115 – 107 SAC
Nov 20 2025-26 SAC at MEM SAC 96 – 137 MEM
Mar 17 2024-25 MEM at SAC MEM 122 – 132 SAC