The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

ATL 3–4@IND 2–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 72 percent, IND 28 percent. ATL Hawks 72% proj. 119 · final 108 IND Pacers · home 28% proj. 111 · final 104
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 119 108 −11
IND Indiana Pacers (home) 111 104 −7

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans ATL

  • Home court+2.1 INDWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+7.3 ATLElo IND 1352, ATL 1530; season margin IND −6.5, ATL +1.0.
  • Player availability+5.7 ATLATL without Kingston Flemings (7 ppg) and Jock Landale (6 ppg); IND without Tyrese Haliburton (22 ppg) and Pascal Siakam (21 ppg) and 4 more.
  • Recent form+4.1 INDLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: IND scores 109.7 and allows 112.0; ATL scores 108.4 and allows 117.6.

Together: ATL by 8, a 72% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

ATL is 3–4, winning by 1 a game on average (scoring 116, allowing 115). Last season they were a +1 team, which still counts for 65% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Their offense is below average at everything: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +2.6, free throws allowed −1.6. Kingston Flemings and Jock Landale are out (13 rotation points a game combined).

IND is 2–5, losing by 4 a game on average (scoring 113, allowing 117). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 65% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 21% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 2.3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −1.3, ball security −1.3. Their defense holds opponents to 53% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding −1.4. Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Ivica Zubac and Larry Nance Jr. are out (86 rotation points a game combined). They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors IND; left favors ATL.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −7.3, Player availability −5.7, Recent form +4.1, Rest and schedule −0.4, No playoff context +0.2, giving −7.0 for IND. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −7.3 Player availability −5.7 Recent form +4.1 Rest and schedule −0.4 No playoff context +0.2 Projected margin −7.0
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −7.0. The 72% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputATLINDEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15301352 −0.3
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −109 −5.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.0−6.5 −1.2
Games played this season 77 −0.3
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.4109.7 +1.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 117.6112.0 +2.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.9 +0.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 13.486.1 −5.7
Rest days 21 −0.2
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueIND ptsATL ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-108.6−1.63+3.80−5.42
Rotation points missing (home)86.1−4.84+0.28−5.13
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)108.4+0.01−1.26+1.27
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)117.6+1.32+0.04+1.27
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)112.0−0.22−1.39+1.17
Season scoring margin (home)-6.5−0.63+0.32−0.95
Rotation points missing (away)13.4−0.04+0.53−0.57
Elo rating (home)1351.6−0.05+0.38−0.42
Combined pace, last 10101.9+3.34+2.98+0.35
Games played (away)7.0+0.03+0.37−0.34
Season scoring margin (away)1.0−0.17+0.12−0.29
Rest days (home)1.0−0.15+0.04−0.19
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.07+0.17
Back-to-back (home)1−0.09+0.07−0.16
Elo rating (away)1530.2+0.08−0.01+0.08
Series pressure0.0+0.04+0.01+0.03
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)109.7−0.11−0.10−0.02
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.01−0.01
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Games played (home)7.0−0.09−0.09−0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1530IND13525.8 pts toward ATL

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1530

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1526
  2. This season's 7 games: +4.0
  • W@ORL132–125+11.1
  • W@CHA128–81+48.4
  • LHOU114–121−10.8
  • L@HOU110–120−7.3
  • LMIA117–129−19.4
  • WCLE114–111+4.7
  • L@NOP99–121−22.7

IND1352

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1332 → started this one at 1374
  2. This season's 7 games: −22.7
  • W@NOP123–120+8.2
  • LDAL105–121−17.8
  • W@BKN136–109+21.5
  • L@MIL102–110−7.8
  • LPHI109–114−4.9
  • L@MIA125–145−7.3
  • LBKN90–98−14.6
Season scoring marginATL+1.0IND−6.51.6 pts toward ATL

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL+1.0

Scores 116.3, allows 115.4 over 7 games: +0.9 a game.

35% this season (+0.9) + 65% last season (+1.1) = +1.0

IND−6.5

Scores 112.9, allows 116.7 over 7 games: −3.9 a game.

35% this season (−3.9) + 65% last season (−8.0) = −6.5

Offensive rating, last 10ATL108.4IND109.71.3 pts toward IND

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL108.4scored, −6.2 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.2%54.5%−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.7%12.2%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1830.210−0.8
Everything else+0.8

IND109.7scored, −4.9 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.5%−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.9%26.1%−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.210−0.1
Everything else+0.2
Defensive rating, last 10ATL117.6IND112.02.4 pts toward IND

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

ATL117.6allowed, +3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.0%54.5%−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)14.0%12.2%+2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.0%26.1%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2660.210−1.6
Everything else+1.2

IND112.0allowed, −2.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.5%+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.2%−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.2%26.1%−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2330.210−0.7
Everything else+2.1
Pace, last 10average 101.90.4 pts toward IND

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 101.2 and IND 102.6 → average 101.9 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingATL13.4IND86.15.7 pts toward ATL

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL13.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Kingston Flemings7.120.37
Jock Landale6.315.37

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

IND86.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Tyrese Haliburton21.833.04
Pascal Siakam21.432.27
Andrew Nembhard18.532.76
Aaron Nesmith12.223.16
Ivica Zubac9.021.43
Larry Nance Jr.3.316.37

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysIND1 days0.4 pts toward ATL

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Oct 31 against NOP.

IND1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 1 against BKN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31@NOP99–12135-918-4621-23191494.3114.2105.5
Oct 29CLE114–11142-9517-4313-181115116.3113.398.0
Oct 28MIA117–12946-9616-389-14159109.3120.6107.0
Oct 26@HOU110–12042-9811-3915-211313105.8114.3104.5
Oct 24HOU114–12143-9613-4915-211317115.2121.099.5
Oct 23@CHA128–8148-9518-4514-221212128.081.0100.0
Oct 21@ORL132–12544-9014-3630-361711118.9114.7110.0
Apr 30NYK89–14031-829-3518-23191189.0141.499.5
Apr 28@NYK97–12637-8313-4210-17105103.2134.094.0
Apr 25NYK98–11434-8310-4120-251812104.3121.394.0

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 1BKN90–9828-7013-3521-3014997.8106.592.0
Oct 30@MIA125–14544-9117-3720-271314119.0139.4104.5
Oct 28PHI109–11436-879-3628-351513106.9110.7102.5
Oct 26@MIL102–11039-9613-4811-18131499.0104.8104.0
Oct 25@BKN136–10949-8521-4317-22144129.5103.8105.0
Oct 23DAL105–12139-887-3220-281913105.0121.0100.0
Oct 21@NOP123–12047-909-3020-29139117.1114.3105.0
Apr 12DET121–13341-9023-5416-20164115.2127.9104.5
Apr 10PHI94–10533-8814-5014-1621789.5101.0104.5
Apr 9@BKN123–9451-988-3113-18118118.390.4104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
72%
pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner
ATL was the forecast favorite
4 pts
margin miss
forecast −8, actual −4 for IND
112th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
111th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLIND
Final score108104
Field goals40–103 · 38.8%38–80 · 47.5%
Three-pointers23–51 · 45.1%8–34 · 23.5%
Free throws5–8 · 62.5%20–23 · 87.0%
Rebounds4939
Assists3022
Turnovers1618
Steals1212
Blocks49

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Indiana Pacers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (IND)−8−4+4
Total points230212−18
ATL points119108−11
IND points111104−7

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 at NOP L 99–121
Oct 29 vs CLE W 114–111
Oct 28 vs MIA L 117–129
Oct 26 at HOU L 110–120
Oct 24 vs HOU L 114–121

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Nov 1 vs BKN L 90–98
Oct 30 at MIA L 125–145
Oct 28 vs PHI L 109–114
Oct 26 at MIL L 102–110
Oct 25 at BKN W 136–109

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 31 2025-26 ATL at IND ATL 124 – 129 IND
Jan 26 2025-26 IND at ATL IND 116 – 132 ATL
Oct 31 2025-26 ATL at IND ATL 128 – 108 IND
Mar 8 2024-25 IND at ATL IND 118 – 120 ATL
Mar 6 2024-25 IND at ATL IND 118 – 124 ATL