The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 30

2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers

Thursday, April 30, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

BOS 3–4@PHI 5–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 60 percent, PHI 40 percent. BOS Celtics 60% proj. 113 · final 93 PHI 76ers · home 40% proj. 109 · final 106
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 113 93 −20
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) 109 106 −3

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 60% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
40%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
17 pts
margin miss
forecast −4, actual +13 for PHI
210th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
292nd
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.93 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSPHI
Final score93106
Field goals36–86 · 41.9%39–89 · 43.8%
Three-pointers12–41 · 29.3%11–33 · 33.3%
Free throws9–16 · 56.3%17–19 · 89.5%
Rebounds4648
Assists1822
Turnovers1310
Steals77
Blocks36

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)−4+13+17
Total points222199−23
BOS points11393−20
PHI points109106−3

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-30 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Boston Celtics

No players listed.

Philadelphia 76ers

No players listed.

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Apr 28 vs PHI L 97–113
Apr 26 at PHI W 128–96
Apr 24 at PHI W 108–100
Apr 21 vs PHI L 97–111
Apr 19 vs PHI W 123–91

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Apr 28 at BOS W 113–97
Apr 26 vs BOS L 96–128
Apr 24 vs BOS L 100–108
Apr 21 at BOS W 111–97
Apr 19 at BOS L 91–123

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 28 2025-26 PHI at BOS PHI 113 – 97 BOS
Apr 26 2025-26 BOS at PHI BOS 128 – 96 PHI
Apr 24 2025-26 BOS at PHI BOS 108 – 100 PHI
Apr 21 2025-26 PHI at BOS PHI 111 – 97 BOS
Apr 19 2025-26 PHI at BOS PHI 91 – 123 BOS