2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies

Thursday, November 20, 2025 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAC 0–0@MEM 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAC Sacramento Kings	116	96	−20
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home)	115	137	+22

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAC	MEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1417	1443
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+96
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−8.6	−5.1
Games played this season	15	15
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.8	105.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	122.2	116.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	19.9	32.0
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAC1417MEM1443

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAC1417

Ended last season at 1499 → started this one at 1499
First 5 games: −21.8
Last 10 games: −59.9

W@MIL135–133+7.9
L@DEN124–130−3.3
WGSW121–116+7.8
LOKC101–132−11.1
LMIN117–144−16.0
LDEN108–122−8.4
LATL100–133−24.6
L@MIN110–124−3.7
L@SAS110–123−6.8
L@OKC99–113−1.7

MEM1443

Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1519
First 5 games: −10.7
Last 10 games: −65.1

LLAL112–117−7.8
L@TOR104–117−12.1
LDET106–114−9.8
LHOU109–124−10.9
WDAL118–104+7.3
LOKC100–114−5.6
L@NYK120–133−5.0
L@BOS95–131−11.7
L@CLE100–108−3.2
L@SAS101–111−6.3

Season scoring marginSAC−8.6MEM−5.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAC−8.6

Scores 112.0, allows 123.6 over 15 games: −11.6 a game.

75% this season (−11.6) + 25% last season (+0.5) = −8.6

MEM−5.1

Scores 111.1, allows 119.2 over 15 games: −8.1 a game.

75% this season (−8.1) + 25% last season (+3.7) = −5.1

Offensive rating, last 10SAC108.8MEM105.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

SAC108.8scored, −5.8 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.6%	54.4%	−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.7%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.1%	26.4%	−2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.228	−0.2
Everything else			−0.8

MEM105.9scored, −8.7 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	48.5%	54.4%	−8.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.7%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.0%	26.4%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.219	0.228	−0.3
Everything else			+0.9

Defensive rating, last 10SAC122.2MEM116.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

SAC122.2allowed, +7.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.2%	54.4%	−8.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.7%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.7%	26.4%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.229	0.228	−0.0
Everything else			+1.1

MEM116.7allowed, +2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.2%	54.4%	−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.7%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.5%	26.4%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.189	0.228	+1.1
Everything else			−0.2

Pace, last 10average 102.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAC 103.8 and MEM 100.6 → average 102.2 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.3)

Rotation points missingSAC19.9MEM32.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAC19.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Domantas Sabonis	19.9	33.0	7

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-20 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MEM32.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jaren Jackson Jr.	18.0	30.1	10
Ja Morant	14.0	29.3	7

Source: official injury report, 2025-11-20 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestSAC1 daysMEM2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAC1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 19 against OKC.

MEM2days

Last played Nov 18 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 19	@OKC	99–113	38-86	8-28	15-23	18	12	96.1	108.7	103.5
Nov 16	@SAS	110–123	41-87	12-33	16-22	12	5	108.9	119.4	102.0
Nov 14	@MIN	110–124	41-93	12-33	16-27	15	13	104.8	119.2	104.5
Nov 12	ATL	100–133	36-92	14-39	14-18	18	9	92.6	122.0	108.5
Nov 11	DEN	108–122	41-85	10-33	16-23	10	9	112.5	125.8	96.5
Nov 9	MIN	117–144	40-90	13-29	24-31	16	12	110.4	135.8	106.0
Nov 7	OKC	101–132	38-92	15-40	10-15	15	8	97.1	125.7	104.5
Nov 5	GSW	121–116	41-83	11-23	28-33	16	8	113.1	109.4	106.5
Nov 3	@DEN	124–130	47-90	9-27	21-25	15	8	115.9	121.5	107.0
Nov 1	@MIL	135–133	45-87	10-28	35-40	9	11	136.4	134.3	99.0

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 18	@SAS	101–111	42-104	12-39	5-9	14	21	104.1	114.4	97.0
Nov 15	@CLE	100–108	31-86	9-32	29-40	15	11	94.3	102.9	105.5
Nov 12	@BOS	95–131	32-95	10-43	21-26	10	15	99.0	136.5	96.0
Nov 11	@NYK	120–133	43-84	14-38	20-24	22	5	108.1	120.9	110.5
Nov 9	OKC	100–114	35-91	17-44	13-18	14	11	101.0	114.0	99.5
Nov 7	DAL	118–104	41-85	13-35	23-28	13	7	116.8	104.0	100.5
Nov 5	HOU	109–124	34-89	13-39	28-35	15	13	103.8	118.1	105.0
Nov 3	DET	106–114	35-87	14-41	22-25	20	18	108.2	115.2	98.5
Nov 2	@TOR	104–117	38-87	11-35	17-20	11	11	108.3	121.9	96.0
Oct 31	LAL	112–117	41-93	14-45	16-19	11	13	115.5	119.4	97.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

47%

pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner

the forecast favored SAC

42 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual +41 for MEM

379th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

11th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAC	MEM
Final score	96	137
Field goals	37–80 · 46.3%	50–99 · 50.5%
Three-pointers	11–33 · 33.3%	17–54 · 31.5%
Free throws	11–15 · 73.3%	20–26 · 76.9%
Rebounds	32	49
Assists	24	42
Turnovers	16	7
Steals	5	11
Blocks	5	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Sacramento Kings · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)	−1	+41	+42
Total points	231	233	+2
SAC points	116	96	−20
MEM points	115	137	+22

Recent form before this game