The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 17

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls

Sunday, November 17, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

HOU 0–0@CHI 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: HOU 61 percent, CHI 39 percent. HOU Rockets 61% proj. 118 · final 143 CHI Bulls · home 39% proj. 113 · final 107
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
HOU Houston Rockets 118 143 +25
CHI Chicago Bulls (home) 113 107 −6

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputHOUCHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15551457
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −27
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.5−4.4
Games played this season 1313
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.0113.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 105.5118.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingHOU1555CHI1457

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

HOU1555

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1516 → started this one at 1512
  2. First 3 games: −12.2
  3. Last 10 games: +54.9
  • W@SAS106–101+7.0
  • W@DAL108–102+13.9
  • LGSW121–127−7.0
  • WNYK109–97+11.4
  • WSAS127–100+10.6
  • L@OKC107–126−6.4
  • W@DET101–99+3.6
  • WWAS107–92+3.5
  • WLAC111–103+6.6
  • WLAC125–104+11.7

CHI1457

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1475 → started this one at 1481
  2. First 3 games: −2.0
  3. Last 10 games: −22.0
  • W@MEM126–123+5.0
  • WORL102–99+5.2
  • L@BKN112–120−8.3
  • LUTA126–135−18.0
  • L@DAL99–119−6.1
  • LMIN119–135−10.5
  • W@ATL125–113+14.9
  • LCLE113–119−5.7
  • W@NYK124–123+7.0
  • L@CLE126–144−5.5
Season scoring marginHOU+4.5CHI−4.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

HOU+4.5

Scores 112.4, allows 106.0 over 13 games: +6.4 a game.

65% this season (+6.4) + 35% last season (+1.1) = +4.5

CHI−4.4

Scores 116.2, allows 122.2 over 13 games: −6.0 a game.

65% this season (−6.0) + 35% last season (−1.4) = −4.4

Offensive rating, last 10HOU113.0CHI113.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

HOU113.0scored, +0.4 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.1%53.9%−4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%12.4%+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.2%24.7%+2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.202−0.6
Everything else−0.0

CHI113.2scored, +0.6 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%53.9%+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%12.4%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.3%24.7%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.202−0.5
Everything else+0.2
Defensive rating, last 10HOU105.5CHI118.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

HOU105.5allowed, −7.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%53.9%+5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.4%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.8%24.7%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.202−0.1
Everything else+1.1

CHI118.6allowed, +6.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.7%53.9%−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.4%−2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.5%24.7%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.202+0.6
Everything else−0.7
Pace, last 10average 101.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

HOU 98.4 and CHI 103.7 → average 101.1 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingHOU0.0CHI0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-17 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-17 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestHOU2 daysCHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

HOU2days

Last played Nov 15 against LAC.

CHI2days

Last played Nov 15 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 15LAC125–10446-9519-4414-18129119.098.1105.5
Nov 13LAC111–10342-9715-4012-171318111.0105.199.0
Nov 11WAS107–9240-875-2322-251917104.990.2102.0
Nov 10@DET101–9938-937-3418-241117106.3103.195.5
Nov 8@OKC107–12639-9011-3018-261714103.9122.3103.0
Nov 6SAS127–10054-9610-279-151111123.397.1103.0
Nov 4NYK109–9743-888-3315-181011117.2105.492.5
Nov 2GSW121–12744-10715-4518-241118113.1118.796.9
Oct 31@DAL108–10240-978-3420-27818116.1107.494.0
Oct 28@SAS106–10135-8515-3721-241213115.2107.493.0

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Nov 15@CLE126–14445-8820-4216-20173115.6132.1109.0
Nov 13@NYK124–12344-8214-3622-27187120.4118.3103.5
Nov 11CLE113–11943-8714-3813-16208109.7114.4103.5
Nov 9@ATL125–11346-9213-3920-231713120.2106.6105.0
Nov 7MIN119–13547-8815-3610-151310122.7137.897.5
Nov 6@DAL99–11936-8612-4215-23221492.5111.2107.0
Nov 4UTA126–13545-9514-3722-25910122.3131.1103.0
Nov 1@BKN112–12038-8817-4419-241610108.7118.8102.0
Oct 30ORL102–9936-8413-3417-25149100.097.1102.0
Oct 28@MEM126–12345-10025-5311-17911120.0118.3104.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
61%
pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner
HOU was the forecast favorite
31 pts
margin miss
forecast −5, actual −36 for CHI
691st
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
46th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.49 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statHOUCHI
Final score143107
Field goals55–105 · 52.4%36–107 · 33.6%
Three-pointers10–34 · 29.4%14–56 · 25.0%
Free throws23–32 · 71.9%21–22 · 95.5%
Rebounds6647
Assists3426
Turnovers1013
Steals88
Blocks97

How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)−5−36−31
Total points231250+19
HOU points118143+25
CHI points113107−6

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
HOU27414035–143
CHI26262629–107

Recent form before this game

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Nov 15 vs LAC W 125–104
Nov 13 vs LAC W 111–103
Nov 11 vs WAS W 107–92
Nov 10 at DET W 101–99
Nov 8 at OKC L 107–126

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Nov 15 at CLE L 126–144
Nov 13 at NYK W 124–123
Nov 11 vs CLE L 113–119
Nov 9 at ATL W 125–113
Nov 7 vs MIN L 119–135

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 21 2023-24 CHI at HOU CHI 117 – 127 HOU
Jan 10 2023-24 HOU at CHI HOU 119 – 124 CHI
Mar 11 2022-23 CHI at HOU CHI 119 – 111 HOU
Dec 26 2022-23 HOU at CHI HOU 133 – 118 CHI
Dec 20 2021-22 HOU at CHI HOU 118 – 133 CHI