The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 26

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls

Monday, December 26, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

HOU 2–0@CHI 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: HOU 28 percent, CHI 72 percent. HOU Rockets 28% proj. 106 · final 133 CHI Bulls · home 72% proj. 115 · final 118
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
HOU Houston Rockets 106 133 +27
CHI Chicago Bulls (home) 115 118 +3

Forecast: Chicago Bulls to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputHOUCHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13441484
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +210
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −5.8−1.3
Games played this season 3232
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.3114.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.8116.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.011.3
Rest days 33
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingHOU1344CHI1484

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

HOU1344

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1311 → started this one at 1359
  2. First 22 games: +2.7
  3. Last 10 games: −17.4
  • L@GSW101–120−3.8
  • WPHI132–123+14.9
  • L@SAS109–118−8.2
  • WMIL97–92+11.6
  • WPHX111–97+19.4
  • LMIA108–111−4.5
  • LPOR95–107−12.2
  • LSAS105–124−21.7
  • LORL110–116−8.2
  • LDAL106–112−4.7

CHI1484

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1426 → started this one at 1444
  2. First 22 games: +33.7
  3. Last 10 games: +5.7
  • L@SAC101–110−6.3
  • WWAS115–111+4.3
  • WDAL144–115+23.5
  • L@ATL122–123−3.1
  • LNYK120–128−10.3
  • LNYK91–114−19.1
  • L@MIN126–150−13.2
  • W@MIA113–103+16.6
  • W@ATL110–108+6.6
  • W@NYK118–117+6.7
Season scoring marginHOU−5.8CHI−1.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

HOU−5.8

Scores 109.4, allows 115.3 over 32 games: −5.8 a game.

CHI−1.3

Scores 113.2, allows 114.5 over 32 games: −1.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10HOU107.3CHI114.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.5).

HOU107.3scored, −5.2 vs league

FactorHOULeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.0%54.2%−7.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.6%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.7%23.7%+4.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.210+0.1
Everything else−0.8

CHI114.7scored, +2.1 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.1%54.2%+5.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.6%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)15.4%23.7%−3.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1890.210−0.6
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10HOU112.8CHI116.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.5).

HOU112.8allowed, +0.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.7%54.2%−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.6%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.1%23.7%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1960.210+0.4
Everything else−0.5

CHI116.1allowed, +3.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.8%54.2%−4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.6%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.8%23.7%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1960.210+0.4
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 98.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

HOU 97.7 and CHI 99.5 → average 98.6 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingHOU0.0CHI11.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

CHI11.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Derrick Jones Jr.6.816.58
Alex Caruso4.523.18

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestHOU3 daysCHI3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

HOU3days

Last played Dec 23 against DAL.

CHI3days

Last played Dec 23 against NYK.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

HOU

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 23DAL106–11237-818-2624-281412110.4115.596.5
Dec 21ORL110–11641-8817-4311-17169107.8114.9101.5
Dec 19SAS105–12440-945-2420-311116105.0122.8100.5
Dec 17POR95–10736-903-2920-29151899.0113.895.0
Dec 15MIA108–11144-949-3311-171418110.2114.497.5
Dec 13PHX111–9734-8112-3531-342217109.997.0100.5
Dec 11MIL97–9240-916-2711-12121099.093.998.0
Dec 8@SAS109–11844-9810-2911-151416110.1120.498.5
Dec 5PHI132–12342-9414-3934-441916118.9110.891.9
Dec 3@GSW101–12040-913-2818-201514103.1125.097.0

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 23@NYK118–11745-9314-3114-18411128.3125.892.5
Dec 21@ATL110–10843-867-2417-22118108.9106.9101.0
Dec 20@MIA113–10340-7313-3120-24165118.9108.495.0
Dec 18@MIN126–15046-8816-3818-24116124.8148.5101.0
Dec 16NYK91–11436-7712-307-820291.9115.299.0
Dec 14NYK120–12846-849-2819-22123115.4123.194.2
Dec 11@ATL122–12348-1007-2719-231813108.9108.8101.9
Dec 10DAL144–11554-8519-3417-2484144.0112.7101.0
Dec 7WAS115–11145-9010-2315-17196107.5104.7106.5
Dec 4@SAC101–11038-869-2516-1916798.1106.8103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner
the forecast favored CHI
24 pts
margin miss
forecast +9, actual −15 for CHI
45th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
86th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.28 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statHOUCHI
Final score133118
Field goals50–90 · 55.6%45–92 · 48.9%
Three-pointers17–44 · 38.6%13–35 · 37.1%
Free throws16–22 · 72.7%15–21 · 71.4%
Rebounds4535
Assists2827
Turnovers128
Steals76
Blocks52

How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Chicago Bulls

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHI)+9−15−24
Total points221251+30
HOU points106133+27
CHI points115118+3

Recent form before this game

Houston Rockets

DateOpponentResult
Dec 23 vs DAL L 106–112
Dec 21 vs ORL L 110–116
Dec 19 vs SAS L 105–124
Dec 17 vs POR L 95–107
Dec 15 vs MIA L 108–111

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Dec 23 at NYK W 118–117
Dec 21 at ATL W 110–108
Dec 20 at MIA W 113–103
Dec 18 at MIN L 126–150
Dec 16 vs NYK L 91–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 20 2021-22 HOU at CHI HOU 118 – 133 CHI
Nov 24 2021-22 CHI at HOU CHI 113 – 118 HOU