2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks
Wednesday, November 13, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded
CHI 0–1@NYK 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Chicago Bulls | 112 | 124 | +12 |
| NYK New York Knicks (home) | 122 | 123 | +1 |
Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 10.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | CHI | NYK |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1456 | 1569 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +183 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −3.7 | +3.9 |
| Games played this season | 11 | 10 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 110.1 | 118.6 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 114.8 | 114.0 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.6 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 4.5 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingCHI1456NYK1569
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
CHI1456
- Ended last season at 1475 → started this one at 1481
- First 1 games: −6.8
- Last 10 games: −18.7
- W@MIL133–122+16.6
- LOKC95–114−11.8
- W@MEM126–123+5.0
- WORL102–99+5.2
- L@BKN112–120−8.3
- LUTA126–135−18.0
- L@DAL99–119−6.1
- LMIN119–135−10.5
- W@ATL125–113+14.9
- LCLE113–119−5.7
NYK1569
- Ended last season at 1577 → started this one at 1558
- This season's 10 games: +11.3
- L@BOS109–132−7.7
- WIND123–98+16.5
- LCLE104–110−10.5
- W@MIA116–107+11.0
- W@DET128–98+12.0
- L@HOU97–109−11.4
- L@ATL116–121−8.5
- WMIL116–94+9.3
- L@IND121–132−9.3
- W@PHI111–99+9.9
Season scoring marginCHI−3.7NYK+3.9
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
CHI−3.7
Scores 114.6, allows 120.2 over 11 games: −5.5 a game.
55% this season (−5.5) + 45% last season (−1.4) = −3.7
NYK+3.9
Scores 114.1, allows 110.0 over 10 games: +4.1 a game.
50% this season (+4.1) + 50% last season (+3.7) = +3.9
Offensive rating, last 10CHI110.1NYK118.6
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.5).
CHI110.1scored, −2.5 vs league
| Factor | CHI | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.3% | 53.9% | +0.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.3% | 12.5% | −1.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.5% | 24.6% | −0.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.180 | 0.203 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
NYK118.6scored, +6.0 vs league
| Factor | NYK | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.7% | 53.9% | +4.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.8% | 12.5% | +2.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.8% | 24.6% | −0.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.182 | 0.203 | −0.6 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Defensive rating, last 10CHI114.8NYK114.0
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.5).
CHI114.8allowed, +2.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.4% | 53.9% | −0.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.1% | 12.5% | −3.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.4% | 24.6% | +1.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.178 | 0.203 | +0.7 | |
| Everything else | +0.1 |
NYK114.0allowed, +1.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.8% | 53.9% | −1.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.5% | 12.5% | −2.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.4% | 24.6% | +1.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.176 | 0.203 | +0.8 | |
| Everything else | +0.8 |
Pace, last 10average 100.6
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
CHI 104.8 and NYK 96.5 → average 100.6 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)
Rotation points missingCHI4.5NYK0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
CHI4.5pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | 4.5 | 16.8 | 2 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-11-13 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
NYK0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2024-11-13 17:30 ET. 6 rotation players.
RestCHI2 daysNYK1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
CHI2days
Last played Nov 11 against CLE.
NYK1day, back-to-back
Last played Nov 12 against PHI.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
CHI
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | CLE | 113–119 | 43-87 | 14-38 | 13-16 | 20 | 8 | 109.7 | 114.4 | 103.5 |
| Nov 9 | @ATL | 125–113 | 46-92 | 13-39 | 20-23 | 17 | 13 | 120.2 | 106.6 | 105.0 |
| Nov 7 | MIN | 119–135 | 47-88 | 15-36 | 10-15 | 13 | 10 | 122.7 | 137.8 | 97.5 |
| Nov 6 | @DAL | 99–119 | 36-86 | 12-42 | 15-23 | 22 | 14 | 92.5 | 111.2 | 107.0 |
| Nov 4 | UTA | 126–135 | 45-95 | 14-37 | 22-25 | 9 | 10 | 122.3 | 131.1 | 103.0 |
| Nov 1 | @BKN | 112–120 | 38-88 | 17-44 | 19-24 | 16 | 10 | 108.7 | 118.8 | 102.0 |
| Oct 30 | ORL | 102–99 | 36-84 | 13-34 | 17-25 | 14 | 9 | 100.0 | 97.1 | 102.0 |
| Oct 28 | @MEM | 126–123 | 45-100 | 25-53 | 11-17 | 9 | 11 | 120.0 | 118.3 | 104.5 |
| Oct 26 | OKC | 95–114 | 32-92 | 15-53 | 16-22 | 26 | 11 | 82.6 | 99.1 | 115.0 |
| Oct 25 | @MIL | 133–122 | 46-96 | 21-47 | 20-23 | 9 | 9 | 122.0 | 114.0 | 108.0 |
NYK
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | @PHI | 111–99 | 44-89 | 9-31 | 14-15 | 15 | 8 | 111.0 | 99.0 | 100.0 |
| Nov 10 | @IND | 121–132 | 46-83 | 7-25 | 22-27 | 13 | 8 | 122.2 | 133.3 | 99.0 |
| Nov 8 | MIL | 116–94 | 43-91 | 14-46 | 16-19 | 7 | 14 | 123.4 | 98.9 | 94.5 |
| Nov 6 | @ATL | 116–121 | 41-84 | 22-47 | 12-15 | 15 | 7 | 116.0 | 122.2 | 99.5 |
| Nov 4 | @HOU | 97–109 | 34-88 | 11-28 | 18-21 | 10 | 13 | 105.4 | 117.2 | 92.5 |
| Nov 1 | @DET | 128–98 | 52-101 | 18-38 | 6-10 | 9 | 12 | 129.3 | 99.0 | 99.0 |
| Oct 30 | @MIA | 116–107 | 40-82 | 18-40 | 18-20 | 9 | 7 | 123.4 | 112.6 | 94.5 |
| Oct 28 | CLE | 104–110 | 40-90 | 9-28 | 15-18 | 16 | 13 | 108.3 | 112.2 | 97.0 |
| Oct 25 | IND | 123–98 | 44-84 | 12-27 | 23-29 | 11 | 11 | 126.8 | 100.0 | 97.5 |
| Oct 22 | @BOS | 109–132 | 43-78 | 11-30 | 12-16 | 11 | 5 | 119.8 | 145.1 | 91.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | CHI | NYK |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 124 | 123 |
| Field goals | 44–82 · 53.7% | 48–94 · 51.1% |
| Three-pointers | 14–36 · 38.9% | 15–37 · 40.5% |
| Free throws | 22–27 · 81.5% | 12–18 · 66.7% |
| Rebounds | 40 | 40 |
| Assists | 31 | 31 |
| Turnovers | 18 | 15 |
| Steals | 10 | 7 |
| Blocks | 6 | 3 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · New York Knicks
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (NYK) | +10 | −1 | −11 |
| Total points | 234 | 247 | +13 |
| CHI points | 112 | 124 | +12 |
| NYK points | 122 | 123 | +1 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 30 | 31 | 34 | – | 124 |
| NYK | 22 | 25 | 38 | 38 | – | 123 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 2023-24 | CHI at NYK | CHI 119 – 120 NYK |
| Apr 9 2023-24 | NYK at CHI | NYK 128 – 117 CHI |
| Apr 5 2023-24 | NYK at CHI | NYK 100 – 108 CHI |
| Jan 3 2023-24 | CHI at NYK | CHI 100 – 116 NYK |
| Dec 23 2022-23 | CHI at NYK | CHI 118 – 117 NYK |