2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets

Saturday, November 23, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 1–1@HOU 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	107	104	−3
HOU Houston Rockets (home)	119	98	−21

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 79% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	HOU
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1377	1587
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+281
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−8.5	+8.3
Games played this season	16	17
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	103.6	112.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	110.8	99.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	31.5	0.0
Rest days	1	1
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1377HOU1587

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1377

Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
First 6 games: +10.3
Last 10 games: +20.0

L@PHX97–103−1.9
W@NOP118–100+28.1
L@SAS105–118−7.5
L@MIN102–127−4.5
LMEM89–134−30.2
WMIN122–108+23.1
WMIN106–98+14.6
WATL114–110+6.3
L@OKC99–109−2.0
L@HOU88–116−6.0

HOU1587

Ended last season at 1516 → started this one at 1512
First 7 games: +13.1
Last 10 games: +62.3

WSAS127–100+10.6
L@OKC107–126−6.4
W@DET101–99+3.6
WWAS107–92+3.5
WLAC111–103+6.6
WLAC125–104+11.7
W@CHI143–107+22.6
L@MIL100–101−4.6
WIND130–113+8.7
WPOR116–88+6.0

Season scoring marginPOR−8.5HOU+8.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−8.5

Scores 105.6, allows 114.0 over 16 games: −8.4 a game.

80% this season (−8.4) + 20% last season (−9.0) = −8.5

HOU+8.3

Scores 114.7, allows 105.1 over 17 games: +9.6 a game.

85% this season (+9.6) + 15% last season (+1.1) = +8.3

Offensive rating, last 10POR103.6HOU112.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

POR103.6scored, −9.1 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.1%	53.9%	−7.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.5%	12.4%	−3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.5%	24.8%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.184	0.200	−0.5
Everything else			+0.0

HOU112.3scored, −0.3 vs league

Factor	HOU	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	53.9%	−2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.4%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.8%	24.8%	+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.176	0.200	−0.7
Everything else			−0.5

Defensive rating, last 10POR110.8HOU99.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

POR110.8allowed, −1.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.3%	53.9%	−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.5%	12.4%	+2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.9%	24.8%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.202	0.200	−0.1
Everything else			+0.9

HOU99.8allowed, −12.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	48.8%	53.9%	+7.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	12.4%	+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.1%	24.8%	+3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.185	0.200	+0.4
Everything else			−0.5

Pace, last 10average 102.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 101.1 and HOU 103.6 → average 102.3 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingPOR31.5HOU0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR31.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Deandre Ayton	12.0	26.3	5
Robert Williams III	10.2	19.9	6
Scoot Henderson	9.3	25.0	9

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-23 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-23 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestPOR1 daysHOU1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 22 against HOU.

HOU1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 22 against POR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 22	@HOU	88–116	30-91	11-43	17-22	20	11	85.4	112.6	103.0
Nov 20	@OKC	99–109	32-79	15-38	20-28	22	16	100.0	110.1	99.0
Nov 17	ATL	114–110	44-95	14-38	12-19	20	18	111.8	106.8	102.5
Nov 13	MIN	106–98	38-83	9-25	21-23	19	11	103.9	97.0	101.5
Nov 12	MIN	122–108	43-84	18-32	18-20	19	11	120.8	106.9	101.0
Nov 10	MEM	89–134	34-100	4-42	17-21	23	16	80.9	120.7	110.5
Nov 8	@MIN	102–127	39-91	6-25	18-24	16	12	99.0	122.1	103.5
Nov 7	@SAS	105–118	41-86	9-32	14-22	14	14	110.5	125.5	94.5
Nov 4	@NOP	118–100	46-84	10-29	16-24	11	11	128.3	106.4	93.0
Nov 2	@PHX	97–103	37-111	14-43	9-11	6	14	95.1	100.0	102.5

HOU

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 22	POR	116–88	42-93	15-39	17-25	17	12	112.6	85.4	103.0
Nov 20	IND	130–113	47-102	12-36	24-33	13	13	115.0	100.0	113.0
Nov 18	@MIL	100–101	40-100	9-32	11-13	12	16	101.0	102.0	99.0
Nov 17	@CHI	143–107	55-105	10-34	23-32	10	14	126.5	94.7	113.0
Nov 15	LAC	125–104	46-95	19-44	14-18	12	9	119.0	98.1	105.5
Nov 13	LAC	111–103	42-97	15-40	12-17	13	18	111.0	105.1	99.0
Nov 11	WAS	107–92	40-87	5-23	22-25	19	17	104.9	90.2	102.0
Nov 10	@DET	101–99	38-93	7-34	18-24	11	17	106.3	103.1	95.5
Nov 8	@OKC	107–126	39-90	11-30	18-26	17	14	103.9	122.3	103.0
Nov 6	SAS	127–100	54-96	10-27	9-15	11	11	123.3	97.1	103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

21%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored HOU

18 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −6 for HOU

16th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

232nd

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.56 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	HOU
Final score	104	98
Field goals	34–90 · 37.8%	32–90 · 35.6%
Three-pointers	18–44 · 40.9%	8–32 · 25.0%
Free throws	18–23 · 78.3%	26–33 · 78.8%
Rebounds	53	43
Assists	16	17
Turnovers	16	9
Steals	5	8
Blocks	12	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)	+12	−6	−18
Total points	226	202	−24
POR points	107	104	−3
HOU points	119	98	−21

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
POR	26	26	21	31	–	104
HOU	21	29	21	27	–	98

Recent form before this game