The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 14

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers

Sunday, April 14, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

ATL 3–3@IND 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 39 percent, IND 61 percent. ATL Hawks 39% proj. 114 · final 115 IND Pacers · home 61% proj. 117 · final 157
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 114 115 +1
IND Indiana Pacers (home) 117 157 +40

Forecast: Indiana Pacers to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputATLIND
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14651578
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +183
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −1.7+2.6
Games played this season 8181
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.6123.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.2118.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 27.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1465IND1578

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1465

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1512 → started this one at 1509
  2. First 71 games: −32.5
  3. Last 10 games: −11.2
  • WPOR120–106+4.5
  • WBOS123–122+7.4
  • LMIL113–122−9.0
  • W@CHI113–101+15.1
  • WDET121–113+2.5
  • L@DAL95–109−5.4
  • L@DEN110–142−8.7
  • LMIA111–117−7.7
  • LCHA114–115−8.2
  • L@MIN106–109−1.7

IND1578

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1394 → started this one at 1421
  2. First 71 games: +147.0
  3. Last 10 games: +10.6
  • L@LAL145–150−6.1
  • W@LAC133–116+17.8
  • L@CHI99–125−23.7
  • WLAL109–90+12.1
  • WBKN133–111+7.1
  • L@BKN111–115−8.2
  • WOKC126–112+11.6
  • WMIA117–115+3.4
  • W@TOR140–123+6.2
  • L@CLE120–129−9.6
Season scoring marginATL−1.7IND+2.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL−1.7

Scores 118.4, allows 120.1 over 81 games: −1.7 a game.

IND+2.6

Scores 122.9, allows 120.3 over 81 games: +2.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10ATL110.6IND123.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

ATL110.6scored, −4.0 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.8%+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%11.6%−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.5%24.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1510.194−1.2
Everything else+0.6

IND123.0scored, +8.4 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.7%54.8%+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)9.2%11.6%+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.5%24.1%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1680.194−0.8
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10ATL113.2IND118.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

ATL113.2allowed, −1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.4%54.8%−2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%11.6%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.4%24.1%+2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.194−0.3
Everything else+1.0

IND118.3allowed, +3.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.8%+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%11.6%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%24.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2400.194−1.3
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 99.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 99.2 and IND 100.2 → average 99.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.1)

Rotation points missingATL27.0IND0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL27.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Johnson15.031.15
Clint Capela12.028.610

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-14 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

IND0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-14 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysIND2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Apr 12 against MIN.

IND2days

Last played Apr 12 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@MIN106–10940-909-3017-25149105.0105.8102.0
Apr 10CHA114–11543-8218-4010-16167116.3117.398.0
Apr 9MIA111–11745-11310-4611-141517100.9104.591.9
Apr 6@DEN110–14237-8712-3724-291611104.8135.2105.0
Apr 4@DAL95–10934-8513-3814-2121991.3104.8104.0
Apr 3DET121–11349-9013-3810-15165116.3109.7103.5
Apr 1@CHI113–10141-8219-4012-18147117.7103.197.0
Mar 30MIL113–12242-9214-3515-18115114.1124.598.5
Mar 28BOS123–12251-10415-446-101113119.4119.692.8
Mar 27POR120–10644-8516-4116-20165120.0107.199.5

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@CLE120–12946-899-3219-22137116.5126.5102.5
Apr 9@TOR140–12354-9916-4516-231315135.9119.4103.0
Apr 7MIA117–11544-869-3220-2164121.9121.195.5
Apr 5OKC126–11246-8815-3519-21138123.5108.7102.5
Apr 3@BKN111–11546-10310-389-11919116.8118.696.0
Apr 1BKN133–11153-10313-3114-17914129.1108.8102.5
Mar 29LAL109–9043-8910-3113-1486109.090.999.5
Mar 27@CHI99–12534-8513-4218-231311103.1128.996.5
Mar 25@LAC133–11650-8617-2816-2287141.5122.194.5
Mar 24@LAL145–15059-10718-369-161110133.0137.6109.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
61%
pregame chance the forecast gave IND, the winner
IND was the forecast favorite
39 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual +42 for IND
830th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
15th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLIND
Final score115157
Field goals39–89 · 43.8%65–100 · 65.0%
Three-pointers12–36 · 33.3%19–36 · 52.8%
Free throws25–27 · 92.6%8–10 · 80.0%
Rebounds3248
Assists2541
Turnovers1514
Steals610
Blocks56

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Indiana Pacers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (IND)+3+42+39
Total points231272+41
ATL points114115+1
IND points117157+40

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
ATL34382122–115
IND49373932–157

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at MIN L 106–109
Apr 10 vs CHA L 114–115
Apr 9 vs MIA L 111–117
Apr 6 at DEN L 110–142
Apr 4 at DAL L 95–109

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at CLE L 120–129
Apr 9 at TOR W 140–123
Apr 7 vs MIA W 117–115
Apr 5 vs OKC W 126–112
Apr 3 at BKN L 111–115

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 12 2023-24 IND at ATL IND 126 – 108 ATL
Jan 5 2023-24 ATL at IND ATL 116 – 150 IND
Nov 21 2023-24 IND at ATL IND 157 – 152 ATL
Mar 25 2022-23 IND at ATL IND 130 – 143 ATL
Jan 13 2022-23 ATL at IND ATL 113 – 111 IND