2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers

Sunday, December 8, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 0–0@IND 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	107	113	+6
IND Indiana Pacers (home)	118	109	−9

Forecast: Indiana Pacers to win, 77% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	IND
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1342	1460
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+188
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−5.9	−4.2
Games played this season	23	24
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.3	110.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.0	115.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	68.2	0.0
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1342IND1460

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1342

Ended last season at 1321 → started this one at 1366
First 13 games: +15.0
Last 10 games: −38.7

L@BKN115–116−2.6
WDET123–121+3.9
L@MIL119–125−3.5
LORL84–95−7.1
LMIA94–98−4.7
LNYK98–99−2.2
LATL104–107−4.9
LPHI104–110−8.0
L@NYK101–125−4.0
LCLE102–116−5.6

IND1460

Ended last season at 1603 → started this one at 1577
First 14 games: −59.0
Last 10 games: −58.2

L@HOU113–130−8.7
L@MIL117–129−9.7
WWAS115–103+3.0
WNOP114–110+3.3
WPOR121–114+3.6
LDET106–130−33.7
L@MEM121–136−9.0
L@TOR111–122−11.8
L@BKN90–99−8.4
W@CHI132–123+13.2

Season scoring marginCHA−5.9IND−4.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−5.9

Scores 106.8, allows 112.7 over 23 games: −5.9 a game.

IND−4.2

Scores 114.2, allows 118.4 over 24 games: −4.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA108.3IND110.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

CHA108.3scored, −4.3 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.1%	54.2%	−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.5%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.8%	24.7%	+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.166	0.198	−0.9
Everything else			+1.0

IND110.6scored, −2.1 vs league

Factor	IND	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.4%	54.2%	+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.5%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.6%	24.7%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.198	+0.1
Everything else			−0.9

Defensive rating, last 10CHA116.0IND115.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

CHA116.0allowed, +3.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.7%	54.2%	−2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.5%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.1%	24.7%	−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.216	0.198	−0.5
Everything else			+0.6

IND115.6allowed, +2.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.5%	54.2%	−6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	12.5%	+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.2%	24.7%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.191	0.198	+0.2
Everything else			+0.9

Pace, last 10average 99.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 95.0 and IND 103.3 → average 99.2 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingCHA68.2IND0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA68.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
LaMelo Ball	34.6	34.6	5
Tre Mann	12.0	23.4	2
Grant Williams	12.0	35.0	3
Tidjane Salaün	7.8	21.9	9
Moussa Diabaté	1.8	25.6	9

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-08 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

IND0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-08 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCHA1 daysIND2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 7 against CLE.

IND2days

Last played Dec 6 against CHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 7	CLE	102–116	37-86	11-39	17-19	10	6	110.9	127.5	91.5
Dec 5	@NYK	101–125	40-89	15-39	6-10	10	10	109.8	134.4	92.5
Dec 3	PHI	104–110	34-77	13-34	23-28	15	15	111.8	118.3	93.0
Nov 30	ATL	104–107	35-94	18-48	16-19	14	15	105.1	110.3	98.0
Nov 29	NYK	98–99	36-89	15-47	11-15	13	14	106.5	107.6	92.0
Nov 27	MIA	94–98	37-98	17-51	3-8	13	14	100.0	105.4	93.5
Nov 25	ORL	84–95	31-75	7-32	15-19	26	7	90.3	102.2	93.0
Nov 23	@MIL	119–125	41-100	19-47	18-21	10	14	114.4	120.2	104.0
Nov 21	DET	123–121	44-93	20-44	15-21	15	11	116.0	115.2	95.5
Nov 19	@BKN	115–116	38-82	20-37	19-22	21	13	118.6	118.4	97.5

IND

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 6	@CHI	132–123	52-92	18-30	10-12	12	7	126.9	118.3	104.0
Dec 4	@BKN	90–99	32-75	8-33	18-22	16	5	92.8	103.1	96.5
Dec 3	@TOR	111–122	38-84	12-30	23-28	20	9	103.7	113.0	107.5
Dec 1	@MEM	121–136	43-90	14-42	21-26	15	6	112.0	124.8	108.5
Nov 29	DET	106–130	41-85	12-33	12-13	16	7	103.9	127.5	102.0
Nov 27	POR	121–114	46-94	13-32	16-20	12	19	131.5	121.3	93.0
Nov 25	NOP	114–110	43-91	17-47	11-16	13	6	109.6	106.8	103.5
Nov 24	WAS	115–103	41-86	12-27	21-27	11	11	115.0	103.0	100.0
Nov 22	@MIL	117–129	43-91	11-34	20-27	15	13	110.4	122.9	105.5
Nov 20	@HOU	113–130	44-83	5-22	20-25	23	3	100.0	115.0	113.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

23%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored IND

15 pts

margin miss

forecast +11, actual −4 for IND

26th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

336th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.47 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	IND
Final score	113	109
Field goals	40–78 · 51.3%	42–82 · 51.2%
Three-pointers	14–29 · 48.3%	12–36 · 33.3%
Free throws	19–26 · 73.1%	13–15 · 86.7%
Rebounds	45	29
Assists	24	23
Turnovers	24	17
Steals	11	9
Blocks	3	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Indiana Pacers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (IND)	+11	−4	−15
Total points	225	222	−3
CHA points	107	113	+6
IND points	118	109	−9

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
CHA	28	35	20	30	–	113
IND	24	38	20	27	–	109

Recent form before this game