The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 10

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks

Wednesday, April 10, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 4–2@ATL 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHA 27 percent, ATL 73 percent. CHA Hornets 27% proj. 105 · final 115 ATL Hawks · home 73% proj. 115 · final 114
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHA Charlotte Hornets 105 115 +10
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home) 115 114 −1

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputCHAATL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12921475
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +254
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −10.3−1.7
Games played this season 7979
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.5115.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 124.5113.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.015.0
Rest days 11
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1292ATL1475

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1292

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1388 → started this one at 1416
  2. First 69 games: −115.4
  3. Last 10 games: −8.8
  • L@ATL91–132−9.9
  • L@CLE92–115−3.7
  • WCLE118–111+15.2
  • LGSW97–115−6.1
  • LLAC118–130−5.4
  • LBOS104–118−1.8
  • LPOR86–89−6.8
  • WORL124–115+17.4
  • LOKC118–121−2.0
  • LDAL104–130−5.7

ATL1475

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1512 → started this one at 1509
  2. First 69 games: −51.7
  3. Last 10 games: +17.9
  • WCHA132–91+9.9
  • WBOS120–118+9.3
  • WPOR120–106+4.5
  • WBOS123–122+7.4
  • LMIL113–122−9.0
  • W@CHI113–101+15.1
  • WDET121–113+2.5
  • L@DAL95–109−5.4
  • L@DEN110–142−8.7
  • LMIA111–117−7.7
Season scoring marginCHA−10.3ATL−1.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−10.3

Scores 106.4, allows 116.8 over 79 games: −10.3 a game.

ATL−1.7

Scores 118.6, allows 120.3 over 79 games: −1.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA110.5ATL115.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

CHA110.5scored, −4.1 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.8%+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%11.6%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)15.7%24.1%−3.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1760.195−0.5
Everything else−0.5

ATL115.4scored, +0.8 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.5%54.8%+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%11.6%−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.8%24.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1450.195−1.4
Everything else+1.4
Defensive rating, last 10CHA124.5ATL113.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

CHA124.5allowed, +9.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.4%54.8%−7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%11.6%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.4%24.1%−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1540.195+1.2
Everything else−0.3

ATL113.2allowed, −1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.3%54.8%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%11.6%−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.5%24.1%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1750.195+0.6
Everything else+0.9
Pace, last 10average 96.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 94.8 and ATL 97.9 → average 96.4 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.2)

Rotation points missingCHA0.0ATL15.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-10 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

ATL15.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Johnson15.031.15

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-10 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCHA1 daysATL1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 9 against DAL.

ATL1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 9 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 9DAL104–13039-8910-3216-21118103.0130.0100.5
Apr 7OKC118–12145-8317-4011-14187121.6126.096.5
Apr 5ORL124–11543-7215-3023-23184129.2118.696.5
Apr 3POR86–8932-785-3117-229090.593.795.0
Apr 1BOS104–11841-9113-379-1165110.6126.993.5
Mar 31LAC118–13044-8823-527-1192125.5139.893.5
Mar 29GSW97–11534-8412-4617-241110101.0121.195.5
Mar 27CLE118–11144-7613-3317-22158126.9119.493.0
Mar 25@CLE92–11534-809-2815-1811498.9126.492.0
Mar 23@ATL91–13235-8411-3910-1413897.8143.592.5

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 9MIA111–11745-11310-4611-141517100.9104.591.9
Apr 6@DEN110–14237-8712-3724-291611104.8135.2105.0
Apr 4@DAL95–10934-8513-3814-2121991.3104.8104.0
Apr 3DET121–11349-9013-3810-15165116.3109.7103.5
Apr 1@CHI113–10141-8219-4012-18147117.7103.197.0
Mar 30MIL113–12242-9214-3515-18115114.1124.598.5
Mar 28BOS123–12251-10415-446-101113119.4119.692.8
Mar 27POR120–10644-8516-4116-20165120.0107.199.5
Mar 25BOS120–11846-8718-3610-171311126.3125.594.5
Mar 23CHA132–9150-9020-4212-1486143.597.892.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
27%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
the forecast favored ATL
11 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −1 for ATL
16th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
523rd
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.32 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHAATL
Final score115114
Field goals40–79 · 50.6%43–82 · 52.4%
Three-pointers14–36 · 38.9%18–40 · 45.0%
Free throws21–22 · 95.5%10–16 · 62.5%
Rebounds3338
Assists2535
Turnovers1316
Steals117
Blocks22

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)+10−1−11
Total points220229+9
CHA points105115+10
ATL points115114−1

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
CHA30252238–115
ATL35263122–114

Recent form before this game

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Apr 9 vs DAL L 104–130
Apr 7 vs OKC L 118–121
Apr 5 vs ORL W 124–115
Apr 3 vs POR L 86–89
Apr 1 vs BOS L 104–118

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Apr 9 vs MIA L 111–117
Apr 6 at DEN L 110–142
Apr 4 at DAL L 95–109
Apr 3 vs DET W 121–113
Apr 1 at CHI W 113–101

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 23 2023-24 CHA at ATL CHA 91 – 132 ATL
Feb 14 2023-24 ATL at CHA ATL 99 – 122 CHA
Oct 25 2023-24 ATL at CHA ATL 110 – 116 CHA
Feb 13 2022-23 ATL at CHA ATL 138 – 144 CHA
Jan 21 2022-23 CHA at ATL CHA 122 – 118 ATL