2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers

Monday, November 27, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

LAL 0–1@PHI 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	111	94	−17
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home)	119	138	+19

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	PHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1539	1619
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+151
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.7	+6.0
Games played this season	17	16
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.4	118.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	110.0	115.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	13.0	11.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1539PHI1619

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1539

Ended last season at 1584 → started this one at 1563
First 7 games: −20.0
Last 10 games: −4.1

L@HOU94–128−30.2
W@PHX122–119+7.4
WPOR116–110+2.9
WMEM134–107+12.3
LSAC110–125−18.7
W@POR107–95+7.9
WHOU105–104+2.1
WUTA131–99+10.4
LDAL101–104−8.0
W@CLE121–115+9.8

PHI1619

Ended last season at 1625 → started this one at 1593
First 6 games: +28.0
Last 10 games: −2.3

WBOS106–103+4.7
W@DET114–106+3.3
WIND137–126+3.9
LIND126–132−15.3
LBOS107–117−11.3
W@ATL126–116+10.2
W@BKN121–99+14.9
LCLE119–122−9.1
L@MIN99–112−11.1
W@OKC127–123+7.5

Season scoring marginLAL+0.7PHI+6.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+0.7

Scores 112.9, allows 112.2 over 17 games: +0.7 a game.

85% this season (+0.7) + 15% last season (+0.9) = +0.7

PHI+6.0

Scores 119.4, allows 112.9 over 16 games: +6.6 a game.

80% this season (+6.6) + 20% last season (+3.6) = +6.0

Offensive rating, last 10LAL113.4PHI118.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.3).

LAL113.4scored, +0.0 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.5%	54.1%	+3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.2%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.9%	24.7%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.228	0.203	+0.7
Everything else			−1.5

PHI118.5scored, +5.1 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.6%	54.1%	−3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	12.2%	+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.6%	24.7%	+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.283	0.203	+2.3
Everything else			+1.7

Defensive rating, last 10LAL110.0PHI115.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.3).

LAL110.0allowed, −3.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.4%	54.1%	+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.2%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.8%	24.7%	+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.135	0.203	+2.0
Everything else			−0.4

PHI115.7allowed, +2.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.2%	54.1%	−0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.2%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.0%	24.7%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.202	0.203	+0.1
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 99.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 100.7 and PHI 98.9 → average 99.8 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingLAL13.0PHI11.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL13.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Rui Hachimura	13.0	26.1	9

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-27 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

PHI11.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kelly Oubre Jr.	11.0	26.5	2

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-27 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestLAL2 daysPHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL2days

Last played Nov 25 against CLE.

PHI2days

Last played Nov 25 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 25	@CLE	121–115	47-90	9-27	18-21	18	9	114.2	107.5	106.5
Nov 22	DAL	101–104	39-84	11-29	12-19	11	9	104.1	109.5	96.0
Nov 21	UTA	131–99	49-86	11-29	22-27	13	9	126.0	95.2	104.0
Nov 19	HOU	105–104	39-83	6-29	21-29	17	10	107.1	106.1	98.0
Nov 17	@POR	107–95	40-81	12-29	15-22	18	11	110.3	99.0	96.5
Nov 15	SAC	110–125	42-83	11-29	15-19	23	7	100.9	114.7	109.0
Nov 14	MEM	134–107	47-81	22-35	18-24	18	10	138.1	109.2	97.5
Nov 12	POR	116–110	41-84	4-19	30-37	9	7	114.9	108.9	101.0
Nov 10	@PHX	122–119	42-84	12-27	26-34	11	9	123.2	120.2	99.0
Nov 8	@HOU	94–128	36-85	7-25	15-24	9	5	94.9	129.3	99.0

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 25	@OKC	127–123	38-83	14-41	37-45	12	17	129.6	126.8	97.5
Nov 22	@MIN	99–112	34-87	7-32	24-30	14	16	102.1	115.5	97.0
Nov 21	CLE	119–122	40-96	11-35	28-34	14	14	110.2	111.9	98.3
Nov 19	@BKN	121–99	44-94	16-35	17-18	4	10	127.4	103.1	95.5
Nov 17	@ATL	126–116	43-88	13-30	27-28	15	13	128.6	117.2	98.5
Nov 15	BOS	107–117	39-85	11-30	18-22	9	10	115.1	125.8	93.0
Nov 14	IND	126–132	43-86	6-22	34-35	16	5	114.5	122.2	109.0
Nov 12	IND	137–126	53-105	14-33	17-20	11	23	137.0	126.0	100.0
Nov 10	@DET	114–106	35-83	9-28	35-41	8	11	116.3	108.2	98.0
Nov 8	BOS	106–103	42-95	9-34	13-15	12	12	103.9	100.0	102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

70%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner

PHI was the forecast favorite

36 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual +44 for PHI

1115th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

21st

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.36 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	PHI
Final score	94	138
Field goals	39–83 · 47.0%	47–93 · 50.5%
Three-pointers	7–28 · 25.0%	22–46 · 47.8%
Free throws	9–13 · 69.2%	22–26 · 84.6%
Rebounds	32	48
Assists	23	33
Turnovers	17	5
Steals	3	11
Blocks	4	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)	+8	+44	+36
Total points	230	232	+2
LAL points	111	94	−17
PHI points	119	138	+19

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
LAL	19	34	27	14	–	94
PHI	32	36	30	40	–	138

Recent form before this game