The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 7

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers

Thursday, December 7, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

NOP 1–0@LAL 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NOP 39 percent, LAL 61 percent. NOP Pelicans 39% proj. 112 · final 89 LAL Lakers · home 61% proj. 115 · final 133
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans 112 89 −23
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 115 133 +18

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNOPLAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15441533
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +59
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +1.2−0.8
Games played this season 2222
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 119.7110.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.4108.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 32
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1544LAL1533

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1544

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1527
  2. First 12 games: −24.4
  3. Last 10 games: +41.8
  • LMIN120–121−4.2
  • WSAC129–93+23.1
  • WSAC117–112+5.4
  • W@LAC116–106+12.6
  • L@UTA100–105−9.2
  • L@UTA112–114−6.0
  • WPHI124–114+12.0
  • WSAS121–106+3.2
  • L@CHI118–124−8.3
  • W@SAC127–117+13.2

LAL1533

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1584 → started this one at 1563
  2. First 12 games: −46.3
  3. Last 10 games: +16.2
  • W@POR107–95+7.9
  • WHOU105–104+2.1
  • WUTA131–99+10.4
  • LDAL101–104−8.0
  • W@CLE121–115+9.8
  • L@PHI94–138−15.3
  • W@DET133–107+9.6
  • L@OKC110–133−11.1
  • WHOU107–97+6.1
  • WPHX106–103+4.7
Season scoring marginNOP+1.2LAL−0.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP+1.2

Scores 114.6, allows 113.4 over 22 games: +1.2 a game.

LAL−0.8

Scores 112.2, allows 113.0 over 22 games: −0.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NOP119.7LAL110.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.8).

NOP119.7scored, +6.0 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.1%+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.0%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.9%24.7%+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2540.203+1.4
Everything else−0.8

LAL110.4scored, −3.3 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.1%−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.0%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.6%24.7%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2250.203+0.6
Everything else−1.2
Defensive rating, last 10NOP112.4LAL108.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.8).

NOP112.4allowed, −1.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.1%−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%12.0%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.4%24.7%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2190.203−0.5
Everything else−1.0

LAL108.9allowed, −4.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.4%54.1%+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.0%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%24.7%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1660.203+1.1
Everything else+1.1
Pace, last 10average 99.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 99.0 and LAL 100.8 → average 99.8 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingNOP0.0LAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-12-07 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-12-07 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestNOP3 daysLAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP3days

Last played Dec 4 against SAC.

LAL2days

Last played Dec 5 against PHX.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 4@SAC127–11747-8714-3119-231213127.0119.499.0
Dec 2@CHI118–12441-828-2528-351213122.9127.896.5
Dec 1SAS121–10642-8510-3127-291110121.0106.0100.0
Nov 29PHI124–11442-7810-3030-342013122.8116.399.5
Nov 27@UTA112–11444-887-2217-25811119.1118.895.0
Nov 25@UTA100–10539-9311-3611-181313100.0105.0100.0
Nov 24@LAC116–10643-8810-2420-271512116.0105.0100.5
Nov 22SAC117–11241-877-3028-371013118.2112.099.5
Nov 20SAC129–9350-9212-2817-211010129.093.0100.0
Nov 18MIN120–12144-8612-2920-231713121.2121.099.5

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 5PHX106–10338-1029-3021-25921109.3105.197.5
Dec 2HOU107–9740-898-2719-2799104.995.1102.0
Nov 30@OKC110–13336-8111-3327-32137104.8127.9104.5
Nov 29@DET133–10745-8812-3431-38128125.5100.9106.0
Nov 27@PHI94–13839-837-289-1317697.9142.396.5
Nov 25@CLE121–11547-909-2718-21189114.2107.5106.5
Nov 22DAL101–10439-8411-2912-19119104.1109.596.0
Nov 21UTA131–9949-8611-2922-27139126.095.2104.0
Nov 19HOU105–10439-836-2921-291710107.1106.198.0
Nov 17@POR107–9540-8112-2915-221811110.399.096.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
61%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner
LAL was the forecast favorite
41 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual +44 for LAL
830th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
8th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNOPLAL
Final score89133
Field goals34–95 · 35.8%47–86 · 54.7%
Three-pointers7–31 · 22.6%17–35 · 48.6%
Free throws14–20 · 70.0%22–29 · 75.9%
Rebounds4259
Assists2231
Turnovers1214
Steals76
Blocks54

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Los Angeles Lakers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+3+44+41
Total points227222−5
NOP points11289−23
LAL points115133+18

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
NOP30241718–89
LAL29384323–133

Recent form before this game

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Dec 4 at SAC W 127–117
Dec 2 at CHI L 118–124
Dec 1 vs SAS W 121–106
Nov 29 vs PHI W 124–114
Nov 27 at UTA L 112–114

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Dec 5 vs PHX W 106–103
Dec 2 vs HOU W 107–97
Nov 30 at OKC L 110–133
Nov 29 at DET W 133–107
Nov 27 at PHI L 94–138

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 14 2022-23 LAL at NOP LAL 123 – 108 NOP
Feb 15 2022-23 NOP at LAL NOP 102 – 120 LAL
Feb 4 2022-23 LAL at NOP LAL 126 – 131 NOP
Nov 2 2022-23 NOP at LAL NOP 117 – 120 LAL
Apr 1 2021-22 NOP at LAL NOP 114 – 111 LAL