The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 16

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets

Saturday, December 16, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

PHI 1–1@CHA 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHI 63 percent, CHA 37 percent. PHI 76ers 63% proj. 120 · final 135 CHA Hornets · home 37% proj. 111 · final 82
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers 120 135 +15
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) 111 82 −29

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 63% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPHICHA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16381354
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −213
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +10.2−7.7
Games played this season 2423
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 123.8113.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 110.7120.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.041.7
Rest days 11
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1638CHA1354

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1638

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1625 → started this one at 1593
  2. First 14 games: +29.3
  3. Last 10 games: +14.7
  • L@MIN99–112−11.1
  • W@OKC127–123+7.5
  • WLAL138–94+15.3
  • L@NOP114–124−12.0
  • L@BOS119–125−4.9
  • W@WAS131–126+3.3
  • WATL125–114+4.9
  • WWAS146–101+5.9
  • W@DET129–111+3.5
  • WDET124–92+2.3

CHA1354

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1388 → started this one at 1416
  2. First 13 games: −52.0
  3. Last 10 games: −9.7
  • WWAS117–114+4.7
  • L@ORL117–130−4.1
  • L@NYK91–115−5.0
  • W@BKN129–128+7.8
  • LMIN117–123−4.0
  • L@CHI100–111−5.5
  • WTOR119–116+7.0
  • LMIA114–116−3.0
  • L@MIA104–115−3.2
  • LNOP107–112−4.4
Season scoring marginPHI+10.2CHA−7.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI+10.2

Scores 122.4, allows 112.2 over 24 games: +10.2 a game.

CHA−7.7

Scores 112.7, allows 120.4 over 23 games: −7.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHI123.8CHA113.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.2).

PHI123.8scored, +9.5 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.7%54.3%+2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%11.9%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.1%24.9%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2840.205+2.3
Everything else+1.9

CHA113.5scored, −0.7 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.4%54.3%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%11.9%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.5%24.9%−2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1630.205−1.2
Everything else+0.5
Defensive rating, last 10PHI110.7CHA120.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.2).

PHI110.7allowed, −3.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.3%+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%11.9%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.7%24.9%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.205−0.7
Everything else+0.2

CHA120.5allowed, +6.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.0%54.3%−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%11.9%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)33.5%24.9%−3.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2390.205−1.0
Everything else−0.7
Pace, last 10average 99.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 101.3 and CHA 98.2 → average 99.8 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPHI0.0CHA41.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-12-16 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

CHA41.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
LaMelo Ball20.527.22
P.J. Washington10.926.08
Mark Williams10.327.16

Source: official injury report, 2023-12-16 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestPHI1 daysCHA1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 15 against DET.

CHA1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 15 against NOP.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 15DET124–9241-9814-3728-31119120.488.5103.5
Dec 13@DET129–11145-8711-3028-34108125.2107.8103.0
Dec 11WAS146–10152-9520-4622-25134133.991.8109.5
Dec 8ATL125–11442-8711-3030-371012126.3114.099.5
Dec 6@WAS131–12647-928-2729-341111126.0120.0104.5
Dec 1@BOS119–12543-9416-3517-231615115.5121.4103.0
Nov 29@NOP114–12442-8114-3416-18218116.3122.899.5
Nov 27LAL138–9447-9322-4622-26515142.397.996.5
Nov 25@OKC127–12338-8314-4137-451217129.6126.897.5
Nov 22@MIN99–11234-877-3224-301416102.1115.597.0

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 15NOP107–11241-929-3116-2184108.1112.099.5
Dec 13@MIA104–11541-7712-3110-11213104.0117.399.0
Dec 11MIA114–11640-8417-4117-22106120.0124.794.0
Dec 8TOR119–11644-7913-2518-20157121.4117.298.5
Dec 6@CHI100–11139-9010-3712-121612102.0112.198.5
Dec 2MIN117–12344-9112-2517-19810121.9129.595.5
Nov 30@BKN129–12846-9121-3616-16913134.4136.295.0
Nov 28@NYK91–11537-8913-314-7171395.8119.895.5
Nov 26@ORL117–13044-8313-3016-25185110.4123.8105.5
Nov 22WAS117–11443-9116-3715-211211117.0112.9100.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
63%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner
PHI was the forecast favorite
44 pts
margin miss
forecast −9, actual −53 for CHA
960th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
4th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.46 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHICHA
Final score13582
Field goals53–88 · 60.2%33–91 · 36.3%
Three-pointers14–31 · 45.2%7–35 · 20.0%
Free throws15–17 · 88.2%9–11 · 81.8%
Rebounds4536
Assists3015
Turnovers1011
Steals103
Blocks64

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)−9−53−44
Total points231217−14
PHI points120135+15
CHA points11182−29

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
PHI33402735–135
CHA17271523–82

Recent form before this game

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Dec 15 vs DET W 124–92
Dec 13 at DET W 129–111
Dec 11 vs WAS W 146–101
Dec 8 vs ATL W 125–114
Dec 6 at WAS W 131–126

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Dec 15 vs NOP L 107–112
Dec 13 at MIA L 104–115
Dec 11 vs MIA L 114–116
Dec 8 vs TOR W 119–116
Dec 6 at CHI L 100–111

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 17 2022-23 PHI at CHA PHI 121 – 82 CHA
Dec 11 2022-23 CHA at PHI CHA 113 – 131 PHI
Nov 23 2022-23 PHI at CHA PHI 101 – 107 CHA
Apr 2 2021-22 CHA at PHI CHA 114 – 144 PHI
Jan 12 2021-22 CHA at PHI CHA 109 – 98 PHI