2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers

Monday, November 27, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 1–1@IND 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	114	114	±0
IND Indiana Pacers (home)	122	110	−12

Forecast: Indiana Pacers to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	IND
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1336	1477
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+211
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−7.5	+1.7
Games played this season	16	15
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	105.1	128.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.5	121.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	1	3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1336IND1477

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1336

Ended last season at 1315 → started this one at 1362
First 6 games: +21.6
Last 10 games: −46.6

LMEM100–112−10.8
L@SAC118–121−2.5
L@LAL110–116−2.9
L@UTA99–115−8.6
LCLE95–109−8.8
LLAL95–107−7.9
LOKC91–134−14.3
L@PHX107–120−3.5
WUTA121–105+14.6
L@MIL102–108−1.9

IND1477

Ended last season at 1394 → started this one at 1421
First 5 games: +23.7
Last 10 games: +32.9

LCHA124–125−6.1
WSAS152–111+16.1
WUTA134–118+8.9
WMIL126–124+4.8
L@PHI126–137−3.9
W@PHI132–126+15.3
LORL116–128−14.5
W@ATL157–152+10.6
LTOR131–132−4.6
WDET136–113+6.3

Season scoring marginPOR−7.5IND+1.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−7.5

Scores 104.2, allows 112.7 over 16 games: −8.4 a game.

80% this season (−8.4) + 20% last season (−4.0) = −7.5

IND+1.7

Scores 128.8, allows 125.5 over 15 games: +3.3 a game.

75% this season (+3.3) + 25% last season (−3.2) = +1.7

Offensive rating, last 10POR105.1IND128.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.3).

POR105.1scored, −8.3 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.3%	54.1%	−5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.6%	12.2%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.4%	24.7%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.155	0.203	−1.4
Everything else			+0.6

IND128.1scored, +14.7 vs league

Factor	IND	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.6%	54.1%	+10.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	12.2%	+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	24.7%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.198	0.203	−0.1
Everything else			+2.6

Defensive rating, last 10POR116.5IND121.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.3).

POR116.5allowed, +3.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.9%	54.1%	−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.5%	12.2%	+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.2%	24.7%	−2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.238	0.203	−1.0
Everything else			+1.7

IND121.1allowed, +7.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.9%	54.1%	−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.2%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.2%	24.7%	−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.265	0.203	−1.8
Everything else			−1.6

Pace, last 10average 101.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 97.7 and IND 104.4 → average 101.1 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingPOR0.0IND0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-27 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

IND0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-27 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPOR1 daysIND3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 26 against MIL.

IND3days

Last played Nov 24 against DET.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 26	@MIL	102–108	37-91	13-32	15-20	17	11	99.0	105.9	102.5
Nov 22	UTA	121–105	47-92	17-39	10-15	13	14	122.2	107.1	98.5
Nov 21	@PHX	107–120	38-87	14-31	17-20	13	12	116.3	131.9	91.5
Nov 19	OKC	91–134	34-85	9-34	14-21	17	13	95.8	141.1	95.0
Nov 17	LAL	95–107	36-89	10-37	13-18	18	19	99.0	110.3	96.5
Nov 15	CLE	95–109	34-91	13-38	14-16	12	8	101.1	114.7	94.5
Nov 14	@UTA	99–115	37-88	11-35	14-20	17	13	98.0	113.9	101.0
Nov 12	@LAL	110–116	45-90	13-37	7-9	15	5	108.9	114.9	101.0
Nov 8	@SAC	118–121	44-87	8-22	22-29	18	7	110.3	111.0	97.8
Nov 5	MEM	100–112	37-95	14-45	12-15	14	16	100.0	114.3	99.0

IND

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 24	DET	136–113	49-102	16-38	22-24	8	15	137.4	114.1	99.0
Nov 22	TOR	131–132	50-91	18-39	13-16	14	5	123.6	123.4	106.5
Nov 21	@ATL	157–152	57-94	22-45	21-28	13	7	144.0	140.7	108.5
Nov 19	ORL	116–128	42-95	8-31	24-31	16	11	107.4	117.4	108.5
Nov 14	@PHI	132–126	48-93	13-37	23-33	11	10	122.2	114.5	109.0
Nov 12	@PHI	126–137	47-90	16-39	16-19	10	8	126.0	137.0	100.0
Nov 9	MIL	126–124	44-92	20-48	18-20	11	9	124.8	121.6	101.5
Nov 8	UTA	134–118	52-101	13-41	17-20	11	14	126.4	111.3	106.0
Nov 6	SAS	152–111	55-95	20-38	22-23	14	9	143.4	103.7	106.5
Nov 4	CHA	124–125	45-93	22-45	12-16	14	11	125.3	127.6	98.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

30%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored IND

12 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −4 for IND

30th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

479th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	IND
Final score	114	110
Field goals	40–85 · 47.1%	42–88 · 47.7%
Three-pointers	9–18 · 50.0%	8–33 · 24.2%
Free throws	25–31 · 80.6%	18–24 · 75.0%
Rebounds	38	42
Assists	20	26
Turnovers	16	20
Steals	6	10
Blocks	4	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Indiana Pacers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (IND)	+8	−4	−12
Total points	236	224	−12
POR points	114	114	±0
IND points	122	110	−12

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
POR	30	35	18	31	–	114
IND	34	26	23	27	–	110

Recent form before this game