2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings

Friday, April 3, 2026 · tip-off 10:00 PM ET

NOP 6–1@SAC 6–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans	115	113	−2
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	113	117	+4

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	NOP	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1411	1329
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−13
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−4.5	−10.2
Games played this season	77	77
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.5	114.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	117.3	123.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	15.9	23.3
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1411SAC1329

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1411

Ended last season at 1302 → started this one at 1352
First 67 games: +70.2
Last 10 games: −10.1

L@HOU105–107−1.8
WDAL129–111+9.9
WLAC124–109+16.5
WLAC105–99+8.5
LCLE106–111−4.8
L@NYK116–121−1.9
L@DET108–129−4.9
L@TOR106–119−6.8
LHOU102–134−19.0
L@POR106–118−5.8

SAC1329

Ended last season at 1499 → started this one at 1499
First 67 games: −182.8
Last 10 games: +12.9

W@LAC118–109+23.5
WUTA116–111+4.7
LSAS104–132−5.2
LPHI118–139−12.9
WBKN126–122+4.2
L@CHA90–134−4.4
L@ORL117–121−1.8
L@ATL113–123−2.4
L@BKN99–116−13.2
W@TOR123–115+20.4

Season scoring marginNOP−4.5SAC−10.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−4.5

Scores 115.0, allows 119.5 over 77 games: −4.5 a game.

SAC−10.2

Scores 110.9, allows 121.1 over 77 games: −10.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NOP112.5SAC114.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

NOP112.5scored, −2.2 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.2%	54.6%	−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.2%	+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.7%	26.0%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			−0.0

SAC114.1scored, −0.6 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	54.6%	+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.2%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.5%	26.0%	+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.186	0.210	−0.7
Everything else			−2.0

Defensive rating, last 10NOP117.3SAC123.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

NOP117.3allowed, +2.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.6%	−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.1%	12.2%	−1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.0%	26.0%	−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.167	0.210	+1.2
Everything else			+0.9

SAC123.8allowed, +9.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.7%	54.6%	−7.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.2%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.0%	26.0%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.210	−0.1
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 98.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 98.7 and SAC 98.7 → average 98.7 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingNOP15.9SAC23.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP15.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Dejounte Murray	15.9	29.2	7

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-03 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

SAC23.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Malik Monk	14.0	27.4	6
Russell Westbrook	9.3	29.3	3

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-03 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestNOP1 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 2 against POR.

SAC2days

Last played Apr 1 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 2	@POR	106–118	38-84	9-23	21-26	19	12	107.1	116.8	100.0
Mar 29	HOU	102–134	37-86	9-29	19-28	10	8	102.0	135.4	99.5
Mar 27	@TOR	106–119	39-93	7-28	21-25	13	15	106.0	119.0	100.0
Mar 26	@DET	108–129	44-95	9-25	11-24	15	16	104.9	124.0	103.5
Mar 24	@NYK	116–121	45-88	15-34	11-13	7	6	126.1	130.1	92.5
Mar 21	CLE	106–111	39-90	12-40	16-20	9	10	111.6	116.8	95.0
Mar 19	LAC	105–99	37-78	13-34	18-22	16	8	107.1	102.1	97.5
Mar 18	LAC	124–109	44-83	16-37	20-21	18	13	130.5	113.5	95.5
Mar 16	DAL	129–111	48-95	11-35	22-34	14	12	118.3	101.8	109.0
Mar 13	@HOU	105–107	37-84	13-32	18-26	13	15	111.7	113.8	94.0

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 1	@TOR	123–115	42-92	12-33	27-29	13	19	126.8	117.3	97.5
Mar 29	@BKN	99–116	36-84	10-32	17-25	15	11	103.1	122.1	95.5
Mar 28	@ATL	113–123	45-93	12-32	11-13	15	14	116.5	126.8	97.0
Mar 26	@ORL	117–121	45-88	14-33	13-16	9	9	123.2	128.7	94.5
Mar 24	@CHA	90–134	37-91	9-28	7-11	12	8	90.9	138.1	98.0
Mar 22	BKN	126–122	43-82	14-27	26-34	16	13	134.0	127.1	95.0
Mar 19	PHI	118–139	43-89	12-32	20-29	13	14	113.5	132.4	104.5
Mar 17	SAS	104–132	41-93	14-36	8-13	8	6	104.0	132.0	100.0
Mar 15	UTA	116–111	41-85	11-36	23-28	18	12	112.6	106.7	103.5
Mar 14	@LAC	118–109	48-82	12-27	10-16	19	9	116.8	106.9	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

44%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner

the forecast favored NOP

6 pts

margin miss

forecast −2, actual +4 for SAC

292nd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

832nd

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.81 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	NOP	SAC
Final score	113	117
Field goals	40–84 · 47.6%	46–90 · 51.1%
Three-pointers	14–34 · 41.2%	10–33 · 30.3%
Free throws	19–21 · 90.5%	15–20 · 75.0%
Rebounds	36	46
Assists	24	29
Turnovers	13	14
Steals	12	7
Blocks	3	6

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	−2	+4	+6
Total points	228	230	+2
NOP points	115	113	−2
SAC points	113	117	+4

Recent form before this game