2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat

Saturday, March 8, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

CHI 2–4@MIA 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHI Chicago Bulls	109	114	+5
MIA Miami Heat (home)	118	109	−9

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHI	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1397	1461
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+133
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−4.2	−0.7
Games played this season	63	61
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.8	115.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	117.7	113.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	42.6	6.7
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHI1397MIA1461

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHI1397

Ended last season at 1475 → started this one at 1481
First 53 games: −73.0
Last 10 games: −10.8

LDET92–132−25.4
LDET110–128−11.7
L@NYK111–113−1.1
LPHX117–121−5.7
W@PHI142–110+33.8
LLAC117–122−5.8
WTOR125–115+7.8
L@IND112–127−4.4
LCLE117–139−4.8
W@ORL125–123+6.5

MIA1461

Ended last season at 1543 → started this one at 1532
First 51 games: −81.0
Last 10 games: +9.8

L@DAL113–118−3.4
W@TOR120–111+10.3
L@MIL113–120−5.1
L@ATL86–98−9.0
WATL131–109+14.0
WIND125–120+8.6
LNYK112–116−4.9
WWAS106–90+4.0
L@CLE107–112−1.3
LMIN104–106−3.4

Season scoring marginCHI−4.2MIA−0.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHI−4.2

Scores 116.6, allows 120.8 over 63 games: −4.2 a game.

MIA−0.7

Scores 110.0, allows 110.7 over 61 games: −0.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHI111.8MIA115.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.4).

CHI111.8scored, −1.6 vs league

Factor	CHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.2%	−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.1%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.4%	25.1%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.192	0.194	−0.1
Everything else			−0.6

MIA115.1scored, +1.7 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.1%	54.2%	+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.1%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.1%	25.1%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.194	+0.0
Everything else			−1.0

Defensive rating, last 10CHI117.7MIA113.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.4).

CHI117.7allowed, +4.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.2%	−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.1%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.4%	25.1%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.194	−0.8
Everything else			−1.7

MIA113.4allowed, +0.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.7%	54.2%	−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.1%	−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.8%	25.1%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.150	0.194	+1.3
Everything else			+1.0

Pace, last 10average 98.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHI 102.6 and MIA 95.3 → average 98.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingCHI42.6MIA6.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHI42.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Nikola Vučević	16.5	31.4	4
Ayo Dosunmu	11.8	26.5	4
Lonzo Ball	10.4	26.0	5
Patrick Williams	4.0	18.9	2

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-08 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

MIA6.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Nikola Jović	6.7	25.0	3

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-08 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCHI2 daysMIA1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHI2days

Last played Mar 6 against ORL.

MIA1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 7 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 6	@ORL	125–123	43-86	15-40	24-30	18	13	122.5	119.4	102.5
Mar 4	CLE	117–139	47-106	11-44	12-17	7	9	108.3	128.7	108.0
Mar 2	@IND	112–127	44-88	10-33	14-18	12	12	113.1	129.6	98.5
Feb 28	TOR	125–115	45-101	13-49	22-25	11	10	113.6	103.6	100.1
Feb 26	LAC	117–122	46-94	19-42	6-11	16	15	120.6	124.5	97.5
Feb 24	@PHI	142–110	45-89	18-40	34-36	13	10	132.7	100.9	108.0
Feb 22	PHX	117–121	41-98	18-53	17-17	9	11	113.6	117.5	103.0
Feb 20	@NYK	111–113	41-103	19-48	10-12	15	11	100.9	102.7	99.6
Feb 12	DET	110–128	37-86	9-41	27-30	16	10	104.8	121.9	105.0
Feb 11	DET	92–132	35-100	10-47	12-19	14	14	87.6	128.2	104.0

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 7	MIN	104–106	41-89	14-34	8-11	9	7	109.5	112.8	94.5
Mar 5	@CLE	107–112	36-83	13-36	22-25	13	9	108.1	113.1	99.0
Mar 3	WAS	106–90	39-82	13-37	15-18	11	5	108.2	91.8	98.0
Mar 2	NYK	112–116	45-84	11-35	11-16	12	3	112.0	116.0	90.6
Feb 28	IND	125–120	48-84	17-32	12-13	14	12	134.4	129.0	93.0
Feb 26	ATL	131–109	45-76	23-42	18-22	14	8	139.4	116.0	94.0
Feb 24	@ATL	86–98	27-84	7-40	25-27	17	13	88.7	102.1	96.5
Feb 23	@MIL	113–120	41-88	9-31	22-26	9	10	115.3	123.7	97.5
Feb 21	@TOR	120–111	46-90	13-36	15-18	12	8	117.6	108.8	92.4
Feb 13	@DAL	113–118	43-91	10-36	17-26	13	14	117.7	120.4	97.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

27%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHI, the winner

the forecast favored MIA

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −5 for MIA

44th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

381st

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.32 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHI	MIA
Final score	114	109
Field goals	40–88 · 45.5%	41–97 · 42.3%
Three-pointers	11–42 · 26.2%	13–43 · 30.2%
Free throws	23–26 · 88.5%	14–19 · 73.7%
Rebounds	51	44
Assists	27	25
Turnovers	10	9
Steals	6	7
Blocks	4	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+9	−5	−14
Total points	227	223	−4
CHI points	109	114	+5
MIA points	118	109	−9

Recent form before this game

Chicago Bulls

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 6	at ORL	W 125–123
Mar 4	vs CLE	L 117–139
Mar 2	at IND	L 112–127
Feb 28	vs TOR	W 125–115
Feb 26	vs LAC	L 117–122

Miami Heat

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 7	vs MIN	L 104–106
Mar 5	at CLE	L 107–112
Mar 3	vs WAS	W 106–90
Mar 2	vs NYK	L 112–116
Feb 28	vs IND	W 125–120

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Feb 4 2024-25	MIA at CHI	MIA 124 – 133 CHI
Dec 16 2023-24	CHI at MIA	CHI 116 – 118 MIA
Dec 14 2023-24	CHI at MIA	CHI 124 – 116 MIA
Nov 20 2023-24	MIA at CHI	MIA 118 – 100 CHI
Nov 18 2023-24	MIA at CHI	MIA 97 – 102 CHI