2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers
Monday, February 24, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
CHI 1–4@PHI 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Chicago Bulls | 112 | 142 | +30 |
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) | 117 | 110 | −7 |
Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | CHI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1364 | 1414 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +120 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −4.6 | −4.1 |
| Games played this season | 57 | 56 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 108.8 | 113.3 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 120.2 | 120.1 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 99.9 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 21.2 | 36.8 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingCHI1364PHI1414
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
CHI1364
- Ended last season at 1475 → started this one at 1481
- First 47 games: −66.4
- Last 10 games: −50.4
- L@BOS100–122−4.2
- W@TOR122–106+18.5
- L@DET119–127−5.3
- WMIA133–124+9.1
- L@MIN108–127−5.4
- LGSW111–132−19.2
- LDET92–132−25.4
- LDET110–128−11.7
- L@NYK111–113−1.1
- LPHX117–121−5.7
PHI1414
- Ended last season at 1532 → started this one at 1524
- First 46 games: −51.5
- Last 10 games: −58.5
- LDEN134–137−4.5
- LBOS110–118−5.7
- WDAL118–116+4.8
- LMIA101–108−10.7
- L@DET112–125−8.3
- L@MIL127–135−5.4
- LTOR103–106−8.2
- L@BKN96–100−6.2
- LBOS104–124−7.2
- LBKN103–105−7.1
Season scoring marginCHI−4.6PHI−4.1
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
CHI−4.6
Scores 115.9, allows 120.6 over 57 games: −4.6 a game.
PHI−4.1
Scores 108.9, allows 113.0 over 56 games: −4.1 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10CHI108.8PHI113.3
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).
CHI108.8scored, −4.4 vs league
| Factor | CHI | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.8% | 54.2% | −2.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.7% | 12.2% | +0.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 20.8% | 25.0% | −1.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.188 | 0.194 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | −0.9 |
PHI113.3scored, +0.1 vs league
| Factor | PHI | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.7% | 54.2% | −0.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.6% | 12.2% | +2.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.6% | 25.0% | −1.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.194 | 0.194 | +0.0 | |
| Everything else | −0.2 |
Defensive rating, last 10CHI120.2PHI120.1
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).
CHI120.2allowed, +7.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.9% | 54.2% | −2.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.0% | 12.2% | −3.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.3% | 25.0% | +0.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.205 | 0.194 | −0.3 | |
| Everything else | −1.4 |
PHI120.1allowed, +6.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.6% | 54.2% | −5.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.3% | 12.2% | +1.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 30.7% | 25.0% | −2.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.196 | 0.194 | −0.1 | |
| Everything else | −0.7 |
Pace, last 10average 99.9
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
CHI 102.0 and PHI 97.7 → average 99.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)
Rotation points missingCHI21.2PHI36.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
CHI21.2pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayo Dosunmu | 12.2 | 30.8 | 9 |
| Patrick Williams | 9.0 | 24.0 | 8 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-02-24 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
PHI36.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | 22.5 | 32.0 | 6 |
| Justin Edwards | 10.2 | 29.7 | 8 |
| Eric Gordon | 4.0 | 18.6 | 4 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-02-24 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
RestCHI2 daysPHI2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
CHI2days
Last played Feb 22 against PHX.
PHI2days
Last played Feb 22 against BKN.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
CHI
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22 | PHX | 117–121 | 41-98 | 18-53 | 17-17 | 9 | 11 | 113.6 | 117.5 | 103.0 |
| Feb 20 | @NYK | 111–113 | 41-103 | 19-48 | 10-12 | 15 | 11 | 100.9 | 102.7 | 99.6 |
| Feb 12 | DET | 110–128 | 37-86 | 9-41 | 27-30 | 16 | 10 | 104.8 | 121.9 | 105.0 |
| Feb 11 | DET | 92–132 | 35-100 | 10-47 | 12-19 | 14 | 14 | 87.6 | 128.2 | 104.0 |
| Feb 8 | GSW | 111–132 | 35-79 | 17-39 | 24-31 | 17 | 6 | 111.0 | 132.0 | 100.0 |
| Feb 5 | @MIN | 108–127 | 40-83 | 12-36 | 16-22 | 9 | 6 | 113.7 | 133.7 | 95.0 |
| Feb 4 | MIA | 133–124 | 48-91 | 19-41 | 18-22 | 10 | 7 | 127.9 | 121.6 | 103.0 |
| Feb 2 | @DET | 119–127 | 41-89 | 19-52 | 18-20 | 19 | 11 | 110.2 | 119.8 | 107.0 |
| Jan 31 | @TOR | 122–106 | 45-89 | 18-40 | 14-17 | 10 | 9 | 120.8 | 105.0 | 101.0 |
| Jan 29 | @BOS | 100–122 | 37-92 | 15-49 | 11-12 | 14 | 10 | 97.1 | 119.6 | 102.5 |
PHI
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22 | BKN | 103–105 | 36-85 | 10-39 | 21-24 | 13 | 14 | 109.6 | 112.9 | 93.5 |
| Feb 20 | BOS | 104–124 | 40-93 | 8-39 | 16-17 | 10 | 8 | 108.3 | 129.2 | 96.0 |
| Feb 12 | @BKN | 96–100 | 35-81 | 8-33 | 18-22 | 14 | 9 | 102.1 | 106.4 | 94.0 |
| Feb 11 | TOR | 103–106 | 37-91 | 9-38 | 20-24 | 14 | 13 | 102.0 | 105.0 | 101.0 |
| Feb 9 | @MIL | 127–135 | 47-89 | 18-45 | 15-19 | 14 | 7 | 125.7 | 129.8 | 102.5 |
| Feb 7 | @DET | 112–125 | 41-83 | 13-31 | 17-20 | 13 | 7 | 109.8 | 125.0 | 101.0 |
| Feb 5 | MIA | 101–108 | 37-96 | 12-40 | 15-20 | 4 | 11 | 103.1 | 109.1 | 98.5 |
| Feb 4 | DAL | 118–116 | 47-86 | 11-33 | 13-19 | 12 | 8 | 125.5 | 122.1 | 94.5 |
| Feb 2 | BOS | 110–118 | 37-82 | 15-32 | 21-28 | 10 | 7 | 113.4 | 122.9 | 96.5 |
| Jan 31 | DEN | 134–137 | 50-90 | 21-40 | 13-16 | 11 | 8 | 134.0 | 138.4 | 99.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | CHI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 142 | 110 |
| Field goals | 45–89 · 50.6% | 37–95 · 38.9% |
| Three-pointers | 18–40 · 45.0% | 10–40 · 25.0% |
| Free throws | 34–36 · 94.4% | 26–29 · 89.7% |
| Rebounds | 44 | 47 |
| Assists | 32 | 19 |
| Turnovers | 13 | 16 |
| Steals | 11 | 11 |
| Blocks | 6 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Philadelphia 76ers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (PHI) | +5 | −32 | −37 |
| Total points | 229 | 252 | +23 |
| CHI points | 112 | 142 | +30 |
| PHI points | 117 | 110 | −7 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25 2024-25 | PHI at CHI | PHI 109 – 97 CHI |
| Dec 8 2024-25 | PHI at CHI | PHI 108 – 100 CHI |
| Jan 2 2023-24 | CHI at PHI | CHI 97 – 110 PHI |
| Dec 30 2023-24 | PHI at CHI | PHI 92 – 105 CHI |
| Dec 18 2023-24 | CHI at PHI | CHI 108 – 104 PHI |