The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 20

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors

Monday, January 20, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

BOS 1–4@GSW 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 66 percent, GSW 34 percent. BOS Celtics 66% proj. 110 · final 125 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 34% proj. 103 · final 85
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 110 125 +15
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 103 85 −18

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 66% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBOSGSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16381496
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −72
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +8.9+0.6
Games played this season 4241
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.9112.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.7115.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.030.9
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1638GSW1496

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1638

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1742 → started this one at 1682
  2. First 32 games: −16.6
  3. Last 10 games: −27.4
  • WTOR125–71+4.5
  • W@MIN118–115+5.1
  • W@HOU109–86+17.9
  • L@OKC92–105−7.5
  • W@DEN118–106+10.7
  • LSAC97–114−28.6
  • WNOP120–119+0.6
  • L@TOR97–110−26.1
  • WORL121–94+7.9
  • LATL115–119−11.9

GSW1496

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
  2. First 31 games: −51.2
  3. Last 10 games: −43.0
  • LCLE95–113−13.0
  • WPHI139–105+14.5
  • WMEM121–113+7.9
  • LSAC99–129−32.6
  • LMIA98–114−19.9
  • W@DET107–104+6.4
  • L@IND96–108−6.8
  • L@TOR101–104−8.0
  • W@MIN116–115+6.6
  • WWAS122–114+1.9
Season scoring marginBOS+8.9GSW+0.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+8.9

Scores 117.5, allows 108.6 over 42 games: +8.9 a game.

GSW+0.6

Scores 111.4, allows 110.8 over 41 games: +0.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10BOS116.9GSW112.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

BOS116.9scored, +4.1 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.2%+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.4%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%24.7%+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1700.193−0.7
Everything else+0.4

GSW112.4scored, −0.5 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.3%54.2%+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.4%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%24.7%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1450.193−1.4
Everything else−0.2
Defensive rating, last 10BOS108.7GSW115.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

BOS108.7allowed, −4.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.3%54.2%+4.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.4%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%24.7%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1680.193+0.7
Everything else+0.1

GSW115.0allowed, +2.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.6%54.2%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%12.4%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.0%24.7%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1770.193+0.4
Everything else−1.6
Pace, last 10average 96.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 94.6 and GSW 97.5 → average 96.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingBOS0.0GSW30.9

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-20 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

GSW30.9pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jonathan Kuminga17.024.23
Draymond Green7.124.87
Kyle Anderson6.717.97

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-20 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestBOS2 daysGSW2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS2days

Last played Jan 18 against ATL.

GSW2days

Last played Jan 18 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 18ATL115–11940-10415-5220-231417104.5109.299.2
Jan 17ORL121–9442-8017-3720-221011134.4103.390.5
Jan 15@TOR97–11036-9116-469-18913103.2117.094.0
Jan 12NOP120–11944-10113-4419-231118118.8117.8101.0
Jan 10SAC97–11434-8411-4118-2215898.0114.099.5
Jan 7@DEN118–10644-8812-3518-201111124.2112.894.5
Jan 5@OKC92–10531-859-4621-24161294.8107.197.5
Jan 3@HOU109–8639-7719-3912-181412123.998.987.5
Jan 2@MIN118–11546-9222-574-6310137.2133.786.0
Dec 31TOR125–7147-8722-439-151311130.273.296.5

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 18WAS122–11445-9614-4118-24917123.2117.598.0
Jan 15@MIN116–11540-8218-3618-211214127.5127.890.5
Jan 13@TOR101–10435-8816-4615-221414107.4110.694.0
Jan 10@IND96–10838-9110-3810-13131199.0110.297.5
Jan 9@DET107–10441-8915-4610-161515110.3108.396.5
Jan 7MIA98–11440-9814-504-51011102.1120.095.5
Jan 5SAC99–12937-8112-3513-18229101.0129.099.0
Jan 4MEM121–11344-8423-4310-16189122.2113.099.5
Jan 2PHI139–10553-8722-3911-15115140.4106.199.0
Dec 30CLE95–11333-999-3820-26141490.5107.6105.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
66%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
BOS was the forecast favorite
33 pts
margin miss
forecast −7, actual −40 for GSW
847th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
29th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.41 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSGSW
Final score12585
Field goals49–92 · 53.3%32–92 · 34.8%
Three-pointers20–48 · 41.7%14–53 · 26.4%
Free throws7–8 · 87.5%7–11 · 63.6%
Rebounds5038
Assists3328
Turnovers912
Steals88
Blocks93

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)−7−40−33
Total points213210−3
BOS points110125+15
GSW points10385−18

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
BOS29254328–125
GSW18212422–85

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Jan 18 vs ATL L 115–119
Jan 17 vs ORL W 121–94
Jan 15 at TOR L 97–110
Jan 12 vs NOP W 120–119
Jan 10 vs SAC L 97–114

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Jan 18 vs WAS W 122–114
Jan 15 at MIN W 116–115
Jan 13 at TOR L 101–104
Jan 10 at IND L 96–108
Jan 9 at DET W 107–104

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 6 2024-25 GSW at BOS GSW 118 – 112 BOS
Mar 3 2023-24 GSW at BOS GSW 88 – 140 BOS
Dec 19 2023-24 BOS at GSW BOS 126 – 132 GSW
Jan 19 2022-23 GSW at BOS GSW 118 – 121 BOS
Dec 10 2022-23 BOS at GSW BOS 107 – 123 GSW