2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs

Sunday, March 30, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 3–5@SAS 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	116	148	+32
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home)	115	106	−9

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 51% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	SAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1563	1437
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−56
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.2	−1.9
Games played this season	73	75
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.4	118.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.4	119.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	10.8	0.0
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1563SAS1437

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1563

Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
First 63 games: −18.1
Last 10 games: −9.3

WDET115–110+5.3
WPOR130–120+5.0
WSAC130–104+11.3
WNYK97–94+4.4
LDEN105–114−11.7
WMIL104–93+7.3
WTOR117–114+1.6
L@ATL115–124−12.5
L@MIA86–112−28.0
W@NOP111–95+8.0

SAS1437

Ended last season at 1400 → started this one at 1425
First 65 games: −14.9
Last 10 games: +27.3

WDAL126–116+9.8
LCHA134–145−21.3
WNOP119–115+3.9
L@LAL109–125−4.3
WNYK120–105+20.6
WPHI128–120+5.4
W@TOR123–89+27.7
L@DET96–122−8.7
L@CLE116–124−1.8
LBOS111–121−4.0

Season scoring marginGSW+2.2SAS−1.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW+2.2

Scores 113.0, allows 110.7 over 73 games: +2.2 a game.

SAS−1.9

Scores 114.5, allows 116.5 over 75 games: −1.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10GSW112.4SAS118.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

GSW112.4scored, −1.3 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.2%	54.4%	−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.1%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.4%	25.2%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.241	0.193	+1.4
Everything else			−2.0

SAS118.9scored, +5.3 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.3%	54.4%	+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	12.1%	+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.5%	25.2%	+2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.198	0.193	+0.1
Everything else			−1.0

Defensive rating, last 10GSW109.4SAS119.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

GSW109.4allowed, −4.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.3%	54.4%	−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.8%	12.1%	+3.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	25.2%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.193	+0.1
Everything else			+1.2

SAS119.2allowed, +5.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.0%	54.4%	−7.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.1%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.7%	25.2%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.167	0.193	+0.8
Everything else			−0.1

Pace, last 10average 99.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 98.7 and SAS 99.3 → average 99.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingGSW10.8SAS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW10.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Gary Payton II	10.8	22.2	8

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-30 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestGSW2 daysSAS1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW2days

Last played Mar 28 against NOP.

SAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 29 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 28	@NOP	111–95	38-92	13-55	22-29	10	18	116.8	100.0	95.0
Mar 25	@MIA	86–112	33-83	9-38	11-16	12	14	94.5	124.4	90.5
Mar 22	@ATL	115–124	39-84	16-38	21-26	9	6	113.9	124.0	100.5
Mar 20	TOR	117–114	38-90	19-47	22-28	14	11	111.4	110.7	104.0
Mar 18	MIL	104–93	32-77	17-44	23-26	18	9	108.3	96.9	96.0
Mar 17	DEN	105–114	41-84	8-33	15-27	20	11	101.9	109.6	103.5
Mar 15	NYK	97–94	33-83	13-41	18-22	9	10	104.3	100.0	93.5
Mar 13	SAC	130–104	45-78	22-39	18-24	14	7	134.0	105.1	98.0
Mar 10	POR	130–120	45-85	21-41	19-21	17	12	130.0	118.8	100.5
Mar 8	DET	115–110	35-84	12-41	33-41	17	11	108.5	104.8	105.5

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 29	BOS	111–121	38-87	14-40	21-27	4	10	115.6	127.4	95.5
Mar 27	@CLE	116–124	43-106	14-43	16-21	10	19	113.7	120.4	102.5
Mar 25	@DET	96–122	33-91	14-44	16-20	10	16	103.2	131.2	93.0
Mar 23	@TOR	123–89	41-86	14-43	27-32	14	13	119.4	87.3	102.5
Mar 21	PHI	128–120	47-89	19-39	15-18	14	9	123.1	116.5	103.5
Mar 19	NYK	120–105	45-90	16-35	14-20	13	15	126.3	109.4	95.5
Mar 17	@LAL	109–125	41-88	15-38	12-14	17	9	110.1	123.8	100.0
Mar 15	NOP	119–115	39-84	16-39	25-33	10	8	119.0	115.0	100.0
Mar 14	CHA	134–145	48-95	21-46	17-22	13	17	136.7	146.5	98.5
Mar 12	DAL	126–116	50-94	11-35	15-16	16	13	122.3	114.9	102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

51%

pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner

GSW was the forecast favorite

41 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual −42 for SAS

437th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

11th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.67 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	SAS
Final score	148	106
Field goals	56–97 · 57.7%	40–84 · 47.6%
Three-pointers	21–44 · 47.7%	16–42 · 38.1%
Free throws	15–19 · 78.9%	10–16 · 62.5%
Rebounds	44	34
Assists	42	30
Turnovers	12	21
Steals	17	4
Blocks	3	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)	−1	−42	−41
Total points	231	254	+23
GSW points	116	148	+32
SAS points	115	106	−9

Recent form before this game