2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets

Wednesday, January 24, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 3–2@HOU 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	109	137	+28
HOU Houston Rockets (home)	117	131	+14

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	HOU
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1317	1455
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+208
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−9.4	+0.3
Games played this season	43	42
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	105.0	108.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	121.8	117.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	13.0	0.0
Rest days	1	3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1317HOU1455

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1317

Ended last season at 1315 → started this one at 1362
First 33 games: −40.3
Last 10 games: −4.8

L@DAL103–139−8.8
W@BKN134–127+15.8
L@NYK84–112−3.7
L@OKC77–139−5.6
L@MIN93–116−3.0
LPHX116–127−6.5
WBKN105–103+5.9
WIND118–115+9.2
L@LAL110–134−7.4
L@OKC109–111−0.7

HOU1455

Ended last season at 1333 → started this one at 1374
First 32 games: +112.4
Last 10 games: −32.1

LMIN95–122−17.3
WMIL112–108+8.0
L@MIA113–120−4.5
L@CHI119–124−5.0
W@DET112–110+2.1
L@BOS113–145−5.8
L@PHI115–124−4.2
L@NYK94–109−5.1
WUTA127–126+4.4
LBOS107–116−4.7

Season scoring marginPOR−9.4HOU+0.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−9.4

Scores 107.6, allows 117.0 over 43 games: −9.4 a game.

HOU+0.3

Scores 112.5, allows 112.1 over 42 games: +0.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR105.0HOU108.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.2).

POR105.0scored, −10.2 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.4%	54.7%	−8.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	11.6%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.5%	24.4%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.198	0.205	−0.2
Everything else			−0.4

HOU108.7scored, −6.5 vs league

Factor	HOU	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.3%	54.7%	−8.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.2%	11.6%	+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.4%	24.4%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.204	0.205	−0.0
Everything else			+0.2

Defensive rating, last 10POR121.8HOU117.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.2).

POR121.8allowed, +6.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.9%	54.7%	−7.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	11.6%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.3%	24.4%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.205	−0.5
Everything else			+0.7

HOU117.5allowed, +2.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.3%	54.7%	−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	11.6%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.4%	24.4%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.205	−0.5
Everything else			+0.4

Pace, last 10average 99.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 99.2 and HOU 100.1 → average 99.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingPOR13.0HOU0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR13.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Shaedon Sharpe	13.0	26.8	4

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-24 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

HOU0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-24 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestPOR1 daysHOU3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 23 against OKC.

HOU3days

Last played Jan 21 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 23	@OKC	109–111	37-86	18-39	17-21	19	12	107.9	108.8	101.5
Jan 21	@LAL	110–134	42-90	9-29	17-20	12	10	108.9	131.4	101.5
Jan 19	IND	118–115	42-84	4-12	30-35	9	9	118.0	111.7	101.5
Jan 17	BKN	105–103	42-86	9-27	12-14	9	10	118.0	114.4	89.5
Jan 14	PHX	116–127	40-89	20-42	16-22	13	12	119.6	133.7	96.0
Jan 12	@MIN	93–116	30-77	10-28	23-34	19	7	93.9	117.2	99.0
Jan 11	@OKC	77–139	28-101	11-49	10-16	9	13	75.5	137.6	101.5
Jan 9	@NYK	84–112	33-86	6-29	12-18	15	8	88.4	116.7	95.5
Jan 7	@BKN	134–127	45-95	20-38	24-30	9	6	125.2	118.7	96.9
Jan 5	@DAL	103–139	39-95	13-40	12-17	18	10	94.5	127.5	109.0

HOU

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 21	BOS	107–116	41-94	10-35	15-22	15	11	101.9	110.5	105.0
Jan 20	UTA	127–126	50-117	13-39	14-22	7	23	117.6	114.5	98.7
Jan 17	@NYK	94–109	35-84	8-30	16-19	10	6	98.9	114.7	95.0
Jan 15	@PHI	115–124	44-88	8-27	19-32	13	16	119.8	127.8	96.5
Jan 13	@BOS	113–145	40-99	7-30	26-30	12	15	104.6	135.5	107.5
Jan 12	@DET	112–110	41-90	8-30	22-25	9	10	113.1	111.1	99.0
Jan 10	@CHI	119–124	48-101	11-45	12-20	14	9	107.2	111.7	100.5
Jan 8	@MIA	113–120	37-88	14-41	25-28	12	12	116.5	122.4	97.5
Jan 6	MIL	112–108	36-83	13-34	27-32	10	7	112.0	106.9	100.5
Jan 5	MIN	95–122	36-90	12-32	11-15	15	5	95.0	119.6	101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

30%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored HOU

14 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −6 for HOU

30th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

393rd

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	HOU
Final score	137	131
Field goals	50–98 · 51.0%	50–94 · 53.2%
Three-pointers	15–35 · 42.9%	12–36 · 33.3%
Free throws	22–24 · 91.7%	19–22 · 86.4%
Rebounds	48	37
Assists	31	29
Turnovers	12	8
Steals	6	8
Blocks	4	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)	+8	−6	−14
Total points	226	268	+42
POR points	109	137	+28
HOU points	117	131	+14

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
POR	30	27	41	26	13	137
HOU	31	32	33	28	7	131

Recent form before this game