2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Miami Heat

Sunday, March 10, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

WAS 1–1@MIA 3–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	106	110	+4
MIA Miami Heat (home)	123	108	−15

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 83% win probability, projected margin 17.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	WAS	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1280	1562
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+352
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−9.7	+0.6
Games played this season	63	63
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.9	115.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.9	109.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	13.1	29.2
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1280MIA1562

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1280

Ended last season at 1436 → started this one at 1452
First 53 games: −155.0
Last 10 games: −17.2

L@NOP126–133−1.3
L@DEN110–130−2.9
L@OKC106–147−3.6
LCLE105–114−2.7
LGSW112–123−4.3
L@LAL131–134−1.3
L@LAC115–140−2.8
L@UTA115–127−4.1
LORL109–119−4.4
WCHA112–100+10.2

MIA1562

Ended last season at 1600 → started this one at 1575
First 53 games: −74.5
Last 10 games: +61.0

W@MIL123–97+30.6
W@PHI109–104+7.7
W@NOP106–95+17.2
W@SAC121–110+13.9
W@POR106–96+4.4
L@DEN97–103−4.9
WUTA126–120+3.3
WDET118–110+1.6
L@DAL108–114−7.7
L@OKC100–107−5.1

Season scoring marginWAS−9.7MIA+0.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−9.7

Scores 114.5, allows 124.2 over 63 games: −9.7 a game.

MIA+0.6

Scores 110.5, allows 109.9 over 63 games: +0.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10WAS109.9MIA115.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

WAS109.9scored, −5.0 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.5%	54.8%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	11.5%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.1%	24.2%	−1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.152	0.198	−1.3
Everything else			+1.5

MIA115.3scored, +0.4 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.8%	54.8%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	11.5%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.3%	24.2%	−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.202	0.198	+0.1
Everything else			−0.8

Defensive rating, last 10WAS120.9MIA109.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

WAS120.9allowed, +5.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.3%	54.8%	−6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	11.5%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.9%	24.2%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.175	0.198	+0.7
Everything else			+1.0

MIA109.5allowed, −5.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.0%	54.8%	+4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	11.5%	+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.0%	24.2%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.166	0.198	+0.9
Everything else			−0.3

Pace, last 10average 99.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 103.3 and MIA 96.5 → average 99.9 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.5)

Rotation points missingWAS13.1MIA29.2

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS13.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Marvin Bagley III	13.1	27.4	8

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-10 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MIA29.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Tyler Herro	19.0	33.0	3
Kevin Love	10.2	16.3	5

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-10 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysMIA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Mar 8 against CHA.

MIA2days

Last played Mar 8 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 8	CHA	112–100	43-87	6-33	20-23	11	5	113.1	101.0	99.0
Mar 6	ORL	109–119	40-88	12-38	17-20	9	4	114.7	122.7	96.0
Mar 4	@UTA	115–127	40-94	16-38	19-23	15	9	108.5	119.8	106.0
Mar 1	@LAC	115–140	46-98	12-34	11-15	9	9	111.7	135.9	103.0
Feb 29	@LAL	131–134	52-102	17-41	10-12	15	10	118.0	119.6	101.0
Feb 27	GSW	112–123	46-93	12-35	8-10	20	11	107.7	116.0	105.0
Feb 25	CLE	105–114	40-90	12-40	13-18	9	4	105.0	114.0	100.0
Feb 23	@OKC	106–147	41-104	9-38	15-21	14	16	96.4	131.3	111.0
Feb 22	@DEN	110–130	40-104	17-38	13-23	14	14	101.9	120.4	108.0
Feb 14	@NOP	126–133	44-92	21-45	17-20	19	15	122.3	127.9	103.5

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 8	@OKC	100–107	38-82	11-29	13-18	10	7	106.4	111.5	95.0
Mar 7	@DAL	108–114	40-82	17-38	11-17	10	2	113.7	118.8	95.5
Mar 5	DET	118–110	42-85	14-31	20-23	9	8	124.2	115.8	95.0
Mar 2	UTA	126–120	46-88	13-34	21-25	6	8	129.9	126.3	96.0
Feb 29	@DEN	97–103	35-83	7-26	20-24	14	9	96.0	103.0	100.5
Feb 27	@POR	106–96	37-70	14-26	18-26	18	6	114.0	103.2	93.0
Feb 26	@SAC	121–110	45-87	11-30	20-25	11	10	124.7	113.4	97.0
Feb 23	@NOP	106–95	38-82	13-29	17-25	14	10	109.3	99.0	96.5
Feb 14	@PHI	109–104	42-88	11-35	14-15	13	10	113.5	108.3	96.0
Feb 13	@MIL	123–97	45-87	19-40	14-18	14	7	121.8	96.0	101.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

17%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored MIA

19 pts

margin miss

forecast +17, actual −2 for MIA

1st

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

225th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.77 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	MIA
Final score	110	108
Field goals	39–81 · 48.1%	43–95 · 45.3%
Three-pointers	16–39 · 41.0%	10–33 · 30.3%
Free throws	16–22 · 72.7%	12–18 · 66.7%
Rebounds	40	51
Assists	35	20
Turnovers	15	13
Steals	5	9
Blocks	5	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+17	−2	−19
Total points	229	218	−11
WAS points	106	110	+4
MIA points	123	108	−15

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
WAS	25	23	33	29	–	110
MIA	27	27	28	26	–	108

Recent form before this game