The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 5

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers

Friday, January 5, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

NYK 0–1@PHI 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NYK 35 percent, PHI 65 percent. NYK Knicks 35% proj. 112 · final 128 PHI 76ers · home 65% proj. 117 · final 92
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NYK New York Knicks 112 128 +16
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) 117 92 −25

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 65% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNYKPHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15681646
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +149
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.0+10.2
Games played this season 3433
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 117.5118.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.0105.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.010.1
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNYK1568PHI1646

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NYK1568

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. First 24 games: +18.9
  3. Last 10 games: −17.2
  • L@LAC122–144−14.8
  • W@LAL114–109+7.8
  • W@BKN121–102+15.6
  • LMIL111–130−19.6
  • WMIL129–122+7.7
  • L@OKC120–129−6.6
  • L@ORL108–117−9.4
  • L@IND126–140−13.2
  • WMIN112–106+7.7
  • WCHI116–100+7.6

PHI1646

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1625 → started this one at 1593
  2. First 23 games: +41.8
  3. Last 10 games: +11.2
  • WDET124–92+2.3
  • W@CHA135–82+12.9
  • LCHI104–108−12.8
  • WMIN127–113+9.3
  • WTOR121–111+3.3
  • L@MIA113–119−8.3
  • W@ORL112–92+13.8
  • W@HOU131–127+4.1
  • L@CHI92–105−17.9
  • WCHI110–97+4.5
Season scoring marginNYK+2.0PHI+10.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NYK+2.0

Scores 115.3, allows 113.3 over 34 games: +2.0 a game.

PHI+10.2

Scores 120.7, allows 110.5 over 33 games: +10.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NYK117.5PHI118.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

NYK117.5scored, +2.5 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.0%54.6%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%11.7%+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.3%24.7%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2270.205+0.6
Everything else+2.0

PHI118.3scored, +3.3 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.6%+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)9.9%11.7%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)16.8%24.7%−3.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2250.205+0.6
Everything else+3.4
Defensive rating, last 10NYK119.0PHI105.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

NYK119.0allowed, +4.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.2%54.6%−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.1%11.7%−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.6%24.7%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.205−0.3
Everything else−0.1

PHI105.8allowed, −9.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.5%54.6%+6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.6%11.7%+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.6%24.7%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2120.205−0.2
Everything else+1.8
Pace, last 10average 99.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NYK 100.5 and PHI 98.9 → average 99.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingNYK0.0PHI10.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-05 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

PHI10.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
De'Anthony Melton10.128.68

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-05 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestNYK2 daysPHI3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NYK2days

Last played Jan 3 against CHI.

PHI3days

Last played Jan 2 against CHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 3CHI116–10046-8915-389-111513120.8105.395.5
Jan 1MIN112–10639-8912-3422-281316115.5110.496.5
Dec 30@IND126–14045-9517-3719-271313124.8137.3101.5
Dec 29@ORL108–11738-866-3026-29166103.8111.4104.5
Dec 27@OKC120–12941-8214-3424-30189120.0127.7100.5
Dec 25MIL129–12250-928-2621-26117129.0122.0100.0
Dec 23MIL111–13041-939-2920-211111107.8126.2103.0
Dec 20@BKN121–10244-9513-3320-251112121.0102.0100.0
Dec 18@LAL114–10942-8810-3020-231510111.8106.9102.0
Dec 16@LAC122–14444-9411-3523-261011120.8141.2101.5

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 2CHI110–9738-8012-3022-30173107.894.2102.5
Dec 30@CHI92–10536-929-3811-15710100.0114.192.0
Dec 29@HOU131–12745-8612-3329-33104135.1129.697.5
Dec 27@ORL112–9245-9610-2812-171012115.594.897.0
Dec 25@MIA113–11940-9417-4516-2575111.9117.8101.0
Dec 22TOR121–11144-8314-3119-21133121.0109.9100.5
Dec 20MIN127–11345-848-2229-32127125.7113.0100.5
Dec 18CHI104–10838-8811-3217-19128108.3113.795.5
Dec 16@CHA135–8253-8814-3115-17104137.882.099.0
Dec 15DET124–9241-9814-3728-31119120.488.5103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
35%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
the forecast favored PHI
41 pts
margin miss
forecast +5, actual −36 for PHI
87th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
8th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.04 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNYKPHI
Final score12892
Field goals43–89 · 48.3%33–81 · 40.7%
Three-pointers18–41 · 43.9%6–23 · 26.1%
Free throws24–25 · 96.0%20–27 · 74.1%
Rebounds4938
Assists2722
Turnovers1114
Steals78
Blocks79

How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)+5−36−41
Total points229220−9
NYK points112128+16
PHI points11792−25

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
NYK34411835–128
PHI30252116–92

Recent form before this game

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Jan 3 vs CHI W 116–100
Jan 1 vs MIN W 112–106
Dec 30 at IND L 126–140
Dec 29 at ORL L 108–117
Dec 27 at OKC L 120–129

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Jan 2 vs CHI W 110–97
Dec 30 at CHI L 92–105
Dec 29 at HOU W 131–127
Dec 27 at ORL W 112–92
Dec 25 at MIA L 113–119

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 10 2022-23 NYK at PHI NYK 108 – 119 PHI
Feb 5 2022-23 PHI at NYK PHI 97 – 108 NYK
Dec 25 2022-23 PHI at NYK PHI 119 – 112 NYK
Nov 4 2022-23 NYK at PHI NYK 106 – 104 PHI
Mar 2 2021-22 NYK at PHI NYK 108 – 123 PHI