2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics

Thursday, February 1, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

LAL 1–2@BOS 3–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	114	114	±0
BOS Boston Celtics (home)	126	105	−21

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	BOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1454	1702
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+318
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.4	+9.4
Games played this season	49	48
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	118.8	120.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	119.4	110.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	55.4	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1454BOS1702

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1454

Ended last season at 1584 → started this one at 1563
First 39 games: −97.6
Last 10 games: −11.5

L@UTA125–132−4.8
WOKC112–105+12.5
WDAL127–110+11.9
LBKN112–130−22.8
WPOR134–110+7.4
L@LAC116–127−3.9
WCHI141–132+8.4
W@GSW145–144+5.2
L@HOU119–135−11.8
L@ATL122–138−13.6

BOS1702

Ended last season at 1654 → started this one at 1616
First 38 games: +78.0
Last 10 games: +8.3

WHOU145–113+5.8
W@TOR105–96+4.9
WSAS117–98+1.5
LDEN100–102−8.0
W@HOU116–107+4.7
W@DAL119–110+5.0
W@MIA143–110+13.5
LLAC96–115−25.0
WNOP118–112+3.3
WIND129–124+2.6

Season scoring marginLAL−1.4BOS+9.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL−1.4

Scores 116.2, allows 117.6 over 49 games: −1.4 a game.

BOS+9.4

Scores 120.4, allows 111.0 over 48 games: +9.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAL118.8BOS120.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

LAL118.8scored, +3.6 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.5%	54.8%	+5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	11.6%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.9%	24.4%	−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.217	0.204	+0.4
Everything else			+0.1

BOS120.6scored, +5.3 vs league

Factor	BOS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.4%	54.8%	+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.3%	11.6%	+3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.2%	24.4%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.204	−0.4
Everything else			−0.0

Defensive rating, last 10LAL119.4BOS110.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.3).

LAL119.4allowed, +4.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.0%	54.8%	−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	11.6%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.8%	24.4%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.180	0.204	+0.7
Everything else			−0.5

BOS110.1allowed, −5.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.9%	54.8%	+7.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	8.3%	11.6%	−4.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.6%	24.4%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.143	0.204	+1.8
Everything else			+0.8

Pace, last 10average 101.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 103.5 and BOS 98.8 → average 101.1 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingLAL55.4BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL55.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
LeBron James	25.8	36.6	8
Anthony Davis	23.3	35.3	9
Cam Reddish	6.3	16.3	3

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-01 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-02-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestLAL2 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL2days

Last played Jan 30 against ATL.

BOS2days

Last played Jan 30 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 30	@ATL	122–138	48-90	12-33	14-25	14	7	111.9	127.8	108.5
Jan 29	@HOU	119–135	45-91	13-35	16-26	12	4	109.2	123.9	109.0
Jan 27	@GSW	145–144	49-101	9-27	38-43	19	7	114.2	113.4	105.1
Jan 25	CHI	141–132	53-87	20-31	15-20	12	5	136.9	128.2	103.0
Jan 23	@LAC	116–127	45-92	11-32	15-22	15	13	114.9	125.7	101.0
Jan 21	POR	134–110	47-86	13-33	27-29	12	10	131.4	108.9	101.5
Jan 19	BKN	112–130	40-90	12-33	20-24	14	10	110.9	130.0	100.5
Jan 17	DAL	127–110	49-91	12-28	17-24	10	9	125.7	107.8	101.5
Jan 15	OKC	112–105	44-84	8-24	16-18	17	8	114.3	105.0	99.0
Jan 13	@UTA	125–132	46-92	13-29	20-24	12	7	119.0	123.4	106.0

BOS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 30	IND	129–124	47-87	17-36	18-22	10	7	130.3	125.3	99.0
Jan 29	NOP	118–112	43-85	17-46	15-20	11	5	121.6	115.5	97.0
Jan 27	LAC	96–115	36-100	10-40	14-16	11	18	99.0	115.0	98.5
Jan 25	@MIA	143–110	51-80	22-40	19-20	11	6	149.0	115.8	95.5
Jan 22	@DAL	119–110	41-88	15-46	22-30	6	5	119.0	110.0	100.0
Jan 21	@HOU	116–107	43-98	17-47	13-18	16	16	110.5	101.9	105.0
Jan 19	DEN	100–102	38-89	14-44	10-14	2	12	116.3	118.6	86.0
Jan 17	SAS	117–98	42-90	18-38	15-19	12	12	119.4	100.0	98.0
Jan 15	@TOR	105–96	33-82	16-39	23-25	12	5	105.0	94.1	101.0
Jan 13	HOU	145–113	51-95	24-47	19-25	11	10	135.5	104.6	107.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner

the forecast favored BOS

21 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −9 for BOS

9th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

166th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	BOS
Final score	114	105
Field goals	38–94 · 40.4%	41–97 · 42.3%
Three-pointers	19–36 · 52.8%	16–48 · 33.3%
Free throws	19–26 · 73.1%	7–7 · 100.0%
Rebounds	52	54
Assists	30	30
Turnovers	7	15
Steals	11	4
Blocks	2	12

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)	+12	−9	−21
Total points	240	219	−21
LAL points	114	114	±0
BOS points	126	105	−21

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
LAL	28	32	28	26	–	114
BOS	25	21	32	27	–	105

Recent form before this game