The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 7

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings

Sunday, January 7, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

NOP 1–2@SAC 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NOP 41 percent, SAC 59 percent. NOP Pelicans 41% proj. 114 · final 133 SAC Kings · home 59% proj. 116 · final 100
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans 114 133 +19
SAC Sacramento Kings (home) 116 100 −16

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNOPSAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15781527
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +19
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.4+0.7
Games played this season 3634
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 119.1119.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.6118.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 26.45.3
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1578SAC1527

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1578

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1527
  2. First 26 games: +23.1
  3. Last 10 games: +28.3
  • W@SAS146–110+11.9
  • LMEM113–115−9.1
  • W@CLE123–104+19.6
  • LHOU104–106−7.5
  • LMEM115–116−7.1
  • WUTA112–105+3.4
  • WLAL129–109+10.3
  • WBKN112–85+9.3
  • W@MIN117–106+15.5
  • LLAC95–111−18.0

SAC1527

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. First 24 games: +17.9
  3. Last 10 games: −14.2
  • WWAS143–131+3.7
  • LBOS119–144−15.6
  • WPHX120–105+9.2
  • LMIN98–110−11.1
  • L@POR113–130−22.2
  • W@ATL117–110+10.1
  • W@MEM123–92+22.0
  • LCHA104–111−18.7
  • WORL138–135+4.1
  • WTOR135–130+4.3
Season scoring marginNOP+3.4SAC+0.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP+3.4

Scores 115.3, allows 111.9 over 36 games: +3.4 a game.

SAC+0.7

Scores 118.3, allows 117.5 over 34 games: +0.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NOP119.1SAC119.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

NOP119.1scored, +4.2 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.7%54.6%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%11.7%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%24.6%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.205−0.3
Everything else+0.1

SAC119.1scored, +4.2 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%54.6%+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%11.7%+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.7%24.6%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1540.205−1.5
Everything else+0.9
Defensive rating, last 10NOP108.6SAC118.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

NOP108.6allowed, −6.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.5%54.6%+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%11.7%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.3%24.6%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2130.205−0.2
Everything else+0.2

SAC118.3allowed, +3.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.5%54.6%−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%11.7%−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.8%24.6%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.205−0.5
Everything else+0.0
Pace, last 10average 98.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 97.1 and SAC 99.4 → average 98.3 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingNOP26.4SAC5.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP26.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Zion Williamson19.428.49
Jose Alvarado7.017.010

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-07 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

SAC5.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Trey Lyles5.219.94

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-07 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestNOP2 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP2days

Last played Jan 5 against LAC.

SAC2days

Last played Jan 5 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 5LAC95–11133-9212-2917-23913101.1118.194.0
Jan 3@MIN117–10645-8112-2615-17128125.8114.093.0
Jan 2BKN112–8541-8816-3914-181615119.191.493.5
Dec 31LAL129–10945-8717-3422-271112129.0107.9100.5
Dec 28UTA112–10545-8210-2712-15146119.1109.495.0
Dec 26MEM115–11642-9710-3121-331410102.7102.7101.9
Dec 23HOU104–10638-828-3120-291613110.6110.495.0
Dec 21@CLE123–10447-8615-3514-1697130.9113.093.0
Dec 19MEM113–11540-8511-2522-24117117.7118.696.5
Dec 17@SAS146–11055-9822-4214-221310135.2100.9108.5

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 5TOR135–13052-10021-3810-151411129.8125.0104.0
Jan 3ORL138–13551-10515-4021-311715116.9116.496.8
Jan 2CHA104–11140-9214-3610-172011103.0109.9101.0
Dec 31@MEM123–9247-9216-3313-17124123.092.0100.0
Dec 29@ATL117–11046-8917-458-15124117.0110.0100.0
Dec 26@POR113–13045-9310-4213-161011117.7134.096.5
Dec 23MIN98–11037-858-3316-21118102.1113.496.5
Dec 22PHX120–10544-8312-3820-26127122.4106.198.5
Dec 20BOS119–14443-9121-4412-23712124.0151.695.5
Dec 18WAS143–13153-10017-4320-2675134.9124.8105.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
41%
pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner
the forecast favored SAC
35 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual −33 for SAC
217th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
33rd
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 0.89 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNOPSAC
Final score133100
Field goals50–82 · 61.0%38–91 · 41.8%
Three-pointers19–35 · 54.3%15–45 · 33.3%
Free throws14–16 · 87.5%9–12 · 75.0%
Rebounds5125
Assists3528
Turnovers169
Steals29
Blocks92

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)+2−33−35
Total points230233+3
NOP points114133+19
SAC points116100−16

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
NOP33393130–133
SAC21261439–100

Recent form before this game

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Jan 5 vs LAC L 95–111
Jan 3 at MIN W 117–106
Jan 2 vs BKN W 112–85
Dec 31 vs LAL W 129–109
Dec 28 vs UTA W 112–105

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Jan 5 vs TOR W 135–130
Jan 3 vs ORL W 138–135
Jan 2 vs CHA L 104–111
Dec 31 at MEM W 123–92
Dec 29 at ATL W 117–110

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 4 2023-24 NOP at SAC NOP 127 – 117 SAC
Nov 22 2023-24 SAC at NOP SAC 112 – 117 NOP
Nov 20 2023-24 SAC at NOP SAC 93 – 129 NOP
Apr 4 2022-23 SAC at NOP SAC 121 – 103 NOP
Mar 6 2022-23 NOP at SAC NOP 108 – 123 SAC