The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 19

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans

Tuesday, December 19, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 0–0@NOP 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 30 percent, NOP 70 percent. MEM Grizzlies 30% proj. 112 · final 115 NOP Pelicans · home 70% proj. 120 · final 113
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 112 115 +3
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 120 113 −7

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMEMNOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14131562
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +219
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −6.8+2.1
Games played this season 2527
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 105.8120.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.0114.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 8.40.0
Rest days 12
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1413NOP1562

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1413

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1557 → started this one at 1543
  2. First 15 games: −106.0
  3. Last 10 games: −24.2
  • LMIN97–119−13.6
  • WUTA105–91+9.0
  • W@DAL108–94+19.8
  • L@PHX109–116−4.2
  • W@DET116–102+8.3
  • LMIN103–127−14.0
  • LDAL113–120−8.8
  • L@HOU104–117−7.2
  • LHOU96–103−8.3
  • L@OKC97–116−5.2

NOP1562

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1527
  2. First 17 games: +3.3
  3. Last 10 games: +31.7
  • L@UTA112–114−6.0
  • WPHI124–114+12.0
  • WSAS121–106+3.2
  • L@CHI118–124−8.3
  • W@SAC127–117+13.2
  • L@LAL89–133−23.1
  • WMIN121–107+13.9
  • W@WAS142–122+10.5
  • W@CHA112–107+4.4
  • W@SAS146–110+11.9
Season scoring marginMEM−6.8NOP+2.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−6.8

Scores 105.6, allows 112.4 over 25 games: −6.8 a game.

NOP+2.1

Scores 116.0, allows 113.8 over 27 games: +2.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MEM105.8NOP120.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).

MEM105.8scored, −8.8 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.4%54.4%−4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%11.8%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.1%24.9%−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1690.205−1.0
Everything else+0.5

NOP120.0scored, +5.5 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.2%54.4%+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%11.8%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%24.9%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2730.205+2.0
Everything else−1.7
Defensive rating, last 10MEM111.0NOP114.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).

MEM111.0allowed, −3.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.7%54.4%+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%11.8%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.6%24.9%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2300.205−0.7
Everything else−0.0

NOP114.6allowed, +0.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.3%54.4%−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%11.8%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.7%24.9%+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.205+0.0
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 100.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 99.3 and NOP 100.8 → average 100.1 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingMEM8.4NOP0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM8.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Derrick Rose8.420.95

Source: official injury report, 2023-12-19 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

NOP0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-12-19 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestMEM1 daysNOP2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 18 against OKC.

NOP2days

Last played Dec 17 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 18@OKC97–11630-8519-5418-2122791.5109.4106.0
Dec 15HOU96–10337-9211-4011-15171299.0105.197.5
Dec 13@HOU104–11735-8210-3824-34113101.0112.5103.5
Dec 11DAL113–12041-8918-4413-16178114.1120.099.5
Dec 8MIN103–12737-8615-3514-1998109.6132.395.0
Dec 6@DET116–10247-9111-2611-14149113.7100.0102.0
Dec 2@PHX109–11639-869-3122-24158105.8113.7102.5
Dec 1@DAL108–9444-9011-349-111413112.5100.095.0
Nov 29UTA105–9143-8713-396-81512110.596.894.5
Nov 26MIN97–11934-8810-3719-271311100.0120.298.0

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 17@SAS146–11055-9822-4214-221310135.2100.9108.5
Dec 15@CHA112–10738-809-2727-321511112.0108.199.5
Dec 13@WAS142–12250-9616-3426-30910134.0116.2105.5
Dec 11MIN121–10740-8210-2731-401310119.8104.9101.5
Dec 7@LAL89–13334-957-3114-20121286.4127.9103.5
Dec 4@SAC127–11747-8714-3119-231213127.0119.499.0
Dec 2@CHI118–12441-828-2528-351213122.9127.896.5
Dec 1SAS121–10642-8510-3127-291110121.0106.0100.0
Nov 29PHI124–11442-7810-3030-342013122.8116.399.5
Nov 27@UTA112–11444-887-2217-25811119.1118.895.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
30%
pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner
the forecast favored NOP
10 pts
margin miss
forecast +8, actual −2 for NOP
30th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
569th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMNOP
Final score115113
Field goals41–82 · 50.0%40–85 · 47.1%
Three-pointers10–31 · 32.3%11–25 · 44.0%
Free throws23–29 · 79.3%22–24 · 91.7%
Rebounds4239
Assists1923
Turnovers1711
Steals54
Blocks73

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)+8−2−10
Total points232228−4
MEM points112115+3
NOP points120113−7

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MEM25163638–115
NOP21392726–113

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Dec 18 at OKC L 97–116
Dec 15 vs HOU L 96–103
Dec 13 at HOU L 104–117
Dec 11 vs DAL L 113–120
Dec 8 vs MIN L 103–127

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Dec 17 at SAS W 146–110
Dec 15 at CHA W 112–107
Dec 13 at WAS W 142–122
Dec 11 vs MIN W 121–107
Dec 7 at LAL L 89–133

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 25 2023-24 NOP at MEM NOP 111 – 104 MEM
Apr 5 2022-23 MEM at NOP MEM 131 – 138 NOP
Dec 31 2022-23 NOP at MEM NOP 101 – 116 MEM
Nov 25 2022-23 NOP at MEM NOP 111 – 132 MEM
Nov 15 2022-23 MEM at NOP MEM 102 – 113 NOP