The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Feb 1

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies

Wednesday, February 1, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 5–0@MEM 1–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: POR 24 percent, MEM 76 percent. POR Trail Blazers 24% proj. 112 · final 122 MEM Grizzlies · home 76% proj. 123 · final 112
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
POR Portland Trail Blazers 112 122 +10
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home) 123 112 −11

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPORMEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14421600
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +229
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.4+4.4
Games played this season 5050
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 124.8114.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 123.8112.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.011.3
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1442MEM1600

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1442

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1249 → started this one at 1312
  2. First 40 games: +118.6
  3. Last 10 games: +11.2
  • LCLE113–119−6.0
  • WDAL136–119+16.8
  • WDAL140–123+14.9
  • L@DEN113–122−3.6
  • LPHI95–105−8.3
  • LLAL112–121−11.0
  • WSAS147–127+8.6
  • WUTA134–124+10.3
  • LTOR105–123−16.6
  • WATL129–125+6.1

MEM1600

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1630 → started this one at 1598
  2. First 40 games: +33.5
  3. Last 10 games: −30.9
  • WSAS135–129+1.6
  • W@IND130–112+11.2
  • WPHX136–106+8.2
  • WCLE115–114+2.1
  • L@LAL121–122−5.8
  • L@PHX110–112−6.3
  • L@SAC100–133−28.0
  • L@GSW120–122−5.1
  • L@MIN100–111−12.9
  • WIND112–100+4.1
Season scoring marginPOR+0.4MEM+4.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR+0.4

Scores 114.1, allows 113.7 over 50 games: +0.4 a game.

MEM+4.4

Scores 116.7, allows 112.3 over 50 games: +4.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10POR124.8MEM114.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.6).

POR124.8scored, +11.3 vs league

FactorPORLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.5%54.4%+7.6
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%12.2%+2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.8%23.9%−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2640.212+1.5
Everything else+1.6

MEM114.5scored, +1.0 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.8%54.4%−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.5%23.9%+2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.212−0.5
Everything else+0.1
Defensive rating, last 10POR123.8MEM112.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.6).

POR123.8allowed, +10.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.7%54.4%−5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)9.6%12.2%−3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.6%23.9%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.212−0.1
Everything else−0.6

MEM112.5allowed, −1.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.4%+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)14.4%12.2%+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.2%23.9%−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.212−0.1
Everything else−1.5
Pace, last 10average 100.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 97.8 and MEM 103.2 → average 100.5 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingPOR0.0MEM11.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-02-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MEM11.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Steven Adams11.327.66

Source: official injury report, 2023-02-01 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPOR2 daysMEM3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR2days

Last played Jan 30 against ATL.

MEM3days

Last played Jan 29 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 30ATL129–12543-7919-4024-2783138.7134.493.0
Jan 28TOR105–12340-767-2418-23113114.1133.792.0
Jan 25UTA134–12451-8917-3615-18106134.0125.399.5
Jan 23SAS147–12755-9220-3317-2298142.7124.5102.5
Jan 22LAL112–12137-8617-4621-251111113.1122.299.0
Jan 19PHI95–10532-859-3722-29151397.9108.297.0
Jan 17@DEN113–12238-8313-4024-25135115.3125.897.5
Jan 15DAL140–12343-8517-4437-4278142.9125.598.0
Jan 14DAL136–11949-8817-4121-22910138.8121.498.0
Jan 12CLE113–11940-7811-3322-29165110.8116.7102.0

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 29IND112–10043-899-3717-22715123.1109.991.0
Jan 27@MIN100–11138-938-3316-19201596.2106.7104.0
Jan 25@GSW120–12242-8810-3126-371311115.4117.3104.0
Jan 23@SAC100–13340-9812-368-10151095.2127.9104.5
Jan 22@PHX110–11240-9211-3219-272015105.8106.7104.5
Jan 20@LAL121–12243-1029-2926-401424114.2115.1106.0
Jan 18CLE115–11444-9711-3416-22815118.6118.896.5
Jan 16PHX136–10652-9816-3716-201013134.7103.9101.5
Jan 14@IND130–11248-8712-3222-28157116.1100.0112.0
Jan 11SAS135–12952-10114-2217-251317126.2118.3108.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
24%
pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner
the forecast favored MEM
21 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −10 for MEM
22nd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
136th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPORMEM
Final score122112
Field goals41–87 · 47.1%41–87 · 47.1%
Three-pointers14–36 · 38.9%9–37 · 24.3%
Free throws26–27 · 96.3%21–28 · 75.0%
Rebounds4144
Assists2428
Turnovers1312
Steals38
Blocks57

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)+11−10−21
Total points235234−1
POR points112122+10
MEM points123112−11

Recent form before this game

Portland Trail Blazers

DateOpponentResult
Jan 30 vs ATL W 129–125
Jan 28 vs TOR L 105–123
Jan 25 vs UTA W 134–124
Jan 23 vs SAS W 147–127
Jan 22 vs LAL L 112–121

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Jan 29 vs IND W 112–100
Jan 27 at MIN L 100–111
Jan 25 at GSW L 120–122
Jan 23 at SAC L 100–133
Jan 22 at PHX L 110–112

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 2 2022-23 MEM at POR MEM 111 – 106 POR
Feb 16 2021-22 POR at MEM POR 123 – 119 MEM
Dec 19 2021-22 POR at MEM POR 105 – 100 MEM
Dec 15 2021-22 MEM at POR MEM 113 – 103 POR
Oct 27 2021-22 MEM at POR MEM 96 – 116 POR