2022-23 · Playoffs · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies

Sunday, April 16, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

LAL 0–1@MEM 1–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	106	128	+22
MEM Memphis Grizzlies (home)	120	112	−8

Forecast: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	MEM
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1567	1590
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+93
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+0.6	+3.9
Games played this season	82	82
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	119.9	117.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.6	114.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	5	5
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1567MEM1590

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1567

Ended last season at 1413 → started this one at 1435
First 72 games: +79.7
Last 10 games: +52.4

WPHX122–111+9.5
WOKC116–111+5.1
LCHI108–118−12.7
W@CHI121–110+15.1
W@MIN123–111+14.8
W@HOU134–109+8.4
W@UTA135–133+3.9
L@LAC118–125−7.3
WPHX121–107+11.4
WUTA128–117+4.2

MEM1590

Ended last season at 1630 → started this one at 1598
First 72 games: −2.6
Last 10 games: −5.7

WHOU151–114+4.1
W@ATL123–119+5.6
WORL113–108+2.8
LLAC132–141−15.7
WLAC108–94+7.8
L@CHI107–128−16.0
WPOR119–109+2.4
L@NOP131–138−8.2
W@MIL137–114+26.9
L@OKC100–115−15.4

Season scoring marginLAL+0.6MEM+3.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+0.6

Scores 117.2, allows 116.6 over 82 games: +0.6 a game.

MEM+3.9

Scores 116.9, allows 113.0 over 82 games: +3.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAL119.9MEM117.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

LAL119.9scored, +5.7 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.6%	54.7%	+4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.0%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.5%	23.8%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.253	0.211	+1.2
Everything else			−1.5

MEM117.7scored, +3.6 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.3%	54.7%	+5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.0%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.0%	23.8%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.161	0.211	−1.4
Everything else			−0.3

Defensive rating, last 10LAL112.6MEM114.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

LAL112.6allowed, −1.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.7%	+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.0%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.8%	23.8%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.155	0.211	+1.6
Everything else			+0.6

MEM114.0allowed, −0.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.9%	54.7%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.0%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.1%	23.8%	+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.184	0.211	+0.8
Everything else			+0.6

Pace, last 10average 101.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 101.3 and MEM 102.6 → average 101.9 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingLAL0.0MEM0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-16 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-16 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestLAL5 daysMEM5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL5days

Last played Apr 9 against UTA (7 days, capped at 5).

MEM5days

Last played Apr 9 against OKC (7 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 9	UTA	128–117	47-97	18-45	16-21	10	10	121.9	110.4	105.5
Apr 7	PHX	121–107	45-92	18-36	13-17	15	10	116.3	102.9	104.0
Apr 5	@LAC	118–125	45-89	12-29	16-24	14	10	112.4	119.0	105.0
Apr 4	@UTA	135–133	48-96	12-34	27-35	11	11	121.6	119.8	100.5
Apr 2	@HOU	134–109	52-93	9-30	21-28	5	11	134.0	110.1	99.5
Mar 31	@MIN	123–111	45-90	9-22	24-30	16	15	116.0	106.7	105.0
Mar 29	@CHI	121–110	45-86	7-20	24-30	15	13	123.5	111.1	98.5
Mar 26	CHI	108–118	38-75	13-36	19-28	18	8	114.9	122.9	95.0
Mar 24	OKC	116–111	42-91	12-34	20-28	11	16	119.6	113.3	97.5
Mar 22	PHX	122–111	39-70	8-17	36-46	13	5	118.4	109.9	102.0

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 9	@OKC	100–115	40-92	7-37	13-18	12	11	98.0	113.9	101.5
Apr 7	@MIL	137–114	53-93	20-42	11-15	12	11	134.3	111.8	102.0
Apr 5	@NOP	131–138	50-104	12-36	19-25	13	15	118.0	124.3	100.5
Apr 4	POR	119–109	42-87	18-48	17-22	11	8	116.7	106.9	102.0
Apr 2	@CHI	107–128	39-84	19-43	10-12	18	8	108.1	130.6	98.5
Mar 31	LAC	108–94	43-96	9-33	13-17	14	12	102.9	90.4	104.5
Mar 29	LAC	132–141	49-95	11-32	23-28	13	14	123.4	133.0	106.5
Mar 28	ORL	113–108	42-88	12-34	17-23	16	7	105.6	101.9	106.5
Mar 26	@ATL	123–119	48-89	13-33	14-19	11	6	121.8	116.7	101.5
Mar 24	HOU	151–114	57-93	25-42	12-14	10	5	148.0	110.7	102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

19%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner

the forecast favored MEM

30 pts

margin miss

forecast +14, actual −16 for MEM

8th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

26th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.68 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	MEM
Final score	128	112
Field goals	49–92 · 53.3%	42–89 · 47.2%
Three-pointers	16–37 · 43.2%	13–36 · 36.1%
Free throws	14–16 · 87.5%	15–16 · 93.8%
Rebounds	45	34
Assists	25	24
Turnovers	14	12
Steals	7	6
Blocks	11	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MEM)	+14	−16	−30
Total points	226	240	+14
LAL points	106	128	+22
MEM points	120	112	−8

Recent form before this game