The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 28

2022-23 · Playoffs · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers

Friday, April 28, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 1–5@LAL 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 42 percent, LAL 58 percent. MEM Grizzlies 42% proj. 109 · final 85 LAL Lakers · home 58% proj. 112 · final 125
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 109 85 −24
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 112 125 +13

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 58% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMEMLAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15781578
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +71
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.7+0.6
Games played this season 8787
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.0114.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.7109.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1578LAL1578

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1578

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1630 → started this one at 1598
  2. First 77 games: +2.0
  3. Last 10 games: −22.2
  • L@CHI107–128−16.0
  • WPOR119–109+2.4
  • L@NOP131–138−8.2
  • W@MIL137–114+26.9
  • L@OKC100–115−15.4
  • LLAL112–128−19.2
  • WLAL103–93+8.4
  • L@LAL101–111−7.9
  • L@LAL111–117−5.5
  • WLAL116–99+12.3

LAL1578

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1413 → started this one at 1435
  2. First 77 games: +111.5
  3. Last 10 games: +32.5
  • W@HOU134–109+8.4
  • W@UTA135–133+3.9
  • L@LAC118–125−7.3
  • WPHX121–107+11.4
  • WUTA128–117+4.2
  • W@MEM128–112+19.2
  • L@MEM93–103−8.4
  • WMEM111–101+7.9
  • WMEM117–111+5.5
  • L@MEM99–116−12.3
Season scoring marginMEM+3.7LAL+0.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM+3.7

Scores 116.4, allows 112.8 over 87 games: +3.7 a game.

LAL+0.6

Scores 116.7, allows 116.1 over 87 games: +0.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MEM111.0LAL114.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

MEM111.0scored, −3.1 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.9%54.7%−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.0%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.3%23.8%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1610.210−1.4
Everything else−0.1

LAL114.5scored, +0.4 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.2%54.7%−0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.0%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%23.8%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.210−0.3
Everything else−1.0
Defensive rating, last 10MEM112.7LAL109.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

MEM112.7allowed, −1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.7%+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.0%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.7%23.8%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.210+0.6
Everything else+0.4

LAL109.7allowed, −4.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.7%54.7%+4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.1%12.0%−2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.1%23.8%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1640.210+1.3
Everything else+0.5
Pace, last 10average 100.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 100.2 and LAL 101.2 → average 100.7 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingMEM0.0LAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-28 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysLAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Apr 26 against LAL.

LAL2days

Last played Apr 26 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 26LAL116–9944-9914-4014-171114116.097.1101.0
Apr 24@LAL111–11742-1069-4218-211316100.9107.399.2
Apr 22@LAL101–11135-9313-3918-201818100.0108.8101.5
Apr 19LAL103–9338-8911-3616-211011107.397.995.5
Apr 16LAL112–12842-8913-3615-16126110.9128.0100.5
Apr 9@OKC100–11540-927-3713-18121198.0113.9101.5
Apr 7@MIL137–11453-9320-4211-151211134.3111.8102.0
Apr 5@NOP131–13850-10412-3619-251315118.0124.3100.5
Apr 4POR119–10942-8718-4817-22118116.7106.9102.0
Apr 2@CHI107–12839-8419-4310-12188108.1130.698.5

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 26@MEM99–11637-9210-3915-20131497.1116.0101.0
Apr 24MEM117–11141-9410-3625-311513107.3100.999.2
Apr 22MEM111–10141-907-2822-271311108.8100.0101.5
Apr 19@MEM93–10335-857-2616-21121197.9107.395.5
Apr 16@MEM128–11249-9216-3714-161410128.0110.9100.5
Apr 9UTA128–11747-9718-4516-211010121.9110.4105.5
Apr 7PHX121–10745-9218-3613-171510116.3102.9104.0
Apr 5@LAC118–12545-8912-2916-241410112.4119.0105.0
Apr 4@UTA135–13348-9612-3427-351111121.6119.8100.5
Apr 2@HOU134–10952-939-3021-28511134.0110.199.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
58%
pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner
LAL was the forecast favorite
37 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual +40 for LAL
686th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
10th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 0.55 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMLAL
Final score85125
Field goals29–96 · 30.2%49–91 · 53.8%
Three-pointers12–38 · 31.6%15–44 · 34.1%
Free throws15–20 · 75.0%12–15 · 80.0%
Rebounds4552
Assists1933
Turnovers1413
Steals106
Blocks215

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Los Angeles Lakers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+3+40+37
Total points221210−11
MEM points10985−24
LAL points112125+13

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Apr 26 vs LAL W 116–99
Apr 24 at LAL L 111–117
Apr 22 at LAL L 101–111
Apr 19 vs LAL W 103–93
Apr 16 vs LAL L 112–128

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Apr 26 at MEM L 99–116
Apr 24 vs MEM W 117–111
Apr 22 vs MEM W 111–101
Apr 19 at MEM L 93–103
Apr 16 at MEM W 128–112

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 26 2022-23 LAL at MEM LAL 99 – 116 MEM
Apr 24 2022-23 MEM at LAL MEM 111 – 117 LAL
Apr 22 2022-23 MEM at LAL MEM 101 – 111 LAL
Apr 19 2022-23 LAL at MEM LAL 93 – 103 MEM
Apr 16 2022-23 LAL at MEM LAL 128 – 112 MEM