The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 30

2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks

Thursday, April 30, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

NYK 3–3@ATL 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NYK 55 percent, ATL 45 percent. NYK Knicks 55% proj. 110 · final 140 ATL Hawks · home 45% proj. 108 · final 89
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NYK New York Knicks 110 140 +30
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home) 108 89 −19

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
55%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
NYK was the forecast favorite
49 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual −51 for ATL
544th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
6th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.59 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNYKATL
Final score14089
Field goals50–85 · 58.8%31–82 · 37.8%
Three-pointers13–36 · 36.1%9–35 · 25.7%
Free throws27–34 · 79.4%18–23 · 78.3%
Rebounds4635
Assists3322
Turnovers919
Steals165
Blocks64

How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)−2−51−49
Total points218229+11
NYK points110140+30
ATL points10889−19

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-30 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

New York Knicks

  • Questionable Josh Hart · Lower Back;Contusion

Atlanta Hawks

  • Out Jock Landale

Recent form before this game

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Apr 28 vs ATL W 126–97
Apr 25 at ATL W 114–98
Apr 23 at ATL L 108–109
Apr 20 vs ATL L 106–107
Apr 18 vs ATL W 113–102

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Apr 28 at NYK L 97–126
Apr 25 vs NYK L 98–114
Apr 23 vs NYK W 109–108
Apr 20 at NYK W 107–106
Apr 18 at NYK L 102–113

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 28 2025-26 ATL at NYK ATL 97 – 126 NYK
Apr 25 2025-26 NYK at ATL NYK 114 – 98 ATL
Apr 23 2025-26 NYK at ATL NYK 108 – 109 ATL
Apr 20 2025-26 ATL at NYK ATL 107 – 106 NYK
Apr 18 2025-26 ATL at NYK ATL 102 – 113 NYK