2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics

Tuesday, April 7, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

CHA 8–4@BOS 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	112	102	−10
BOS Boston Celtics (home)	107	113	+6

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	BOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1656	1684
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+98
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+5.2	+7.6
Games played this season	79	78
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	126.1	121.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.5	110.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	96.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1656BOS1684

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1656

Ended last season at 1237 → started this one at 1303
First 69 games: +328.2
Last 10 games: +25.0

WORL130–111+8.5
WMEM124–101+3.5
WSAC134–90+4.4
WNYK114–103+8.8
LPHI114–118−12.2
LBOS99–114−16.5
W@BKN117–86+6.6
WPHX127–107+7.7
WIND129–108+2.6
W@MIN122–108+11.6

BOS1684

Ended last season at 1664 → started this one at 1623
First 68 games: +27.1
Last 10 games: +34.3

WGSW120–99+5.4
W@MEM117–112+2.7
LMIN92–102−18.1
WOKC119–109+11.2
WATL109–102+4.4
W@CHA114–99+16.5
L@ATL102–112−11.8
W@MIA147–129+11.8
W@MIL133–101+7.2
WTOR115–101+5.0

Season scoring marginCHA+5.2BOS+7.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA+5.2

Scores 116.5, allows 111.3 over 79 games: +5.2 a game.

BOS+7.6

Scores 114.6, allows 107.0 over 78 games: +7.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA126.1BOS121.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

CHA126.1scored, +11.3 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.9%	54.6%	+6.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.2%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	35.2%	26.0%	+4.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			+0.9

BOS121.5scored, +6.7 vs league

Factor	BOS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.2%	54.6%	+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.6%	12.2%	+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.4%	26.0%	+2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.207	0.210	−0.1
Everything else			+0.3

Defensive rating, last 10CHA109.5BOS110.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

CHA109.5allowed, −5.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.7%	54.6%	+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.2%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.1%	26.0%	+3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.170	0.210	+1.1
Everything else			−0.2

BOS110.8allowed, −4.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.4%	54.6%	+3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	12.2%	−3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.4%	26.0%	+3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.171	0.210	+1.1
Everything else			−0.4

Pace, last 10average 96.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 95.8 and BOS 96.3 → average 96.0 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingCHA0.0BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-07 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-07 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Apr 5 against MIN.

BOS2days

Last played Apr 5 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 5	@MIN	122–108	45-92	19-45	13-15	15	16	124.5	111.3	97.5
Apr 3	IND	129–108	46-96	24-49	13-15	9	12	130.3	109.1	99.0
Apr 2	PHX	127–107	48-93	18-49	13-15	10	11	132.3	112.6	95.5
Mar 31	@BKN	117–86	41-87	12-39	23-25	11	13	123.2	90.5	95.0
Mar 29	BOS	99–114	36-83	12-43	15-19	11	10	108.8	125.3	91.0
Mar 28	PHI	114–118	36-96	17-55	25-32	9	21	117.5	122.9	96.5
Mar 26	NYK	114–103	41-78	16-41	16-20	16	12	129.5	115.7	88.5
Mar 24	SAC	134–90	48-94	26-55	12-16	13	12	138.1	90.9	98.0
Mar 21	MEM	124–101	45-85	18-43	16-24	17	13	125.3	102.0	99.0
Mar 19	ORL	130–111	42-80	22-46	24-27	22	10	131.3	114.4	98.0

BOS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 5	TOR	115–101	47-88	8-28	13-16	15	12	118.6	103.1	97.5
Apr 3	@MIL	133–101	50-89	17-37	16-19	8	10	141.5	109.8	93.0
Apr 1	@MIA	147–129	56-96	21-44	14-20	7	11	151.5	130.3	98.0
Mar 30	@ATL	102–112	35-85	14-37	18-26	15	10	103.0	113.1	99.0
Mar 29	@CHA	114–99	42-83	14-34	16-22	5	8	125.3	108.8	91.0
Mar 27	ATL	109–102	38-81	14-35	19-23	15	13	119.8	112.1	91.0
Mar 25	OKC	119–109	38-81	18-41	25-29	13	7	122.7	113.5	96.5
Mar 22	MIN	92–102	34-95	9-33	15-18	11	13	91.1	102.0	100.5
Mar 20	@MEM	117–112	40-89	11-42	26-30	12	18	120.6	115.5	97.0
Mar 18	GSW	120–99	44-92	14-39	18-19	16	15	121.2	100.0	99.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

36%

pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner

the forecast favored CHA

16 pts

margin miss

forecast −5, actual +11 for BOS

158th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

324th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.02 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	BOS
Final score	102	113
Field goals	38–88 · 43.2%	43–87 · 49.4%
Three-pointers	16–49 · 32.7%	17–42 · 40.5%
Free throws	10–13 · 76.9%	10–12 · 83.3%
Rebounds	40	45
Assists	24	22
Turnovers	12	12
Steals	5	6
Blocks	3	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)	−5	+11	+16
Total points	219	215	−4
CHA points	112	102	−10
BOS points	107	113	+6

Recent form before this game