2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets

Friday, April 24, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

LAL 0–2@HOU 2–6 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	101	112	+11
HOU Houston Rockets (home)	107	108	+1

Forecast: Houston Rockets to win, 65% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

35%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner

the forecast favored HOU

10 pts

margin miss

forecast +6, actual −4 for HOU

143rd

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

605th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.06 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	HOU
Final score	112	108
Field goals	38–79 · 48.1%	40–98 · 40.8%
Three-pointers	12–29 · 41.4%	11–39 · 28.2%
Free throws	24–32 · 75.0%	17–23 · 73.9%
Rebounds	45	49
Assists	28	21
Turnovers	20	15
Steals	12	15
Blocks	6	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Houston Rockets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (HOU)	+6	−4	−10
Total points	208	220	+12
LAL points	101	112	+11
HOU points	107	108	+1

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-24 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.