2025-26 · Playoffs · Final
New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs
Wednesday, June 3, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET
NYK 3–3@SAS 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYK New York Knicks | 99 | 105 | +6 |
| SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) | 110 | 95 | −15 |
Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | NYK | SAS |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1774 | 1784 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +79 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +8.2 | +8.6 |
| Games played this season | 95 | 101 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 127.1 | 115.3 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 101.9 | 107.0 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 97.9 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 5 | 4 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
| Playoff series state | 0 home series wins | |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingNYK1774SAS1784
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
NYK1774
- Ended last season at 1606 → started this one at 1580
- First 85 games: +74.8
- Last 10 games: +119.9
- WATL126–97+11.3
- W@ATL140–89+28.7
- WPHI137–98+11.3
- WPHI108–102+2.9
- W@PHI108–94+9.2
- W@PHI144–114+14.4
- WCLE115–104+5.5
- WCLE109–93+6.7
- W@CLE121–108+10.3
- W@CLE130–93+19.6
SAS1784
- Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
- First 91 games: +317.2
- Last 10 games: +28.8
- L@MIN109–114−9.8
- WMIN126–97+7.9
- W@MIN139–109+14.7
- W@OKC122–115+10.4
- L@OKC113–122−8.3
- LOKC108–123−17.8
- WOKC103–82+14.1
- L@OKC114–127−9.5
- WOKC118–91+16.3
- W@OKC111–103+10.8
Season scoring marginNYK+8.2SAS+8.6
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
NYK+8.2
Scores 116.8, allows 108.6 over 95 games: +8.2 a game.
SAS+8.6
Scores 118.9, allows 110.4 over 101 games: +8.6 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10NYK127.1SAS115.3
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
NYK127.1scored, +12.5 vs league
| Factor | NYK | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 61.8% | 54.5% | +11.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.1% | 12.2% | +1.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 28.8% | 26.1% | +1.2 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.237 | 0.210 | +0.8 | |
| Everything else | −2.0 |
SAS115.3scored, +0.7 vs league
| Factor | SAS | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.5% | 54.5% | −1.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.2% | 12.2% | −1.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 30.5% | 26.1% | +2.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.251 | 0.210 | +1.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Defensive rating, last 10NYK101.9SAS107.0
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
NYK101.9allowed, −12.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 50.0% | 54.5% | +6.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.1% | 12.2% | +2.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 20.7% | 26.1% | +2.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.221 | 0.210 | −0.3 | |
| Everything else | +1.1 |
SAS107.0allowed, −7.6 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 48.7% | 54.5% | +8.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.1% | 12.2% | −1.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.3% | 26.1% | +0.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.226 | 0.210 | −0.5 | |
| Everything else | +0.5 |
Pace, last 10average 97.9
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
NYK 96.5 and SAS 99.2 → average 97.9 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.0)
Rotation points missingNYK0.0SAS0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
NYK0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-06-03 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
SAS0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-06-03 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
RestNYK5 daysSAS4 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
NYK5days
Last played May 25 against CLE (9 days, capped at 5).
SAS4days
Last played May 30 against OKC.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
NYK
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | @CLE | 130–93 | 48-98 | 19-43 | 15-20 | 13 | 20 | 127.5 | 91.2 | 102.0 |
| May 23 | @CLE | 121–108 | 43-77 | 11-28 | 24-27 | 14 | 8 | 124.7 | 110.2 | 97.5 |
| May 21 | CLE | 109–93 | 44-85 | 13-36 | 8-14 | 6 | 5 | 122.5 | 104.5 | 89.0 |
| May 19 | CLE | 115–104 | 42-88 | 10-32 | 21-32 | 17 | 9 | 105.5 | 96.3 | 98.3 |
| May 10 | @PHI | 144–114 | 49-91 | 25-44 | 21-29 | 9 | 15 | 146.9 | 116.3 | 98.0 |
| May 8 | @PHI | 108–94 | 38-76 | 9-27 | 23-32 | 14 | 13 | 114.9 | 101.1 | 93.5 |
| May 6 | PHI | 108–102 | 40-79 | 7-26 | 21-25 | 13 | 9 | 113.7 | 108.5 | 94.5 |
| May 4 | PHI | 137–98 | 53-84 | 19-37 | 12-17 | 14 | 8 | 139.8 | 99.0 | 98.5 |
| Apr 30 | @ATL | 140–89 | 50-85 | 13-36 | 27-34 | 9 | 9 | 141.4 | 89.0 | 99.5 |
| Apr 28 | ATL | 126–97 | 45-79 | 11-26 | 25-34 | 11 | 8 | 134.0 | 103.2 | 94.0 |
SAS
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30 | @OKC | 111–103 | 40-88 | 17-40 | 14-19 | 12 | 15 | 120.7 | 109.6 | 93.0 |
| May 28 | OKC | 118–91 | 41-88 | 15-41 | 21-25 | 12 | 11 | 119.2 | 91.0 | 99.5 |
| May 26 | @OKC | 114–127 | 37-92 | 12-41 | 28-32 | 15 | 15 | 112.9 | 124.5 | 101.5 |
| May 24 | OKC | 103–82 | 35-90 | 9-33 | 24-32 | 12 | 14 | 102.0 | 80.4 | 101.5 |
| May 22 | OKC | 108–123 | 34-80 | 13-41 | 27-33 | 15 | 9 | 111.3 | 124.2 | 98.0 |
| May 20 | @OKC | 113–122 | 41-84 | 16-40 | 15-17 | 21 | 16 | 116.5 | 124.5 | 97.5 |
| May 18 | @OKC | 122–115 | 41-96 | 13-43 | 27-29 | 21 | 15 | 106.1 | 102.7 | 93.9 |
| May 15 | @MIN | 139–109 | 49-88 | 18-38 | 23-27 | 15 | 12 | 133.7 | 103.8 | 104.5 |
| May 12 | MIN | 126–97 | 47-89 | 11-32 | 21-27 | 15 | 11 | 122.3 | 94.2 | 103.0 |
| May 10 | @MIN | 109–114 | 41-86 | 6-26 | 21-27 | 14 | 13 | 107.9 | 115.2 | 100.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | NYK | SAS |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 105 | 95 |
| Field goals | 39–94 · 41.5% | 32–89 · 36.0% |
| Three-pointers | 11–36 · 30.6% | 11–43 · 25.6% |
| Free throws | 16–18 · 88.9% | 20–25 · 80.0% |
| Rebounds | 49 | 54 |
| Assists | 20 | 16 |
| Turnovers | 8 | 13 |
| Steals | 8 | 4 |
| Blocks | 4 | 4 |
How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · San Antonio Spurs
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (SAS) | +11 | −10 | −21 |
| Total points | 209 | 200 | −9 |
| NYK points | 99 | 105 | +6 |
| SAS points | 110 | 95 | −15 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 2025-26 | SAS at NYK | SAS 89 – 114 NYK |
| Dec 31 2025-26 | NYK at SAS | NYK 132 – 134 SAS |
| Mar 19 2024-25 | NYK at SAS | NYK 105 – 120 SAS |
| Dec 25 2024-25 | SAS at NYK | SAS 114 – 117 NYK |
| Mar 29 2023-24 | NYK at SAS | NYK 126 – 130 SAS |