The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 10

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings

Monday, March 10, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

NYK 1–3@SAC 3–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NYK 33 percent, SAC 67 percent. NYK Knicks 33% proj. 107 · final 133 SAC Kings · home 67% proj. 113 · final 104
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NYK New York Knicks 107 133 +26
SAC Sacramento Kings (home) 113 104 −9

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNYKSAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15731543
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +41
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.1+1.9
Games played this season 6363
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 108.4120.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.1112.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 28.712.0
Rest days 31
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNYK1573SAC1543

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NYK1573

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1577 → started this one at 1558
  2. First 53 games: +50.5
  3. Last 10 games: −35.4
  • WATL149–148+1.6
  • WCHI113–111+1.1
  • L@CLE105–142−12.6
  • L@BOS105–118−6.0
  • WPHI110–105+1.9
  • W@MEM114–113+5.3
  • W@MIA116–112+4.9
  • LGSW102–114−17.3
  • L@LAL109–113−4.2
  • L@LAC95–105−10.1

SAC1543

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1540 → started this one at 1530
  2. First 53 games: −15.4
  3. Last 10 games: +28.9
  • W@NOP119–111+5.8
  • L@NOP133–140−12.4
  • LGSW108–132−23.6
  • WCHA130–88+8.1
  • W@UTA118–101+12.6
  • W@HOU113–103+15.5
  • W@DAL122–98+23.4
  • L@DEN110–116−4.1
  • WSAS127–109+6.9
  • L@LAC110–111−3.3
Season scoring marginNYK+4.1SAC+1.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NYK+4.1

Scores 116.9, allows 112.8 over 63 games: +4.1 a game.

SAC+1.9

Scores 116.8, allows 114.9 over 63 games: +1.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NYK108.4SAC120.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.4).

NYK108.4scored, −5.0 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.9%54.2%−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.1%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.0%25.1%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1740.194−0.6
Everything else−1.0

SAC120.9scored, +7.5 vs league

FactorSACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.2%54.2%+4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.1%+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.8%25.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1730.194−0.6
Everything else+1.0
Defensive rating, last 10NYK115.1SAC112.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.4).

NYK115.1allowed, +1.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.2%54.2%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.1%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.6%25.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1700.194+0.7
Everything else+0.4

SAC112.4allowed, −1.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.2%+0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.1%−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.3%25.1%+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.194−0.1
Everything else+1.3
Pace, last 10average 97.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NYK 98.6 and SAC 96.5 → average 97.6 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingNYK28.7SAC12.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NYK28.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Brunson28.737.89

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-10 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

SAC12.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Domantas Sabonis12.028.46

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-10 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestNYK3 daysSAC1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NYK3days

Last played Mar 7 against LAC.

SAC1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 9 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 7@LAC95–10535-919-3416-18151496.9107.198.0
Mar 6@LAL109–11337-9410-4325-321314102.8108.795.1
Mar 4GSW102–11441-928-3312-151314105.2116.397.5
Mar 2@MIA116–11246-9514-4410-151011116.0112.090.6
Feb 28@MEM114–11344-9513-3813-1688110.7111.9102.0
Feb 26PHI110–10540-777-1923-29167112.2107.198.0
Feb 23@BOS105–11840-9214-3611-11117108.2122.996.5
Feb 21@CLE105–14242-8910-2811-18169101.9137.9103.0
Feb 20CHI113–11146-10714-467-101110102.7100.999.6
Feb 12ATL149–14854-9411-2630-37178127.4126.5106.0

SAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 9@LAC110–11140-879-3421-2587110.0113.389.7
Mar 7SAS127–10949-9617-3812-19814133.7116.094.5
Mar 5@DEN110–11644-9611-2711-141213112.2116.099.0
Mar 3@DAL122–9847-9016-3412-1277129.8105.493.5
Mar 1@HOU113–10344-879-2816-211310118.9106.296.0
Feb 26@UTA118–10146-8715-3611-12127121.6103.197.5
Feb 24CHA130–8847-8720-3816-18189131.388.999.0
Feb 21GSW108–13240-7911-3217-182111112.5136.196.5
Feb 13@NOP133–14049-11217-4718-211419117.7125.0101.9
Feb 12@NOP119–11141-8716-4521-291111121.4114.497.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
33%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
the forecast favored SAC
35 pts
margin miss
forecast +6, actual −29 for SAC
115th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
19th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.10 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNYKSAC
Final score133104
Field goals45–84 · 53.6%36–86 · 41.9%
Three-pointers22–40 · 55.0%10–34 · 29.4%
Free throws21–26 · 80.8%22–26 · 84.6%
Rebounds4037
Assists3418
Turnovers1516
Steals137
Blocks14

How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)+6−29−35
Total points220237+17
NYK points107133+26
SAC points113104−9

Recent form before this game

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Mar 7 at LAC L 95–105
Mar 6 at LAL L 109–113
Mar 4 vs GSW L 102–114
Mar 2 at MIA W 116–112
Feb 28 at MEM W 114–113

Sacramento Kings

DateOpponentResult
Mar 9 at LAC L 110–111
Mar 7 vs SAS W 127–109
Mar 5 at DEN L 110–116
Mar 3 at DAL W 122–98
Mar 1 at HOU W 113–103

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 25 2024-25 SAC at NYK SAC 120 – 143 NYK
Apr 4 2023-24 SAC at NYK SAC 109 – 120 NYK
Mar 16 2023-24 NYK at SAC NYK 98 – 91 SAC
Mar 9 2022-23 NYK at SAC NYK 117 – 122 SAC
Dec 11 2022-23 SAC at NYK SAC 99 – 112 NYK