The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 25

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets

Saturday, January 25, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

NOP 1–1@CHA 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NOP 54 percent, CHA 46 percent. NOP Pelicans 54% proj. 114 · final 92 CHA Hornets · home 46% proj. 112 · final 123
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans 114 92 −22
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) 112 123 +11

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 54% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNOPCHA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13761333
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +27
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −8.1−5.6
Games played this season 4541
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 116.4109.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.7110.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 7.050.3
Rest days 11
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1376CHA1333

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1376

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1553 → started this one at 1540
  2. First 35 games: −201.5
  3. Last 10 games: +38.2
  • W@WAS110–98+12.1
  • LMIN97–104−4.8
  • LPOR100–119−20.6
  • W@PHI123–115+17.0
  • L@BOS119–120−0.6
  • W@CHI119–113+13.3
  • WDAL119–116+8.5
  • WUTA136–123+11.1
  • WUTA123–119+5.2
  • L@MEM126–139−3.0

CHA1333

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1321 → started this one at 1366
  2. First 31 games: −57.7
  3. Last 10 games: +24.6
  • LCHI108–115−6.4
  • L@DET94–98−2.6
  • L@CLE105–115−1.0
  • WPHX115–104+16.3
  • L@PHX113–120−2.8
  • W@UTA117–112+12.0
  • W@CHI125–123+8.1
  • WDAL110–105+11.5
  • L@MEM120–132−2.4
  • LPOR97–102−8.1
Season scoring marginNOP−8.1CHA−5.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−8.1

Scores 109.6, allows 117.7 over 45 games: −8.1 a game.

CHA−5.6

Scores 107.2, allows 112.7 over 41 games: −5.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NOP116.4CHA109.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

NOP116.4scored, +3.7 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.2%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.5%12.4%+2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.8%24.8%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.192+0.4
Everything else+2.9

CHA109.2scored, −3.6 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.5%54.2%−5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.4%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.2%24.8%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.192+0.3
Everything else+0.7
Defensive rating, last 10NOP115.7CHA110.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

NOP115.7allowed, +2.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.2%+0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.4%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.1%24.8%−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1630.192+0.8
Everything else−0.3

CHA110.9allowed, −1.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.2%+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.4%−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%24.8%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1790.192+0.4
Everything else+1.1
Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 99.7 and CHA 100.3 → average 100.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingNOP7.0CHA50.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP7.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Herbert Jones7.029.23

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

CHA50.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Mark Williams19.830.210
Brandon Miller19.032.74
Cody Martin5.820.99
KJ Simpson5.817.94

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestNOP1 daysCHA1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 24 against MEM.

CHA1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 24 against POR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 24@MEM126–13945-8314-3422-32126126.0140.499.5
Jan 20UTA123–11941-9215-4126-29133108.8105.3102.3
Jan 17UTA136–12347-10022-5020-311316130.8119.4103.5
Jan 15DAL119–11643-9713-3920-241013115.5112.6103.0
Jan 14@CHI119–11342-9614-5021-261012119.0110.8101.0
Jan 12@BOS119–12040-8617-3722-2696117.8118.8101.0
Jan 10@PHI123–11544-9118-4017-261210125.5117.398.0
Jan 8POR100–11940-9012-378-111710108.7128.092.5
Jan 7MIN97–10435-9412-4115-241410100.0105.198.0
Jan 5@WAS110–9837-9018-4918-20119112.299.098.5

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 24POR97–10232-859-3124-281613101.0106.396.0
Jan 22@MEM120–13241-8611-3127-321611115.4126.9104.0
Jan 20DAL110–10540-9817-3913-181316113.4107.197.5
Jan 17@CHI125–12348-9613-3416-201211122.5119.4102.5
Jan 15@UTA117–11245-8512-3915-211811115.8110.9101.0
Jan 12@PHX113–12041-9215-4016-201615114.1118.8100.0
Jan 7PHX115–10438-9813-4726-291120113.9103.0101.0
Jan 5@CLE105–11538-9115-4214-191513106.1115.099.5
Jan 3@DET94–9833-809-3019-3017994.9100.098.5
Dec 30CHI108–11542-10110-4314-2014694.7101.8102.8

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
46%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
the forecast favored NOP
33 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual +31 for CHA
370th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
29th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.77 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNOPCHA
Final score92123
Field goals32–84 · 38.1%42–84 · 50.0%
Three-pointers8–31 · 25.8%21–50 · 42.0%
Free throws20–26 · 76.9%18–25 · 72.0%
Rebounds3948
Assists2128
Turnovers1314
Steals811
Blocks55

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)−2+31+33
Total points226215−11
NOP points11492−22
CHA points112123+11

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
NOP23222324–92
CHA31323030–123

Recent form before this game

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Jan 24 at MEM L 126–139
Jan 20 vs UTA W 123–119
Jan 17 vs UTA W 136–123
Jan 15 vs DAL W 119–116
Jan 14 at CHI W 119–113

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Jan 24 vs POR L 97–102
Jan 22 at MEM L 120–132
Jan 20 vs DAL W 110–105
Jan 17 at CHI W 125–123
Jan 15 at UTA W 117–112

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 17 2023-24 CHA at NOP CHA 112 – 132 NOP
Dec 15 2023-24 NOP at CHA NOP 112 – 107 CHA
Mar 23 2022-23 CHA at NOP CHA 96 – 115 NOP
Oct 21 2022-23 NOP at CHA NOP 124 – 112 CHA
Mar 21 2021-22 NOP at CHA NOP 103 – 106 CHA