2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat

Monday, March 10, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 4–2@MIA 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	104	105	+1
MIA Miami Heat (home)	116	102	−14

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 79% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1251	1450
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+269
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−7.6	−0.8
Games played this season	63	62
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	102.1	113.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.6	112.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	19.1	7.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1251MIA1450

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1251

Ended last season at 1321 → started this one at 1366
First 53 games: −65.9
Last 10 games: −49.2

L@DEN115–129−1.7
L@POR88–141−12.7
L@SAC88–130−8.1
L@GSW92–128−4.9
L@DAL96–103−1.7
LWAS100–113−16.8
LGSW101–119−5.6
LMIN110–125−3.3
LCLE117–118−0.5
WBKN105–102+6.1

MIA1450

Ended last season at 1543 → started this one at 1532
First 52 games: −84.4
Last 10 games: +2.4

W@TOR120–111+10.3
L@MIL113–120−5.1
L@ATL86–98−9.0
WATL131–109+14.0
WIND125–120+8.6
LNYK112–116−4.9
WWAS106–90+4.0
L@CLE107–112−1.3
LMIN104–106−3.4
LCHI109–114−10.8

Season scoring marginCHA−7.6MIA−0.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−7.6

Scores 105.3, allows 113.0 over 63 games: −7.6 a game.

MIA−0.8

Scores 110.0, allows 110.7 over 62 games: −0.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA102.1MIA113.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.4).

CHA102.1scored, −11.3 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	46.7%	54.2%	−11.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.0%	12.1%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.7%	25.1%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.153	0.194	−1.2
Everything else			+1.9

MIA113.7scored, +0.3 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.2%	+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.1%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.4%	25.1%	−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.191	0.194	−0.1
Everything else			−0.9

Defensive rating, last 10CHA120.6MIA112.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.4).

CHA120.6allowed, +7.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.0%	54.2%	−4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.6%	12.1%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.8%	25.1%	−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.209	0.194	−0.4
Everything else			+0.8

MIA112.2allowed, −1.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.0%	54.2%	−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.1%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.8%	25.1%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.162	0.194	+0.9
Everything else			+1.5

Pace, last 10average 97.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 99.8 and MIA 96.0 → average 97.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingCHA19.1MIA7.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA19.1pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
KJ Simpson	13.5	33.1	2
Tidjane Salaün	5.6	19.2	8

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-10 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MIA7.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Nikola Jović	7.0	25.0	2

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-10 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysMIA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Mar 8 against BKN.

MIA2days

Last played Mar 8 against CHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 8	BKN	105–102	40-98	11-34	14-16	10	18	122.1	115.9	87.0
Mar 7	CLE	117–118	44-92	13-37	16-21	12	10	114.7	115.7	102.0
Mar 5	MIN	110–125	42-95	12-42	14-18	13	14	114.6	130.2	96.0
Mar 3	GSW	101–119	34-86	11-40	22-33	17	6	98.1	113.3	104.0
Mar 1	WAS	100–113	41-93	14-42	4-6	17	9	100.0	113.0	100.0
Feb 27	@DAL	96–103	40-98	7-27	9-13	15	10	95.0	100.0	102.0
Feb 25	@GSW	92–128	33-89	11-40	15-18	24	16	90.2	125.5	102.0
Feb 24	@SAC	88–130	30-85	10-40	18-24	19	14	88.9	131.3	99.0
Feb 22	@POR	88–141	34-98	5-32	15-21	15	12	83.8	134.3	105.0
Feb 20	@DEN	115–129	43-99	15-37	14-17	10	14	113.9	126.5	101.5

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 8	CHI	109–114	41-97	13-43	14-19	9	7	103.8	108.6	105.0
Mar 7	MIN	104–106	41-89	14-34	8-11	9	7	109.5	112.8	94.5
Mar 5	@CLE	107–112	36-83	13-36	22-25	13	9	108.1	113.1	99.0
Mar 3	WAS	106–90	39-82	13-37	15-18	11	5	108.2	91.8	98.0
Mar 2	NYK	112–116	45-84	11-35	11-16	12	3	112.0	116.0	90.6
Feb 28	IND	125–120	48-84	17-32	12-13	14	12	134.4	129.0	93.0
Feb 26	ATL	131–109	45-76	23-42	18-22	14	8	139.4	116.0	94.0
Feb 24	@ATL	86–98	27-84	7-40	25-27	17	13	88.7	102.1	96.5
Feb 23	@MIL	113–120	41-88	9-31	22-26	9	10	115.3	123.7	97.5
Feb 21	@TOR	120–111	46-90	13-36	15-18	12	8	117.6	108.8	92.4

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

21%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored MIA

15 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −3 for MIA

16th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

336th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.56 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	MIA
Final score	105	102
Field goals	36–86 · 41.9%	39–85 · 45.9%
Three-pointers	11–44 · 25.0%	10–31 · 32.3%
Free throws	22–23 · 95.7%	14–20 · 70.0%
Rebounds	36	46
Assists	26	24
Turnovers	10	16
Steals	10	7
Blocks	6	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+12	−3	−15
Total points	220	207	−13
CHA points	104	105	+1
MIA points	116	102	−14

Recent form before this game