2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers

Saturday, February 22, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 4–0@POR 3–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	105	88	−17
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home)	113	141	+28

Forecast: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	POR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1298	1445
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+217
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−5.5	−5.7
Games played this season	54	56
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	106.3	115.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.2	111.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	16.8
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1298POR1445

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1298

Ended last season at 1321 → started this one at 1366
First 44 games: −41.1
Last 10 games: −26.5

LLAC104–112−4.5
LDEN104–107−2.2
LWAS114–124−17.4
LMIL102–112−5.9
WSAS117–116+5.4
L@DET102–112−3.1
L@BKN89–97−5.0
L@ORL86–102−5.9
W@LAL100–97+13.8
L@DEN115–129−1.7

POR1445

Ended last season at 1296 → started this one at 1347
First 46 games: +30.0
Last 10 games: +68.3

WMIL125–112+17.9
WORL119–90+19.2
WPHX127–108+18.3
WPHX121–119+4.9
WIND112–89+25.0
WSAC108–102+7.2
L@MIN98–114−5.4
L@DEN117–146−7.3
L@DEN121–132−3.5
LLAL102–110−8.0

Season scoring marginCHA−5.5POR−5.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−5.5

Scores 106.3, allows 111.8 over 54 games: −5.5 a game.

POR−5.7

Scores 109.1, allows 114.7 over 56 games: −5.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA106.3POR115.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

CHA106.3scored, −6.8 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	48.9%	54.2%	−7.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.2%	+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.4%	25.0%	−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.176	0.194	−0.5
Everything else			+2.0

POR115.5scored, +2.3 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.6%	54.2%	−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.2%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.5%	25.0%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.231	0.194	+1.1
Everything else			+0.6

Defensive rating, last 10CHA114.2POR111.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

CHA114.2allowed, +1.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	54.2%	+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.2%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.7%	25.0%	−3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.157	0.194	+1.0
Everything else			+1.9

POR111.7allowed, −1.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.3%	54.2%	−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.2%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.2%	25.0%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.220	0.194	−0.8
Everything else			+1.6

Pace, last 10average 98.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 97.0 and POR 99.1 → average 98.1 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingCHA0.0POR16.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-22 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

POR16.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Deandre Ayton	16.8	30.8	8

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-22 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysPOR2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Feb 20 against DEN.

POR2days

Last played Feb 20 against LAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 20	@DEN	115–129	43-99	15-37	14-17	10	14	113.9	126.5	101.5
Feb 19	@LAL	100–97	33-91	18-53	16-17	17	6	98.0	96.0	101.5
Feb 12	@ORL	86–102	32-81	8-26	14-15	12	1	92.5	109.7	93.0
Feb 10	@BKN	89–97	32-78	6-31	19-28	17	9	95.7	103.2	93.5
Feb 9	@DET	102–112	34-78	15-32	19-23	14	5	109.7	121.7	92.5
Feb 7	SAS	117–116	47-101	17-38	6-6	11	11	121.9	119.6	96.5
Feb 5	MIL	102–112	38-88	11-34	15-20	8	7	109.7	121.7	92.5
Feb 3	WAS	114–124	39-89	11-29	25-28	10	9	112.9	120.4	102.0
Feb 1	DEN	104–107	41-95	9-26	13-17	12	13	104.0	108.1	99.5
Jan 31	LAC	104–112	42-96	7-30	13-15	9	10	105.1	115.5	98.0

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 20	LAL	102–110	38-86	12-37	14-21	17	6	99.0	105.8	103.5
Feb 12	@DEN	121–132	43-94	14-38	21-29	11	14	116.3	124.5	105.0
Feb 10	@DEN	117–146	40-88	15-37	22-26	16	9	114.7	146.0	101.0
Feb 8	@MIN	98–114	37-92	7-35	17-22	17	16	97.0	111.8	101.5
Feb 6	SAC	108–102	39-90	16-40	14-18	13	10	111.3	104.1	97.5
Feb 4	IND	112–89	41-92	14-37	16-17	18	15	114.3	91.8	97.5
Feb 3	PHX	121–119	40-89	16-40	25-30	12	14	117.5	115.5	93.3
Feb 1	PHX	127–108	46-89	9-31	26-31	9	10	123.3	104.9	103.0
Jan 30	ORL	119–90	41-78	12-25	25-31	12	9	132.2	97.8	91.0
Jan 28	MIL	125–112	45-88	12-28	23-28	13	17	128.9	114.3	97.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

71%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

POR was the forecast favorite

45 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual +53 for POR

998th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

6th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.34 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	POR
Final score	88	141
Field goals	34–98 · 34.7%	51–87 · 58.6%
Three-pointers	5–32 · 15.6%	20–43 · 46.5%
Free throws	15–21 · 71.4%	19–27 · 70.4%
Rebounds	37	57
Assists	19	37
Turnovers	15	18
Steals	12	11
Blocks	7	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (POR)	+8	+53	+45
Total points	218	229	+11
CHA points	105	88	−17
POR points	113	141	+28

Recent form before this game