The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 25

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks

Wednesday, October 25, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

BOS 0–0@NYK 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: BOS 35 percent, NYK 65 percent. BOS Celtics 35% proj. 106 · final 108 NYK Knicks · home 65% proj. 111 · final 104
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
BOS Boston Celtics 106 108 +2
NYK New York Knicks (home) 111 104 −7

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 65% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputBOSNYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16161566
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +20
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +5.9+2.6
Games played this season 00
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.4108.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.1108.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 93.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 55
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingBOS1616NYK1566

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

BOS1616

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1654 → started this one at 1616
  2. No games played yet this season.

NYK1566

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1588 → started this one at 1566
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginBOS+5.9NYK+2.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

BOS+5.9

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+5.9) = +5.9

NYK+2.6

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+2.6) = +2.6

Offensive rating, last 10BOS111.4NYK108.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

BOS111.4scored, −2.7 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.6%−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%11.9%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.1%23.8%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.210+0.1
Everything else+0.1

NYK108.0scored, −6.0 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)49.6%54.6%−7.5
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%11.9%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.0%23.8%+2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2550.210+1.3
Everything else−1.7
Defensive rating, last 10BOS112.1NYK108.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

BOS112.1allowed, −1.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.6%+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%11.9%−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.3%23.8%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.210+0.3
Everything else−0.3

NYK108.4allowed, −5.7 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.4%54.6%+6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%11.9%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.0%23.8%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.210+0.1
Everything else−0.6
Pace, last 10average 93.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

BOS 94.0 and NYK 92.5 → average 93.2 (league 2022-23: 99.6)

Rotation points missingBOS0.0NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-10-25 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-10-25 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestBOS5 daysNYK5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

BOS5days

Last played May 29 against MIA (149 days, capped at 5).

NYK5days

Last played May 12 against MIA (166 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 29MIA84–10332-829-4211-13151091.3110.892.5
May 27@MIA104–10334-787-3529-341212115.6114.490.0
May 25MIA110–9740-7916-3914-19912125.0111.587.5
May 23@MIA116–9943-8418-4512-18107122.1105.394.5
May 21@MIA102–12839-9811-4213-171521103.0130.698.5
May 19MIA105–11137-7910-3521-24156109.4115.696.0
May 17MIA116–12342-8110-2922-29159119.6126.897.0
May 14PHI112–8841-8715-3315-1877120.495.792.5
May 11@PHI95–8633-7815-3514-1617699.089.696.0
May 9PHI103–11533-8312-3825-3489108.4121.195.0

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 12@MIA92–9627-7110-3528-32128104.5106.789.0
May 10MIA112–10335-7113-3429-401814119.1110.893.5
May 8@MIA101–10937-769-2818-24168108.6117.293.0
May 6@MIA86–10531-918-4016-22131488.7109.496.5
May 2MIA111–10537-8216-4021-301011122.0118.090.0
Apr 30MIA101–10841-867-3412-201312106.3113.795.0
Apr 26@CLE106–9537-859-2923-291017116.5104.491.0
Apr 23CLE102–9338-848-2918-281017113.3103.390.0
Apr 21CLE99–7939-8310-3311-181411104.284.094.5
Apr 18@CLE90–10729-797-2925-30171396.8116.392.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
35%
pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner
the forecast favored NYK
9 pts
margin miss
forecast +5, actual −4 for NYK
87th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
634th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.04 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statBOSNYK
Final score108104
Field goals37–77 · 48.1%36–97 · 37.1%
Three-pointers12–39 · 30.8%18–41 · 43.9%
Free throws22–26 · 84.6%14–26 · 53.8%
Rebounds4647
Assists1824
Turnovers139
Steals69
Blocks110

How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+5−4−9
Total points217212−5
BOS points106108+2
NYK points111104−7

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
BOS30213126–108
NYK18282731–104

Recent form before this game

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
May 29 vs MIA L 84–103
May 27 at MIA W 104–103
May 25 vs MIA W 110–97
May 23 at MIA W 116–99
May 21 at MIA L 102–128

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
May 12 at MIA L 92–96
May 10 vs MIA W 112–103
May 8 at MIA L 101–109
May 6 at MIA L 86–105
May 2 vs MIA W 111–105

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 5 2022-23 NYK at BOS NYK 131 – 129 BOS
Feb 27 2022-23 BOS at NYK BOS 94 – 109 NYK
Jan 26 2022-23 NYK at BOS NYK 120 – 117 BOS
Nov 5 2022-23 BOS at NYK BOS 133 – 118 NYK
Jan 8 2021-22 NYK at BOS NYK 75 – 99 BOS