2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks

Saturday, November 11, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

MIA 0–0@ATL 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIA Miami Heat	112	117	+5
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home)	123	109	−14

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MIA	ATL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1554	1544
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+60
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.0	+1.9
Games played this season	8	8
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	105.8	119.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.3	115.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	41.3	0.0
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMIA1554ATL1544

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MIA1554

Ended last season at 1600 → started this one at 1575
This season's 8 games: −21.3

WDET103–102+0.9
L@BOS111–119−5.6
L@MIN90–106−14.1
L@MIL114–122−7.9
LBKN105–109−9.5
WWAS121–114+3.9
WLAL108–107+3.1
W@MEM108–102+7.9

ATL1544

Ended last season at 1512 → started this one at 1509
This season's 8 games: +35.1

L@CHA110–116−8.4
LNYK120–126−8.1
W@MIL127–110+21.8
WMIN127–113+9.7
WWAS130–121+5.0
W@NOP123–105+19.6
L@OKC117–126−8.6
W@ORL120–119+4.1

Season scoring marginMIA−1.0ATL+1.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MIA−1.0

Scores 107.5, allows 110.1 over 8 games: −2.6 a game.

40% this season (−2.6) + 60% last season (+0.1) = −1.0

ATL+1.9

Scores 121.8, allows 117.0 over 8 games: +4.8 a game.

40% this season (+4.8) + 60% last season (−0.1) = +1.9

Offensive rating, last 10MIA105.8ATL119.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 112.1).

MIA105.8scored, −6.3 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.2%	53.7%	−3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.5%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.2%	24.4%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.193	0.199	−0.2
Everything else			−0.7

ATL119.0scored, +6.9 vs league

Factor	ATL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	53.7%	+1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.5%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.6%	24.4%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.230	0.199	+0.9
Everything else			+2.1

Defensive rating, last 10MIA109.3ATL115.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 112.1).

MIA109.3allowed, −2.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.2%	53.7%	−2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.5%	+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.4%	24.4%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.163	0.199	+1.1
Everything else			+1.4

ATL115.5allowed, +3.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.2%	53.7%	−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	12.5%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.2%	24.4%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.178	0.199	+0.6
Everything else			+1.0

Pace, last 10average 100.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MIA 98.8 and ATL 102.3 → average 100.5 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.7)

Rotation points missingMIA41.3ATL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MIA41.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Tyler Herro	22.9	34.0	8
Jimmy Butler III	18.4	33.4	7

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-11 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-11 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMIA3 daysATL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MIA3days

Last played Nov 8 against MEM.

ATL2days

Last played Nov 9 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 8	@MEM	108–102	35-77	11-28	27-32	19	9	108.0	103.0	99.5
Nov 6	LAL	108–107	41-88	12-37	14-16	17	11	109.1	108.1	99.0
Nov 3	WAS	121–114	48-80	13-27	12-14	19	7	118.6	111.8	102.0
Nov 1	BKN	105–109	39-91	13-38	14-18	16	11	102.9	104.8	103.0
Oct 30	@MIL	114–122	41-86	13-34	19-20	14	7	108.6	116.2	105.0
Oct 28	@MIN	90–106	35-87	12-38	8-14	14	9	91.8	107.1	98.5
Oct 27	@BOS	111–119	38-89	16-33	19-23	12	11	112.1	119.0	99.5
Oct 25	DET	103–102	37-92	8-22	21-26	7	16	108.4	106.3	95.5
Jun 12	@DEN	89–94	33-96	9-35	14-16	8	11	93.7	97.9	95.5
Jun 9	DEN	95–108	35-78	8-25	17-20	14	8	104.4	118.7	91.0

ATL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 9	@ORL	120–119	41-85	15-39	23-30	17	8	115.4	114.4	104.0
Nov 6	@OKC	117–126	38-102	14-42	27-32	15	25	109.3	118.9	106.5
Nov 4	@NOP	123–105	45-93	14-41	19-24	11	19	129.5	109.4	95.5
Nov 1	WAS	130–121	46-92	9-32	29-32	20	14	118.2	109.0	110.5
Oct 30	MIN	127–113	48-86	14-30	17-18	9	4	130.9	114.1	98.0
Oct 29	@MIL	127–110	47-93	15-37	18-22	17	13	122.1	107.8	103.0
Oct 27	NYK	120–126	42-87	12-32	24-30	14	9	111.1	118.9	107.0
Oct 25	@CHA	110–116	39-93	5-29	27-33	12	12	105.8	111.5	104.0
Apr 27	BOS	120–128	44-94	15-35	17-22	10	12	122.4	130.6	98.0
Apr 25	@BOS	119–117	45-96	19-41	10-10	8	6	125.3	120.6	96.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

25%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner

the forecast favored ATL

19 pts

margin miss

forecast +11, actual −8 for ATL

12th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

225th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.38 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIA	ATL
Final score	117	109
Field goals	41–84 · 48.8%	38–87 · 43.7%
Three-pointers	12–38 · 31.6%	18–46 · 39.1%
Free throws	23–25 · 92.0%	15–18 · 83.3%
Rebounds	39	48
Assists	23	23
Turnovers	15	21
Steals	10	6
Blocks	4	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)	+11	−8	−19
Total points	235	226	−9
MIA points	112	117	+5
ATL points	123	109	−14

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
MIA	41	22	30	24	–	117
ATL	24	28	30	27	–	109

Recent form before this game

Miami Heat

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 8	at MEM	W 108–102
Nov 6	vs LAL	W 108–107
Nov 3	vs WAS	W 121–114
Nov 1	vs BKN	L 105–109
Oct 30	at MIL	L 114–122

Atlanta Hawks

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 9	at ORL	W 120–119
Nov 6	at OKC	L 117–126
Nov 4	at NOP	W 123–105
Nov 1	vs WAS	W 130–121
Oct 30	vs MIN	W 127–113

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Mar 6 2022-23	ATL at MIA	ATL 128 – 130 MIA
Mar 4 2022-23	ATL at MIA	ATL 109 – 117 MIA
Jan 16 2022-23	MIA at ATL	MIA 113 – 121 ATL
Nov 27 2022-23	MIA at ATL	MIA 106 – 98 ATL
Apr 26 2021-22	ATL at MIA	ATL 94 – 97 MIA