The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 25

2022-23 · Playoffs · Final

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics

Tuesday, April 25, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

ATL 1–5@BOS 5–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 24 percent, BOS 76 percent. ATL Hawks 24% proj. 107 · final 119 BOS Celtics · home 76% proj. 118 · final 117
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 107 119 +12
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 118 117 −1

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputATLBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15091671
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +232
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.0+6.5
Games played this season 8686
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.8118.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.5108.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 22.40.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1509BOS1671

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1509

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1522 → started this one at 1517
  2. First 76 games: −20.7
  3. Last 10 games: +13.4
  • L@BKN107–124−10.4
  • WDAL132–130+3.5
  • W@CHI123–105+23.8
  • WWAS134–116+8.7
  • LPHI131–136−6.9
  • L@BOS114–120−2.9
  • L@BOS99–112−4.4
  • L@BOS106–119−4.2
  • WBOS130–122+12.8
  • LBOS121–129−6.6

BOS1671

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1695 → started this one at 1646
  2. First 76 games: −26.8
  3. Last 10 games: +51.9
  • W@MIL140–99+37.7
  • WUTA122–114+2.3
  • L@PHI101–103−4.1
  • WTOR97–93+3.1
  • WTOR121–102+7.6
  • WATL120–114+2.9
  • WATL112–99+4.4
  • WATL119–106+4.2
  • L@ATL122–130−12.8
  • W@ATL129–121+6.6
Season scoring marginATL−0.0BOS+6.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL−0.0

Scores 118.2, allows 118.2 over 86 games: −0.0 a game.

BOS+6.5

Scores 118.1, allows 111.5 over 86 games: +6.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10ATL113.8BOS118.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

ATL113.8scored, −0.3 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.0%54.7%−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.0%+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.6%23.8%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.210−0.4
Everything else−0.6

BOS118.4scored, +4.4 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.6%54.7%+6.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.0%−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.3%23.8%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1560.210−1.6
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10ATL115.5BOS108.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

ATL115.5allowed, +1.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.9%54.7%−5.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.0%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.4%23.8%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1720.210+1.1
Everything else+1.0

BOS108.1allowed, −6.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.5%54.7%+6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.0%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.3%23.8%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1420.210+2.0
Everything else+0.5
Pace, last 10average 101.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 103.0 and BOS 100.0 → average 101.5 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingATL22.4BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL22.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Dejounte Murray22.437.39

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-25 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Apr 23 against BOS.

BOS2days

Last played Apr 23 against ATL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 23BOS121–12943-9814-3721-241211113.1120.6107.0
Apr 21BOS130–12251-9115-3413-161811125.0118.4103.5
Apr 18@BOS106–11943-10116-484-81519105.0115.5102.0
Apr 15@BOS99–11238-985-2918-22111496.1107.7103.5
Apr 9@BOS114–12044-9711-3915-19916116.3122.498.0
Apr 7PHI131–13651-9210-3319-28204109.2112.4109.1
Apr 5WAS134–11643-8413-3035-401612125.2108.4107.0
Apr 4@CHI123–10548-8610-2817-19167120.6104.0101.5
Apr 2DAL132–13051-10812-3518-22916115.8115.0102.8
Mar 31@BKN107–12439-918-3721-231116111.5130.595.5

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 23@ATL129–12146-8916-4021-25169120.6113.1107.0
Apr 21@ATL122–13045-9221-4811-16126118.4125.0103.5
Apr 18ATL119–10648-8615-338-10145115.5105.0102.0
Apr 15ATL112–9942-8813-3315-181612107.796.1103.5
Apr 9ATL120–11442-8925-5411-141512122.4116.398.0
Apr 7TOR121–10245-8115-4416-211913127.4106.395.5
Apr 5TOR97–9338-8911-3810-181511100.095.997.0
Apr 4@PHI101–10338-9115-4510-16813113.5115.789.0
Mar 31UTA122–11442-9617-5121-221110117.3109.6104.0
Mar 30@MIL140–9951-9122-4316-2087141.498.0100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
24%
pregame chance the forecast gave ATL, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
13 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −2 for BOS
22nd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
381st
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLBOS
Final score119117
Field goals45–96 · 46.9%49–92 · 53.3%
Three-pointers19–41 · 46.3%12–38 · 31.6%
Free throws10–10 · 100.0%7–13 · 53.8%
Rebounds3443
Assists2631
Turnovers89
Steals51
Blocks49

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+11−2−13
Total points225236+11
ATL points107119+12
BOS points118117−1

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Apr 23 vs BOS L 121–129
Apr 21 vs BOS W 130–122
Apr 18 at BOS L 106–119
Apr 15 at BOS L 99–112
Apr 9 at BOS L 114–120

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Apr 23 at ATL W 129–121
Apr 21 at ATL L 122–130
Apr 18 vs ATL W 119–106
Apr 15 vs ATL W 112–99
Apr 9 vs ATL W 120–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 23 2022-23 BOS at ATL BOS 129 – 121 ATL
Apr 21 2022-23 BOS at ATL BOS 122 – 130 ATL
Apr 18 2022-23 ATL at BOS ATL 106 – 119 BOS
Apr 15 2022-23 ATL at BOS ATL 99 – 112 BOS
Apr 9 2022-23 ATL at BOS ATL 114 – 120 BOS