2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks

Saturday, January 13, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

WAS 0–0@ATL 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	113	127	+14
ATL Atlanta Hawks (home)	121	99	−22

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	WAS	ATL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1314	1465
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+221
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−10.8	−1.8
Games played this season	37	37
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.9	115.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	122.4	122.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	3	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1314ATL1465

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1314

Ended last season at 1436 → started this one at 1452
First 27 games: −90.2
Last 10 games: −48.1

L@GSW118–129−3.7
LORL119–127−6.3
LTOR102–132−19.7
WBKN110–104+9.9
LATL126–130−4.9
L@CLE101–140−7.8
L@CLE90–114−5.0
LNYK105–121−5.4
LOKC128–136−3.0
L@IND104–112−2.2

ATL1465

Ended last season at 1512 → started this one at 1509
First 27 games: +3.1
Last 10 games: −47.2

L@MIA113–122−6.2
LMEM119–125−12.1
L@CHI113–118−5.5
LSAC110–117−10.1
W@WAS130–126+4.9
WOKC141–138+7.8
L@IND116–150−15.1
L@ORL110–117−5.4
WPHI139–132+9.9
LIND108–126−15.4

Season scoring marginWAS−10.8ATL−1.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−10.8

Scores 115.2, allows 125.9 over 37 games: −10.8 a game.

ATL−1.8

Scores 122.3, allows 124.0 over 37 games: −1.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10WAS108.9ATL115.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

WAS108.9scored, −6.2 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.9%	54.7%	−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	11.7%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.0%	24.6%	−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.155	0.205	−1.4
Everything else			+0.3

ATL115.3scored, +0.1 vs league

Factor	ATL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.5%	54.7%	−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	11.7%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.9%	24.6%	+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.224	0.205	+0.5
Everything else			−0.3

Defensive rating, last 10WAS122.4ATL122.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.1).

WAS122.4allowed, +7.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.6%	54.7%	−5.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	11.7%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.4%	24.6%	−3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.205	+0.3
Everything else			+0.8

ATL122.3allowed, +7.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.6%	54.7%	−7.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	11.7%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.9%	24.6%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.186	0.205	+0.6
Everything else			+0.7

Pace, last 10average 101.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 101.5 and ATL 101.9 → average 101.7 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingWAS0.0ATL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-13 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-13 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestWAS3 daysATL1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS3days

Last played Jan 10 against IND.

ATL1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 12 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 10	@IND	104–112	38-88	7-31	21-30	13	9	103.0	109.8	101.5
Jan 8	OKC	128–136	44-89	15-32	25-29	14	10	125.5	132.0	102.5
Jan 6	NYK	105–121	40-85	13-37	12-20	20	9	105.0	118.6	101.0
Jan 5	@CLE	90–114	35-84	9-30	11-15	16	4	91.8	117.5	97.5
Jan 3	@CLE	101–140	42-101	12-35	5-11	8	9	105.2	144.3	96.5
Dec 31	ATL	126–130	46-98	17-53	17-21	9	6	115.6	120.4	108.5
Dec 29	BKN	110–104	46-91	15-38	3-7	6	7	117.0	111.8	93.5
Dec 27	TOR	102–132	42-90	8-33	10-15	16	10	99.0	126.9	103.5
Dec 26	ORL	119–127	43-87	16-42	17-21	20	10	111.2	118.7	107.0
Dec 22	@GSW	118–129	44-97	11-35	19-24	9	9	115.7	124.0	103.0

ATL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 12	IND	108–126	40-89	11-30	17-23	14	11	108.0	126.0	100.0
Jan 10	PHI	139–132	48-102	12-34	31-42	12	14	124.1	117.9	101.4
Jan 7	@ORL	110–117	42-91	9-30	17-29	12	8	103.8	109.3	96.5
Jan 5	@IND	116–150	40-93	10-42	26-30	14	13	108.4	141.5	106.5
Jan 3	OKC	141–138	48-95	14-39	31-33	11	15	131.8	129.0	107.0
Dec 31	@WAS	130–126	47-95	12-32	24-37	12	11	120.4	115.6	108.5
Dec 29	SAC	110–117	37-94	15-43	21-25	15	18	110.0	117.0	100.0
Dec 26	@CHI	113–118	41-89	13-45	18-21	15	12	115.3	119.2	98.5
Dec 23	MEM	119–125	45-96	13-43	16-20	10	13	119.0	125.0	100.0
Dec 22	@MIA	113–122	42-96	19-54	10-14	13	12	111.9	122.0	100.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

30%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored ATL

36 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −28 for ATL

30th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

21st

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	ATL
Final score	127	99
Field goals	47–97 · 48.5%	32–93 · 34.4%
Three-pointers	12–32 · 37.5%	11–40 · 27.5%
Free throws	21–26 · 80.8%	24–33 · 72.7%
Rebounds	54	50
Assists	32	21
Turnovers	12	14
Steals	10	9
Blocks	9	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Atlanta Hawks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ATL)	+8	−28	−36
Total points	234	226	−8
WAS points	113	127	+14
ATL points	121	99	−22

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
WAS	30	28	41	28	–	127
ATL	25	22	24	28	–	99

Recent form before this game