2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers

Sunday, April 9, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 2–3@POR 9–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	127	157	+30
POR Portland Trail Blazers (home)	118	101	−17

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	POR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1577	1332
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−176
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.1	−3.4
Games played this season	81	81
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	119.7	106.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.3	120.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	50.8
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1577POR1332

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1577

Ended last season at 1699 → started this one at 1649
First 71 games: −115.5
Last 10 games: +43.7

L@MEM119–133−7.9
W@HOU121–108+6.3
W@DAL127–125+5.4
WPHI120–112+11.3
LMIN96–99−7.7
WNOP120–109+7.5
WSAS130–115+2.6
L@DEN110–112−3.3
WOKC136–125+6.5
W@SAC119–97+23.0

POR1332

Ended last season at 1249 → started this one at 1312
First 71 games: +69.5
Last 10 games: −49.9

W@UTA127–115+19.0
LCHI96–124−17.0
LOKC112–118−6.2
LNOP90–124−19.8
LSAC80–120−16.2
LSAC114–138−9.6
W@MIN107–105+9.9
L@MEM109–119−2.4
L@SAS127–129−4.4
L@LAC125–136−3.2

Season scoring marginGSW+1.1POR−3.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW+1.1

Scores 118.5, allows 117.3 over 81 games: +1.1 a game.

POR−3.4

Scores 113.6, allows 116.9 over 81 games: −3.4 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10GSW119.7POR106.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.2).

GSW119.7scored, +5.5 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.3%	54.7%	+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.6%	12.0%	−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	31.3%	23.8%	+3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.204	0.211	−0.2
Everything else			+0.7

POR106.6scored, −7.6 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.7%	54.7%	−4.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.0%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.5%	23.8%	−2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.172	0.211	−1.1
Everything else			−0.6

Defensive rating, last 10GSW113.3POR120.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.2).

GSW113.3allowed, −0.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.7%	+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	12.0%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.0%	23.8%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.194	0.211	+0.5
Everything else			+0.6

POR120.2allowed, +6.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.5%	54.7%	−5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.0%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.0%	23.8%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.212	0.211	−0.0
Everything else			+0.6

Pace, last 10average 101.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 100.2 and POR 102.0 → average 101.1 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingGSW0.0POR50.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-09 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

POR50.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Keon Johnson	15.3	26.3	3
Nassir Little	11.2	23.9	5
Drew Eubanks	11.0	25.3	9
Cam Reddish	7.5	22.1	4
Matisse Thybulle	5.7	25.7	7

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-09 17:30 ET. 15 rotation players.

RestGSW2 daysPOR1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW2days

Last played Apr 7 against SAC.

POR1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 8 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 7	@SAC	119–97	41-78	16-36	21-24	24	10	117.8	97.0	100.5
Apr 4	OKC	136–125	47-95	20-47	22-30	13	19	132.0	123.8	102.0
Apr 2	@DEN	110–112	42-105	9-42	17-17	15	22	110.0	112.0	100.0
Mar 31	SAS	130–115	47-93	21-49	15-21	14	14	131.3	115.0	99.5
Mar 28	NOP	120–109	43-82	18-40	16-22	18	11	118.8	109.0	100.5
Mar 26	MIN	96–99	34-82	15-40	13-17	16	6	96.0	99.0	100.0
Mar 24	PHI	120–112	42-88	18-50	18-24	11	10	120.0	110.9	100.5
Mar 22	@DAL	127–125	50-90	12-39	15-18	13	11	128.3	125.0	99.5
Mar 20	@HOU	121–108	44-88	17-48	16-19	18	16	119.8	105.9	101.5
Mar 18	@MEM	119–133	39-91	13-35	28-34	13	15	122.7	135.7	97.5

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 8	@LAC	125–136	47-89	14-32	17-23	10	7	121.4	132.0	103.0
Apr 6	@SAS	127–129	51-96	10-28	15-18	15	8	117.6	119.4	108.0
Apr 4	@MEM	109–119	42-97	14-42	11-17	8	13	106.9	116.7	102.0
Apr 2	@MIN	107–105	43-93	9-30	12-20	10	11	108.1	106.1	99.0
Mar 31	SAC	114–138	40-85	19-38	15-23	18	9	114.0	135.3	101.0
Mar 29	SAC	80–120	30-93	9-39	11-12	14	8	77.7	116.5	103.0
Mar 27	NOP	90–124	35-90	7-33	13-15	12	6	90.9	124.0	99.5
Mar 26	OKC	112–118	39-82	14-32	20-27	18	8	109.8	116.8	101.5
Mar 24	CHI	96–124	37-86	6-31	16-18	12	8	100.0	126.5	97.0
Mar 22	@UTA	127–115	45-93	13-41	24-30	8	7	119.8	108.5	106.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

72%

pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner

GSW was the forecast favorite

47 pts

margin miss

forecast −9, actual −56 for POR

1122nd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

2nd

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.33 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	POR
Final score	157	101
Field goals	58–96 · 60.4%	38–95 · 40.0%
Three-pointers	27–49 · 55.1%	9–35 · 25.7%
Free throws	14–16 · 87.5%	16–24 · 66.7%
Rebounds	58	30
Assists	47	25
Turnovers	15	14
Steals	13	5
Blocks	6	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Portland Trail Blazers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (POR)	−9	−56	−47
Total points	245	258	+13
GSW points	127	157	+30
POR points	118	101	−17

Recent form before this game