2022-23 · Playoffs · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors

Tuesday, May 2, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

LAL 0–1@GSW 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	110	117	+7
GSW Golden State Warriors (home)	120	112	−8

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	GSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1599	1595
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+66
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.1	+1.8
Games played this season	88	89
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.2	117.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	107.0	107.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	4	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1599GSW1595

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1599

Ended last season at 1413 → started this one at 1435
First 78 games: +119.9
Last 10 games: +44.5

W@UTA135–133+3.9
L@LAC118–125−7.3
WPHX121–107+11.4
WUTA128–117+4.2
W@MEM128–112+19.2
L@MEM93–103−8.4
WMEM111–101+7.9
WMEM117–111+5.5
L@MEM99–116−12.3
WMEM125–85+20.4

GSW1595

Ended last season at 1699 → started this one at 1649
First 79 games: −101.2
Last 10 games: +46.8

WOKC136–125+6.5
W@SAC119–97+23.0
W@POR157–101+16.3
L@SAC123–126−5.4
L@SAC106–114−8.5
WSAC114–97+9.6
WSAC126–125+2.4
W@SAC123–116+8.8
LSAC99–118−25.0
W@SAC120–100+19.1

Season scoring marginLAL+1.1GSW+1.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL+1.1

Scores 116.8, allows 115.8 over 88 games: +1.1 a game.

GSW+1.8

Scores 118.7, allows 116.9 over 89 games: +1.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAL113.2GSW117.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

LAL113.2scored, −0.9 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.3%	54.6%	−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.0%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.3%	23.8%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.191	0.210	−0.5
Everything else			−1.0

GSW117.4scored, +3.3 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.7%	54.6%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.0%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.1%	23.8%	+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.209	0.210	−0.0
Everything else			−0.6

Defensive rating, last 10LAL107.0GSW107.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

LAL107.0allowed, −7.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.4%	54.6%	+6.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.0%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.7%	23.8%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.172	0.210	+1.1
Everything else			+0.6

GSW107.5allowed, −6.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	48.7%	54.6%	+9.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.1%	12.0%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.3%	23.8%	−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.210	+0.3
Everything else			−0.0

Pace, last 10average 102.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 101.6 and GSW 104.2 → average 102.9 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingLAL0.0GSW0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-05-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

GSW0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-05-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestLAL4 daysGSW2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL4days

Last played Apr 28 against MEM.

GSW2days

Last played Apr 30 against SAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 28	MEM	125–85	49-91	15-44	12-15	13	9	120.2	82.5	103.5
Apr 26	@MEM	99–116	37-92	10-39	15-20	13	14	97.1	116.0	101.0
Apr 24	MEM	117–111	41-94	10-36	25-31	15	13	107.3	100.9	99.2
Apr 22	MEM	111–101	41-90	7-28	22-27	13	11	108.8	100.0	101.5
Apr 19	@MEM	93–103	35-85	7-26	16-21	12	11	97.9	107.3	95.5
Apr 16	@MEM	128–112	49-92	16-37	14-16	14	10	128.0	110.9	100.5
Apr 9	UTA	128–117	47-97	18-45	16-21	10	10	121.9	110.4	105.5
Apr 7	PHX	121–107	45-92	18-36	13-17	15	10	116.3	102.9	104.0
Apr 5	@LAC	118–125	45-89	12-29	16-24	14	10	112.4	119.0	105.0
Apr 4	@UTA	135–133	48-96	12-34	27-35	11	11	121.6	119.8	100.5

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 30	@SAC	120–100	43-100	15-46	19-30	7	18	123.7	102.0	97.5
Apr 28	SAC	99–118	32-86	10-32	25-35	18	11	90.8	110.3	108.0
Apr 26	@SAC	123–116	50-96	11-38	12-19	14	11	116.0	109.4	106.0
Apr 23	SAC	126–125	45-90	14-34	22-24	11	8	121.2	117.9	105.0
Apr 20	SAC	114–97	40-100	16-50	18-23	11	18	111.8	94.2	102.5
Apr 17	@SAC	106–114	39-82	13-40	15-18	20	9	102.9	110.7	103.0
Apr 15	@SAC	123–126	43-90	16-50	21-27	15	9	116.0	120.0	105.5
Apr 9	@POR	157–101	58-96	27-49	14-16	15	9	141.4	90.2	111.5
Apr 7	@SAC	119–97	41-78	16-36	21-24	24	10	117.8	97.0	100.5
Apr 4	OKC	136–125	47-95	20-47	22-30	13	19	132.0	123.8	102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

26%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner

the forecast favored GSW

15 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −5 for GSW

33rd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

296th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	GSW
Final score	117	112
Field goals	43–92 · 46.7%	43–106 · 40.6%
Three-pointers	6–25 · 24.0%	21–53 · 39.6%
Free throws	25–29 · 86.2%	5–6 · 83.3%
Rebounds	53	49
Assists	24	30
Turnovers	8	8
Steals	4	5
Blocks	10	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)	+10	−5	−15
Total points	230	229	−1
LAL points	110	117	+7
GSW points	120	112	−8

Recent form before this game