2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards

Sunday, April 9, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

HOU 3–0@WAS 0–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
HOU Houston Rockets	113	114	+1
WAS Washington Wizards (home)	119	109	−10

Forecast: Washington Wizards to win, 65% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	HOU	WAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1320	1449
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+199
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−8.0	−1.2
Games played this season	81	81
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.5	114.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	123.6	118.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	21.3	86.9
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingHOU1320WAS1449

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

HOU1320

Ended last season at 1311 → started this one at 1359
First 71 games: −58.2
Last 10 games: +19.4

LGSW108–121−6.3
L@MEM125–130−1.2
L@MEM114–151−4.1
L@CLE91–108−2.0
L@NYK115–137−3.2
L@BKN114–123−2.4
WDET121–115+5.9
LLAL109–134−8.4
WDEN124–103+32.7
W@CHA112–109+8.4

WAS1449

Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
First 71 games: +31.9
Last 10 games: −20.9

L@ORL112–122−9.0
LDEN104–118−11.0
WSAS136–124+4.2
L@TOR104–114−5.7
WBOS130–111+23.6
LORL109–116−10.9
L@NYK109–118−3.9
LMIL128–140−8.1
L@ATL116–134−8.7
WMIA114–108+8.6

Season scoring marginHOU−8.0WAS−1.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

HOU−8.0

Scores 110.7, allows 118.7 over 81 games: −8.0 a game.

WAS−1.2

Scores 113.2, allows 114.4 over 81 games: −1.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10HOU113.5WAS114.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.2).

HOU113.5scored, −0.7 vs league

Factor	HOU	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.0%	54.7%	−4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.0%	−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.5%	23.8%	+3.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.204	0.211	−0.2
Everything else			−0.2

WAS114.6scored, +0.4 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.7%	+1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.0%	+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.2%	23.8%	−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.180	0.211	−0.9
Everything else			−0.3

Defensive rating, last 10HOU123.6WAS118.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.2).

HOU123.6allowed, +9.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.7%	54.7%	−7.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.0%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.9%	23.8%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.211	0.211	+0.0
Everything else			+0.4

WAS118.6allowed, +4.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.5%	54.7%	−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.0%	12.0%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.9%	23.8%	−0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.191	0.211	+0.6
Everything else			+0.7

Pace, last 10average 100.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

HOU 99.7 and WAS 101.5 → average 100.6 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingHOU21.3WAS86.9

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

HOU21.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kevin Porter Jr.	21.3	35.9	10

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-09 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

WAS86.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kristaps Porziņģis	27.2	31.2	5
Deni Avdija	15.3	33.8	7
Daniel Gafford	13.4	26.9	9
Monté Morris	11.0	23.3	5
Delon Wright	10.8	26.8	8
Jay Huff	9.2	17.2	5

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-09 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestHOU2 daysWAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

HOU2days

Last played Apr 7 against CHA.

WAS2days

Last played Apr 7 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

HOU

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 7	@CHA	112–109	42-89	7-21	21-28	18	14	107.7	104.8	104.0
Apr 4	DEN	124–103	47-102	12-31	18-24	13	20	120.4	102.0	102.0
Apr 2	LAL	109–134	44-102	13-34	8-10	8	16	110.1	134.0	99.5
Mar 31	DET	121–115	38-83	11-31	34-45	12	14	119.8	116.2	100.0
Mar 29	@BKN	114–123	46-98	9-30	13-21	10	20	116.3	126.8	97.5
Mar 27	@NYK	115–137	42-87	7-26	24-29	14	13	115.0	134.3	101.0
Mar 26	@CLE	91–108	35-80	6-25	15-18	16	12	100.0	117.4	91.5
Mar 24	@MEM	114–151	47-87	7-23	13-21	15	10	110.7	148.0	102.5
Mar 22	@MEM	125–130	48-93	12-33	17-23	16	20	128.9	132.7	97.5
Mar 20	GSW	108–121	39-93	10-36	20-24	17	13	105.9	119.8	101.5

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 7	MIA	114–108	39-84	7-33	29-37	16	12	108.6	103.8	104.5
Apr 5	@ATL	116–134	45-94	6-28	20-26	14	12	108.4	125.2	107.0
Apr 4	MIL	128–140	50-99	13-27	15-21	9	9	118.5	128.4	108.5
Apr 2	@NYK	109–118	39-79	16-37	15-18	18	5	109.0	118.0	100.0
Mar 31	ORL	109–116	41-105	17-50	10-12	12	15	105.8	113.7	102.5
Mar 28	BOS	130–111	54-99	13-37	9-13	9	6	128.7	108.8	101.5
Mar 26	@TOR	104–114	38-86	16-36	12-20	16	12	104.0	115.2	99.5
Mar 24	SAS	136–124	51-85	15-30	19-26	7	6	138.8	124.0	99.0
Mar 22	DEN	104–118	44-87	4-26	12-16	7	10	114.3	128.3	91.5
Mar 21	@ORL	112–122	42-83	10-32	18-23	14	4	109.8	120.8	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

35%

pregame chance the forecast gave HOU, the winner

the forecast favored WAS

11 pts

margin miss

forecast +6, actual −5 for WAS

135th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

474th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.06 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	HOU	WAS
Final score	114	109
Field goals	44–90 · 48.9%	41–97 · 42.3%
Three-pointers	6–21 · 28.6%	14–45 · 31.1%
Free throws	20–28 · 71.4%	13–21 · 61.9%
Rebounds	51	51
Assists	24	28
Turnovers	15	12
Steals	8	11
Blocks	6	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Houston Rockets · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)	+6	−5	−11
Total points	232	223	−9
HOU points	113	114	+1
WAS points	119	109	−10

Recent form before this game

Houston Rockets

Date	Opponent	Result
Apr 7	at CHA	W 112–109
Apr 4	vs DEN	W 124–103
Apr 2	vs LAL	L 109–134
Mar 31	vs DET	W 121–115
Mar 29	at BKN	L 114–123

Washington Wizards

Date	Opponent	Result
Apr 7	vs MIA	W 114–108
Apr 5	at ATL	L 116–134
Apr 4	vs MIL	L 128–140
Apr 2	at NYK	L 109–118
Mar 31	vs ORL	L 109–116

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Jan 25 2022-23	WAS at HOU	WAS 108 – 103 HOU
Mar 21 2021-22	WAS at HOU	WAS 97 – 115 HOU
Jan 5 2021-22	HOU at WAS	HOU 114 – 111 WAS