2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets

Friday, March 17, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

PHI 0–1@CHA 5–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers	114	121	+7
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home)	108	82	−26

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 65% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	PHI	CHA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1646	1392
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−185
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+4.4	−5.8
Games played this season	68	71
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	124.6	105.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	117.7	110.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	29.4
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1646CHA1392

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1646

Ended last season at 1596 → started this one at 1572
First 58 games: +30.1
Last 10 games: +44.0

LBOS107–110−6.3
LMIA99–101−7.5
W@MIA119–96+19.0
L@DAL126–133−9.6
W@MIL133–130+8.3
W@IND147–143+3.9
W@MIN117–94+17.2
WPOR120–119+1.1
WWAS112–93+6.3
W@CLE118–109+11.6

CHA1392

Ended last season at 1544 → started this one at 1533
First 61 games: −132.5
Last 10 games: −8.9

WMIA108–103+8.8
WDET117–106+5.9
LPHX91–105−10.8
LORL106–117−11.7
L@BKN86–102−6.5
W@NYK112–105+18.7
W@DET113–103+9.4
LUTA111–119−10.3
LCLE108–114−4.5
LCLE104–120−7.9

Season scoring marginPHI+4.4CHA−5.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI+4.4

Scores 115.1, allows 110.7 over 68 games: +4.4 a game.

CHA−5.8

Scores 111.6, allows 117.5 over 71 games: −5.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHI124.6CHA105.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.9).

PHI124.6scored, +10.7 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.3%	54.6%	+7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.1%	12.1%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.6%	23.8%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.316	0.213	+3.0
Everything else			−0.7

CHA105.9scored, −8.0 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.5%	54.6%	−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.1%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.5%	23.8%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.213	−0.4
Everything else			−2.0

Defensive rating, last 10PHI117.7CHA110.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.9).

PHI117.7allowed, +3.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.8%	54.6%	−3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	12.1%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.1%	23.8%	+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.215	0.213	−0.1
Everything else			−0.2

CHA110.5allowed, −3.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.8%	54.6%	+5.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	12.1%	−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.7%	23.8%	+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.209	0.213	+0.1
Everything else			+0.1

Pace, last 10average 97.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 95.8 and CHA 99.5 → average 97.6 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingPHI0.0CHA29.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-17 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

CHA29.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
LaMelo Ball	18.5	30.4	2
Mark Williams	10.9	25.4	7

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-17 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestPHI2 daysCHA3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI2days

Last played Mar 15 against CLE.

CHA3days

Last played Mar 14 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 15	@CLE	118–109	39-75	17-36	23-27	18	13	126.9	118.5	92.5
Mar 12	WAS	112–93	41-80	11-29	19-23	8	9	121.7	102.2	91.5
Mar 10	POR	120–119	43-83	11-30	23-29	9	12	126.3	124.0	95.5
Mar 7	@MIN	117–94	40-81	15-25	22-23	15	8	120.6	97.9	96.5
Mar 6	@IND	147–143	48-82	16-34	35-38	11	5	140.0	136.2	105.0
Mar 4	@MIL	133–130	42-84	18-37	31-37	5	9	138.5	135.4	96.0
Mar 2	@DAL	126–133	45-78	12-27	24-29	14	5	126.0	133.0	100.0
Mar 1	@MIA	119–96	41-83	15-39	22-22	8	9	128.0	103.2	93.0
Feb 27	MIA	99–101	32-73	10-27	25-28	18	9	107.6	112.2	91.0
Feb 25	BOS	107–110	35-78	9-27	28-35	10	8	110.3	114.6	96.5

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 14	CLE	104–120	43-76	6-23	12-15	19	6	107.2	125.0	96.5
Mar 12	CLE	108–114	41-80	10-21	16-22	19	7	106.9	115.2	100.0
Mar 11	UTA	111–119	40-98	17-40	14-15	7	11	113.3	120.2	98.5
Mar 9	@DET	113–103	43-86	8-24	19-32	12	13	111.9	103.0	100.5
Mar 7	@NYK	112–105	42-85	12-32	16-21	10	10	117.9	112.9	94.0
Mar 5	@BKN	86–102	33-88	8-30	12-15	10	5	85.1	101.0	101.0
Mar 3	ORL	106–117	38-78	9-24	21-25	21	8	106.0	118.2	99.5
Mar 1	PHX	91–105	32-88	9-33	18-28	13	12	90.1	104.0	101.0
Feb 27	DET	117–106	43-83	13-26	18-22	16	7	117.0	106.0	100.0
Feb 25	MIA	108–103	38-88	10-31	22-27	15	11	103.8	99.0	104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

65%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner

PHI was the forecast favorite

33 pts

margin miss

forecast −6, actual −39 for CHA

924th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

19th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHI	CHA
Final score	121	82
Field goals	46–92 · 50.0%	29–86 · 33.7%
Three-pointers	10–32 · 31.3%	5–35 · 14.3%
Free throws	19–25 · 76.0%	19–26 · 73.1%
Rebounds	62	35
Assists	24	20
Turnovers	13	13
Steals	9	10
Blocks	9	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)	−6	−39	−33
Total points	222	203	−19
PHI points	114	121	+7
CHA points	108	82	−26

Recent form before this game