The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 7

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks

Tuesday, March 7, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 4–1@NYK 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHA 20 percent, NYK 80 percent. CHA Hornets 20% proj. 105 · final 112 NYK Knicks · home 80% proj. 118 · final 105
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHA Charlotte Hornets 105 112 +7
NYK New York Knicks (home) 118 105 −13

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputCHANYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13861613
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +297
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −6.1+3.1
Games played this season 6666
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.1124.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.8113.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 24.10.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1386NYK1613

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1386

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1544 → started this one at 1533
  2. First 56 games: −155.3
  3. Last 10 games: +8.5
  • L@BOS116–127−2.4
  • LDEN105–119−6.8
  • WATL144–138+10.4
  • WSAS120–110+5.1
  • W@MIN121–113+16.5
  • WMIA108–103+8.8
  • WDET117–106+5.9
  • LPHX91–105−10.8
  • LORL106–117−11.7
  • L@BKN86–102−6.5

NYK1613

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1519 → started this one at 1514
  2. First 56 games: +19.1
  3. Last 10 games: +79.7
  • L@PHI108–119−7.0
  • WUTA126–120+4.6
  • WBKN124–106+11.8
  • W@ATL122–101+19.7
  • W@WAS115–109+8.8
  • WNOP128–106+9.0
  • WBOS109–94+13.1
  • WBKN142–118+8.9
  • W@MIA122–120+4.5
  • W@BOS131–129+6.3
Season scoring marginCHA−6.1NYK+3.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−6.1

Scores 111.8, allows 117.9 over 66 games: −6.1 a game.

NYK+3.1

Scores 115.5, allows 112.4 over 66 games: +3.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA107.1NYK124.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.9).

CHA107.1scored, −6.8 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.6%−2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.1%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.3%23.8%−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.213+0.1
Everything else−1.4

NYK124.0scored, +10.1 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)60.0%54.6%+8.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%12.1%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.3%23.8%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2030.213−0.3
Everything else+0.9
Defensive rating, last 10CHA109.8NYK113.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.9).

CHA109.8allowed, −4.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.6%+3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.1%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.9%23.8%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1800.213+0.9
Everything else−0.1

NYK113.1allowed, −0.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.7%54.6%+2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)9.6%12.1%−3.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.7%23.8%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2160.213−0.1
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 100.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 103.8 and NYK 97.3 → average 100.5 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingCHA24.1NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA24.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
LaMelo Ball24.136.27

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-07 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-07 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysNYK2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Mar 5 against BKN.

NYK2days

Last played Mar 5 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 5@BKN86–10233-888-3012-1510585.1101.0101.0
Mar 3ORL106–11738-789-2421-25218106.0118.299.5
Mar 1PHX91–10532-889-3318-28131290.1104.0101.0
Feb 27DET117–10643-8313-2618-22167117.0106.0100.0
Feb 25MIA108–10338-8810-3122-271511103.899.0104.0
Feb 24@MIN121–11343-9210-2825-281111114.2107.6105.5
Feb 15SAS120–11043-9614-3520-291515112.1100.9108.0
Feb 13ATL144–13853-8420-3718-23173132.1127.8108.5
Feb 11DEN105–11940-858-3217-29145100.0113.3105.0
Feb 10@BOS116–12745-938-2318-261311110.5119.8105.5

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 5@BOS131–12947-9515-4122-321911113.9112.295.2
Mar 3@MIA122–12047-8117-4111-17116128.4126.395.0
Mar 1BKN142–11854-8920-3514-21167135.2112.4105.0
Feb 27BOS109–9437-7812-3123-34117116.098.994.5
Feb 25NOP128–10645-8819-4819-231911123.1101.9104.0
Feb 24@WAS115–10945-9212-2913-161212119.8112.496.5
Feb 15@ATL122–10145-9614-4318-22910119.6100.0101.5
Feb 13BKN124–10645-8215-3419-2686139.3116.590.0
Feb 11UTA126–12043-9512-3628-38620128.6123.797.5
Feb 10@PHI108–11943-8111-3211-16124116.1126.693.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
20%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
the forecast favored NYK
20 pts
margin miss
forecast +13, actual −7 for NYK
12th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
156th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.59 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHANYK
Final score112105
Field goals42–85 · 49.4%38–89 · 42.7%
Three-pointers12–32 · 37.5%11–40 · 27.5%
Free throws16–21 · 76.2%18–24 · 75.0%
Rebounds4239
Assists2718
Turnovers108
Steals23
Blocks54

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+13−7−20
Total points223217−6
CHA points105112+7
NYK points118105−13

Recent form before this game

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Mar 5 at BKN L 86–102
Mar 3 vs ORL L 106–117
Mar 1 vs PHX L 91–105
Feb 27 vs DET W 117–106
Feb 25 vs MIA W 108–103

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Mar 5 at BOS W 131–129
Mar 3 at MIA W 122–120
Mar 1 vs BKN W 142–118
Feb 27 vs BOS W 109–94
Feb 25 vs NOP W 128–106

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 9 2022-23 NYK at CHA NYK 121 – 102 CHA
Oct 26 2022-23 CHA at NYK CHA 131 – 134 NYK
Mar 30 2021-22 CHA at NYK CHA 125 – 114 NYK
Mar 23 2021-22 NYK at CHA NYK 121 – 106 CHA
Jan 17 2021-22 CHA at NYK CHA 97 – 87 NYK