The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 6

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers

Friday, January 6, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

CHI 2–3@PHI 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHI 26 percent, PHI 74 percent. CHI Bulls 26% proj. 106 · final 126 PHI 76ers · home 74% proj. 116 · final 112
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHI Chicago Bulls 106 126 +20
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) 116 112 −4

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputCHIPHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14771601
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +194
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −1.0+3.9
Games played this season 3837
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 118.1117.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.1110.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.034.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHI1477PHI1601

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHI1477

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1426 → started this one at 1444
  2. First 28 games: +22.7
  3. Last 10 games: +10.0
  • L@MIN126–150−13.2
  • W@MIA113–103+16.6
  • W@ATL110–108+6.6
  • W@NYK118–117+6.7
  • LHOU118–133−24.9
  • WMIL119–113+8.9
  • WDET132–118+6.0
  • LCLE102–103−3.9
  • L@CLE134–145−5.6
  • WBKN121–112+12.8

PHI1601

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1596 → started this one at 1572
  2. First 27 games: −4.6
  3. Last 10 games: +32.9
  • WGSW118–106+9.0
  • WTOR104–101+2.7
  • WDET113–93+4.4
  • WLAC119–114+3.7
  • W@NYK119–112+9.9
  • L@WAS111–116−9.7
  • L@NOP116–127−8.4
  • W@OKC115–96+11.5
  • WNOP120–111+7.2
  • WIND129–126+2.6
Season scoring marginCHI−1.0PHI+3.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHI−1.0

Scores 114.5, allows 115.5 over 38 games: −1.0 a game.

PHI+3.9

Scores 112.6, allows 108.7 over 37 games: +3.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHI118.1PHI117.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.9).

CHI118.1scored, +5.3 vs league

FactorCHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.1%54.2%+4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%12.4%+2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.3%23.8%−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2280.213+0.5
Everything else−0.4

PHI117.3scored, +4.4 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.6%54.2%+2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.4%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.3%23.8%−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2410.213+0.8
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10CHI119.1PHI110.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.9).

CHI119.1allowed, +6.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.6%54.2%−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.4%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%23.8%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.213+0.6
Everything else−0.2

PHI110.8allowed, −2.1 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.2%+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%12.4%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.0%23.8%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.213−0.3
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 98.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHI 99.0 and PHI 97.6 → average 98.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHI0.0PHI34.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-06 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

PHI34.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Joel Embiid34.035.39

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-06 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCHI2 daysPHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHI2days

Last played Jan 4 against BKN.

PHI2days

Last played Jan 4 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 4BKN121–11243-818-2027-29156114.2106.7105.5
Jan 2@CLE134–14547-9510-3330-3476122.9134.398.3
Dec 31CLE102–10339-817-2117-24159103.0105.198.5
Dec 30DET132–11853-9212-2714-151312136.1121.697.0
Dec 28MIL119–11342-929-2326-30137106.3101.8101.0
Dec 26HOU118–13345-9213-3515-2188118.0131.7100.5
Dec 23@NYK118–11745-9314-3114-18411128.3125.892.5
Dec 21@ATL110–10843-867-2417-22118108.9106.9101.0
Dec 20@MIA113–10340-7313-3120-24165118.9108.495.0
Dec 18@MIN126–15046-8816-3818-24116124.8148.5101.0

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 4IND129–12648-9814-3619-22914122.9120.095.1
Jan 2NOP120–11141-8615-3523-2897123.7112.198.0
Dec 31@OKC115–9646-9911-3412-171314112.794.1102.0
Dec 30@NOP116–12742-7514-3418-22183119.6129.697.5
Dec 27@WAS111–11639-846-3127-311510111.0116.0100.0
Dec 25@NYK119–11239-7718-3923-2965132.2121.791.0
Dec 23LAC119–11447-8812-2913-1496126.6121.394.0
Dec 21DET113–9341-9311-3720-221213109.790.3103.0
Dec 19TOR104–10132-8015-4225-27164101.099.092.8
Dec 16GSW118–10639-8515-3825-311511113.5103.9103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
26%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHI, the winner
the forecast favored PHI
24 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −14 for PHI
33rd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
86th
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHIPHI
Final score126112
Field goals48–84 · 57.1%40–92 · 43.5%
Three-pointers20–34 · 58.8%18–41 · 43.9%
Free throws10–17 · 58.8%14–18 · 77.8%
Rebounds4538
Assists3328
Turnovers117
Steals36
Blocks43

How the model does with these teams over time: Chicago Bulls · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)+10−14−24
Total points222238+16
CHI points106126+20
PHI points116112−4

Recent form before this game

Chicago Bulls

DateOpponentResult
Jan 4 vs BKN W 121–112
Jan 2 at CLE L 134–145
Dec 31 vs CLE L 102–103
Dec 30 vs DET W 132–118
Dec 28 vs MIL W 119–113

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Jan 4 vs IND W 129–126
Jan 2 vs NOP W 120–111
Dec 31 at OKC W 115–96
Dec 30 at NOP L 116–127
Dec 27 at WAS L 111–116

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 29 2022-23 PHI at CHI PHI 114 – 109 CHI
Mar 7 2021-22 CHI at PHI CHI 106 – 121 PHI
Feb 6 2021-22 PHI at CHI PHI 119 – 108 CHI
Nov 6 2021-22 PHI at CHI PHI 114 – 105 CHI
Nov 3 2021-22 CHI at PHI CHI 98 – 103 PHI