The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 26

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics

Thursday, January 26, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

NYK 1–2@BOS 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NYK 26 percent, BOS 74 percent. NYK Knicks 26% proj. 109 · final 120 BOS Celtics · home 74% proj. 119 · final 117
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NYK New York Knicks 109 120 +11
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 119 117 −2

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNYKBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15301632
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +172
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.0+5.7
Games played this season 4949
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 118.3114.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.1109.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 10.910.7
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNYK1530BOS1632

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NYK1530

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1519 → started this one at 1514
  2. First 39 games: +45.8
  3. Last 10 games: −30.0
  • W@TOR112–108+6.1
  • LMIL107–111−9.6
  • WIND119–113+4.5
  • W@WAS112–108+6.0
  • W@DET117–104+7.2
  • LTOR121–123−8.1
  • LWAS105–116−18.8
  • L@ATL124–139−12.2
  • L@TOR116–125−9.4
  • WCLE105–103+4.3

BOS1632

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1695 → started this one at 1646
  2. First 39 games: −30.0
  3. Last 10 games: +15.4
  • W@SAS121–116+3.3
  • WCHI107–99+4.1
  • WNOP125–114+6.9
  • W@BKN109–98+13.3
  • W@CHA122–106+6.5
  • W@CHA130–118+5.0
  • WGSW121–118+2.3
  • W@TOR106–104+3.1
  • L@ORL98–113−23.3
  • L@MIA95–98−5.8
Season scoring marginNYK+2.0BOS+5.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NYK+2.0

Scores 114.1, allows 112.1 over 49 games: +2.0 a game.

BOS+5.7

Scores 117.6, allows 112.0 over 49 games: +5.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NYK118.3BOS114.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.5).

NYK118.3scored, +4.8 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.4%−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)9.7%12.3%+3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.4%23.9%+3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.213+0.5
Everything else−1.3

BOS114.9scored, +1.4 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.4%−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.3%+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.7%23.9%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1890.213−0.7
Everything else+1.5
Defensive rating, last 10NYK120.1BOS109.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.5).

NYK120.1allowed, +6.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.6%54.4%+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)8.6%12.3%−5.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.5%23.9%−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2150.213−0.1
Everything else−2.4

BOS109.7allowed, −3.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.7%54.4%+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)9.6%12.3%−3.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)18.9%23.9%+2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1550.213+1.7
Everything else+1.1
Pace, last 10average 96.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NYK 95.0 and BOS 97.8 → average 96.4 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingNYK10.9BOS10.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NYK10.9pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Mitchell Robinson5.931.27
Evan Fournier5.016.03

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-26 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

BOS10.7pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Marcus Smart10.729.56

Source: official injury report, 2023-01-26 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestNYK2 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NYK2days

Last played Jan 24 against CLE.

BOS2days

Last played Jan 24 against MIA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 24CLE105–10337-7517-3314-21159111.7110.893.5
Jan 22@TOR116–12540-8218-4118-261614120.8128.996.5
Jan 20@ATL124–13949-8313-3013-17129130.5147.994.5
Jan 18WAS105–11640-967-2618-27920111.7123.494.0
Jan 16TOR121–12342-999-3128-351120119.8121.891.5
Jan 15@DET117–10440-8812-3025-31618127.2111.892.5
Jan 13@WAS112–10841-928-2922-31714116.7113.795.5
Jan 11IND119–11338-8415-4228-331212115.5109.7103.0
Jan 9MIL107–11138-10011-4120-22718111.5118.195.0
Jan 6@TOR112–10839-8316-3718-261113117.9114.994.5

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 24@MIA95–9832-7410-3221-27175101.1103.294.5
Jan 23@ORL98–11336-8318-468-11188102.1118.995.5
Jan 21@TOR106–10438-8516-3514-151511110.4105.197.5
Jan 19GSW121–11843-10813-4122-301718104.3100.9105.5
Jan 16@CHA130–11843-8720-4324-251114136.8125.594.5
Jan 14@CHA122–10647-9919-539-10714127.1110.496.0
Jan 12@BKN109–9841-8612-3615-171312114.7104.394.5
Jan 11NOP125–11444-9115-4422-25911123.8114.0100.5
Jan 9CHI107–9938-8711-4120-2199112.6104.295.0
Jan 7@SAS121–11647-9515-3412-18148116.3110.5104.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
26%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
13 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −3 for BOS
33rd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
381st
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNYKBOS
Final score120117
Field goals44–96 · 45.8%41–100 · 41.0%
Three-pointers13–38 · 34.2%16–46 · 34.8%
Free throws19–23 · 82.6%19–23 · 82.6%
Rebounds5054
Assists1722
Turnovers813
Steals54
Blocks54

How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+10−3−13
Total points228237+9
NYK points109120+11
BOS points119117−2

Recent form before this game

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Jan 24 vs CLE W 105–103
Jan 22 at TOR L 116–125
Jan 20 at ATL L 124–139
Jan 18 vs WAS L 105–116
Jan 16 vs TOR L 121–123

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Jan 24 at MIA L 95–98
Jan 23 at ORL L 98–113
Jan 21 at TOR W 106–104
Jan 19 vs GSW W 121–118
Jan 16 at CHA W 130–118

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 5 2022-23 BOS at NYK BOS 133 – 118 NYK
Jan 8 2021-22 NYK at BOS NYK 75 – 99 BOS
Jan 6 2021-22 BOS at NYK BOS 105 – 108 NYK
Dec 18 2021-22 NYK at BOS NYK 107 – 114 BOS
Oct 20 2021-22 BOS at NYK BOS 134 – 138 NYK